2024 United States presidential election in Texas
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| Elections in Texas |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Texas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas has 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats.[1]
The second most populous state, Texas is generally considered to be a red state, not having voted Democratic in a presidential election since Southerner Jimmy Carter won it in 1976 and with Republicans holding all statewide offices since 1999. Texas' location in the American South and largely in the greater Bible Belt has given the GOP the upper hand in the state in recent decades.[2][3] Texas is considered by some to be potentially competitive, as the state has not backed a Republican for President by double digits since it favored Mitt Romney in 2012, which can be largely credited to the fast-growing Texas Triangle trending leftwards in some recent elections, namely in the closely-contested 2018 U.S. Senate race and the 2020 U.S. presidential election which both saw the Metroplex county of Tarrant and the Greater Austin counties of Williamson and Hays flip blue for the first time in decades. In the 2020 elections, predominately-Latino South Texas shifted significantly rightward, a trend that the rest of the state followed in the 2022 midterms.[4][5] Thus, Texas remains favored to stay in the GOP column in 2024.[6] Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[7] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[8] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Texan native Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Former Republican President Donald Trump is running for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after his defeat in the 2020 election.[9]
The Texas Secretary of State's office announced on August 8th that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would appear on the state ballot.[10]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Texas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state in a landslide, with minor opposition from various other candidates, particularly in the Lower Rio Grande Valley region. Biden lost Loving County, in which there was only one ballot cast for Frankie Lozada.
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
- 100%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 831,247 | 84.6% | 244 | 244 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 43,667 | 4.5% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 27,473 | 2.8% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 26,473 | 2.7% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 17,196 | 1.8% | |||
| Cenk Uygur | 16,100 | 1.6% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 11,311 | 1.2% | |||
| Star Locke | 8,602 | 0.9% | |||
| Total: | 982,069 | 100% | 272 | 272 | |
Republican primary
[edit]The Texas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump easily won the state and all of its delegates against Nikki Haley, who remained his only major opposition. Trump received the endorsements of U.S. senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, as well as Texas governor Greg Abbott, in his primary campaign.
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
- 60–70%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 1,808,269 | 77.84% | 161 | 161 | |
| Nikki Haley | 405,472 | 17.45% | |||
| Uncommitted | 45,568 | 1.96% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 36,302 | 1.56% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 10,582 | 0.46% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 8,938 | 0.38% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 2,964 | 0.13% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 2,585 | 0.11% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 2,339 | 0.10% | |||
| Total: | 2,323,019 | 100.00% | 161 | 161 | |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. independent bid
[edit]The Texas Secretary of State's office announced on August 8th that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would appear on the state ballot.[10]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[13] | Likely R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[14] | Likely R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Likely R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16] | Likely R | June 1, 2024 |
| CNN[17] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[18] | Likely R | June 13, 2024 |
| 538[19] | Likely R | July 19, 2024 |
| RCP[20] | Lean R | June 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis[21] | Likely R | August 5, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[22] | July 31 – August 13, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – |
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| YouGov[23][A] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[24] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 39% | 15%[b] |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[25] | June 25 – July 18, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Remington Research Group (R)[26] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 589 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Manhattan Institute[27] | June 25–27, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
| UT Tyler[28] | June 11–20, 2024 | 1,144 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| 931 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 43% | 9% | ||
| YouGov[29][B] | May 31 – June 9, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 39% | 15%[c] |
| YouGov[30][B] | April 12–22, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 40% | 12%[d] |
| Cygnal (R)[31] | April 4–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Marist College[32] | March 18–21, 2024 | 1,117 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 55% | 44% | 1% |
| UT Tyler[33] | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| YouGov[34][B] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 11%[e] |
| University of Houston[35] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,145 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Emerson College[36][C] | January 13–15, 2024 | 1,315 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| YouGov[37][B] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 39% | 16% |
| YouGov[38][B] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 37% | 18% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[24] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 42% | 14%[f] |
| CWS Research (R)[39] | April 17–21, 2023 | 677 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Emerson College[40] | October 17–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| Emerson College[41] | September 20–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[42] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[43] | June 8–10, 2022 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 38% | 17% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[44][D] | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,484 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 40% | 5% | – | 2% | 4%[g] |
| Manhattan Institute[27] | June 25–27, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 11%[h] |
| UT Tyler[28] | June 11–20, 2024 | 1,144 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 38% | 12% | – | 1% | 3%[i] |
| 931 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 41% | 8% | – | 1% | 3%[j] | ||
| YouGov[29][B] | May 31 – June 9, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 34% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
| YouGov[30][B] | April 12–22, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 36% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| Texas Lyceum[45] | April 12–21, 2024 | 926 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 31% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 15%[k] |
| Cygnal (R)[31] | April 4–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| UT Tyler[33] | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 37% | 13% | 6% | 3% | – |
| YouGov[34][B] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 36% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[46] | February 1–3, 2024 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 35% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Emerson College[36][C] | January 13–15, 2024 | 1,315 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 46% | 36% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| YouGov[37][B] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 34% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 12% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[47] | April 5–10, 2024 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.45% | 46% | 34% | 9% | 11%[l] |
| Marist College[32] | March 18–21, 2024 | 1,117 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 36% | 15% | 1% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[47] | April 5–10, 2024 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.45% | 48% | 36% | 3% | 13%[m] |
| YouGov[23][A] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 8%[n] |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Manchin No Labels |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs[48] | February 6–8, 2024 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 35% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 9% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Tyler[33] | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| YouGov[34][B] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 40% | 29%[o] |
| YouGov[23][A] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| YouGov[37][B] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 33% | 36% | 31% |
| YouGov[38][B] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 32% | 34% | 34% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Tyler[33] | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 33% | 36% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[46] | February 1–3, 2024 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 30% | 32% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 24% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[37][B] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
| YouGov[38][B] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 39% | 38% | 24% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[24] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 42% | 14%[p] |
| CWS Research (R)[39] | April 17–21, 2023 | 677 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights[42] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[24] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 40% | 15%[q] |
Vivek Ramaswamy vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Vivek Ramaswamy Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[37][B] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 34% | 37% | 30% |
| YouGov[38][B] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 33% | 36% | 32% |
Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[38][B] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 29% | 36% | 36% |
Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[38][B] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Texas
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Texas elections
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
- ^ "Someone else" with 9%
- ^ "Someone else" with 6%
- ^ "Someone else" with 7%
- ^ "Don't know" with 8%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 3%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 3%
- ^ "Someone else" with 5%
- ^ Jill Stein (G) with 2%; Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Undecided with 10%; Chase Oliver (L) with 3%
- ^ Libertarian candidate with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 21%
- ^ "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 3%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
- ^ "Don't know" with 10%; "Libertarian candidate" with 3%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
- ^ Poll sponsored by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ Barabak, Mark Z. (December 7, 2023). "Column: In two decades, much of the West has turned blue. Why hasn't Texas?". Los Angeles Times.
- ^ Herrera, Jack (December 4, 2023). "Why do California, Texas differ so much? Religion, priorities of white minority play huge roles, poll shows". Los Angeles Times.
- ^ "House Generic Ballot Estimates, 2008-2022". Split Ticket. April 7, 2023.
- ^ "Republican victories show Texas is still far from turning blue". The Texas Tribune. November 9, 2022.
As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still don't have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas, [Drew Landry] said. Rural Texas still rules the day. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
- ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
- ^ a b Salinas, Juan (August 8, 2024). "Robert Kennedy Jr. will be on the 2024 Texas ballot". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved August 9, 2024.
- ^ "Texas Democratic Primary Election Results". Texas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Texas Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
- ^ Allis, Victor (August 13, 2024). "Trump Leads Harris in Texas". ActiVote. Retrieved August 14, 2024.
- ^ a b c "YouGov" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d "Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation" (PDF).
- ^ "Cruz and Trump Lead Comfortably in Texas – ActiVote".
- ^ "Exclusive: Battleground Poll Shows Biden Tanking In Key States After Disastrous Debate". www.dailywire.com. July 3, 2024.
- ^ a b "Testing Texas".
- ^ a b "UT Tyler" (PDF).
- ^ a b "YouGov" (PDF).
- ^ a b "YouGov" (PDF).
- ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ a b "Marist College" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d "UT Tyler" (PDF).
- ^ a b c "YouGov" (PDF).
- ^ "University of Houston" (PDF).
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (January 18, 2024). "Texas 2024 Poll: Allred Leads Democratic Senate Primary, Plurality are Undecided". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b c d e "YouGov" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d e f "YouGov" (PDF).
- ^ a b "23.04.24 Defend Texas Liberty Q1 2023 Texas 24 General Election Likely Voter.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 24, 2022). "Texas 2022: Abbott Holds Ten-Point Lead for Governor; Majority of Voters Support Migrant Busing". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (September 27, 2022). "Texas 2022: Greg Abbott Leads Beto O'Rourke By Eight in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
- ^ Blueprint Polling (D)
- ^ "YouGov" (PDF).
- ^ "Texas Lyceum" (PDF).
- ^ a b "The View from Texas: Presidential Voting Intention and Approval Rating (1-3 February 2024)". February 7, 2024.
- ^ a b "Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation" (PDF).
- ^ "National Public Affairs" (PDF). www.natpublicaffairs.com.
