2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts

The 2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Massachusetts voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

A New England state, Massachusetts had been a Democratic leaning state since 1928, and a Democratic stronghold since 1960, and is still considered a deeply blue state today.^[a] Democrats have consistently defeated Republicans by large margins in Massachusetts since 1996. In 2020, Biden won the state by more than 33%, the largest margin since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.^[2]^[3]^[4] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.^[5] The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.^[6]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Massachusetts Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Democratic primary, March 5, 2024^[7]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	533,096	80.5%	91		91
No Preference	60,236	9.1%	1		1
Dean Phillips	29,728	4.5%
Marianne Williamson	20,402	3.1%
Other candidates	10,135	1.5%
Cenk Uygur (write-in)	82	<0.1%
Blank ballots	8,930	1.3%
Total:	662,609	100%	92		92

Republican primary

The Massachusetts Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Republican primary, March 5, 2024^[8]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	343,189	59.56%	40	0	40
Nikki Haley	211,440	36.69%	0	0	0
No Preference	5,717	0.99%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	5,217	0.91%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	3,981	0.69%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	1,738	0.30%	0	0	0
Other candidates	1,674	0.29%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	619	0.11%	0	0	0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	527	0.09%	0	0	0
Blank ballots	2,148	0.37%	0	0	0
Total:	576,250	100.00%	40	0	40

Libertarian primary

The Massachusetts Libertarian primary was held on March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Libertarian primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage
No Preference	3,982	36.45%
Chase Oliver	1,453	13.30%
Jacob Hornberger	1,089	9.97%
Michael Rectenwald	546	5.00%
Lars Mapstead	399	3.65%
Mike ter Maat	314	2.87%
All Others	2,161	19.78%
Blank ballots	980	8.97%
Total:	10,924	100.00%
Source:^[9]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[10]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[11]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[12]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[13]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[14]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN^[15]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist^[16]	Safe D	June 12, 2024
538^[17]	Solid D	June 11, 2024
RCP^[18]	Solid D	June 26, 2024

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Suffolk University^[19]^[A]	July 16–18, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	29%	24%
University of New Hampshire^[20]	May 16–20, 2024	526 (LV)	± 4.3%	68%	32%	–
University of Massachusetts Lowell^[21]	October 18–25, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 4.1%	58%	32%	10%
Emerson College^[22]	September 7–8, 2022	708 (LV)	± 3.6%	54%	34%	12%
University of Massachusetts Lowell^[23]	June 7–15, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 4.0%	60%	31%	9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire^[20]	May 16–20, 2024	526 (LV)	± 4.3%	55%	26%	10%	1%	2%	6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
YouGov/UMass Amherst^[24]	May 17–30, 2024	700 (A)	± 4.4%	48%	27%	9%	16%
Suffolk University^[25]^[A]	April 16–20, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	22%	8%	18%
Suffolk University^[26]	February 2–5, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	26%	9%	21%
YouGov^[27]^[B]	October 13–20, 2023	700 (V)	± 5.1%	43%	21%	17%	19%

Notes

^ George H.W. Bush was the last Republican presidential nominee to win any counties in Massachusetts in 1988.
^ ^a ^b ^c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe
^ Poll sponsored by the University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Political Science & WCVB

References

^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
^ Chasmar, Jessica (June 13, 2022). "Biden 'running for re-election' in 2024, White House says". Foxnews.com. Retrieved June 25, 2022.
^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
^ "2024 President Democratic Primary". State of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
^ "2024 President Republican Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
^ "2024 President Libertarian Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. The Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
^ "'I think he cannot win.' New Globe/Suffolk poll shows strong unhappiness with Biden as the nominee. - The Boston Globe". BostonGlobe.com.
^ ^a ^b "University of New Hampshire".
^ "University of Massachusetts Lowell" (PDF).
^ Mumford, Camille (September 8, 2022). "Massachusetts 2022: Healey Leads Diehl By 18 Points; Majority of Massachusetts Voters Approve of Biden". Emerson Polling.
^ "University of Massachusetts Lowell" (PDF).
^ YouGov/UMass Amherst
^ "404 - Suffolk University". www.suffolk.edu. {{cite web}}: Cite uses generic title (help)
^ "Suffolk University" (PDF).
^ YouGov

[2] George H.W. Bush was the last Republican presidential nominee to win any counties in Massachusetts in 1988.

[key-20] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[bglobe-22] Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe

[31] Poll sponsored by the University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Political Science & WCVB

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

[3] Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.

[4] Chasmar, Jessica (June 13, 2022). "Biden 'running for re-election' in 2024, White House says". Foxnews.com. Retrieved June 25, 2022.

[5] Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.

[BidenPull-6] "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.

[7] Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.

[8] "2024 President Democratic Primary". State of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 28, 2024.

[9] "2024 President Republican Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved May 20, 2024.

[10] "2024 President Libertarian Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 12, 2024.

[11] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. The Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[12] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[13] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[14] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[15] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[16] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

[17] "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.

[18] Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.

[19] "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.

[21] "'I think he cannot win.' New Globe/Suffolk poll shows strong unhappiness with Biden as the nominee. - The Boston Globe". BostonGlobe.com.

[MA-auto-23] "University of New Hampshire".

[24] "University of Massachusetts Lowell" (PDF).

[25] Mumford, Camille (September 8, 2022). "Massachusetts 2022: Healey Leads Diehl By 18 Points; Majority of Massachusetts Voters Approve of Biden". Emerson Polling.

[26] "University of Massachusetts Lowell" (PDF).

[27] YouGov/UMass Amherst

[28] "404 - Suffolk University". www.suffolk.edu. {{cite web}}: Cite uses generic title (help)

[29] "Suffolk University" (PDF).

[30] YouGov

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