2019 Dutch Senate election

The 2019 election to the Senate of the Netherlands was held on 27 May 2019, two months after the provincial elections.^[1]

Forum for Democracy, which took part for the first time, became the largest party. This was later undone by several party splits.

Electoral system

The Senate consists of 75 members elected every four years by the members of the States-Provincial of the country's twelve provinces, and, following a law change in 2017, electoral colleges representing the special municipalities of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba,^[5]^[6] who are in turn elected directly by the citizens two months earlier in the 2019 provincial and electoral college elections. The seats are distributed in one nationwide constituency using party-list proportional representation.^[7]

The value of each elector's vote is determined by the population of the province or special municipality which the elector represents, at a ratio of approximately 1 vote per 100 residents.

Province	Members	Population^[8]	Votes	Value per member
South Holland	55	3,674,146	36,740	668
North Holland	55	2,853,488	29,095	519
North Brabant	55	2,544,995	25,465	463
Gelderland	55	2,071,913	20,735	377
Utrecht	49	1,342,194	13,426	274
Overijssel	47	1,156,373	11,562	246
Limburg	47	1,116,127	11,139	237
Friesland	43	647,740	6,493	151
Groningen	43	584,094	5,848	136
Drenthe	41	492,179	4,920	120
Flevoland	41	416,431	4,182	102
Zeeland	39	383,073	3,822	98
Bonaire	9	20,104	198	22
Sint Eustatius	5	3,138	30	6
Saba	5	1,915	20	4

Seat projections

Polling firm	Date(s)	VVD	CDA	D66	PVV	SP	PvdA	GL	CU	PvdD	SGP	50+	OSF	DENK	FVD	Rutte III Support
Polling firm	Date(s)															Rutte III Support
ANP projection	21 Mar 2019	12	9	6	5	4	7	9	4	3	1	2	0	0	13	31	–7
Ipsos exit poll	20 Mar 2019	12	8	7	6	4	7	8	4	3	1	3	1	1	10	31	–7
Peil.nl exit poll	20 Mar 2019	12	8	6	6	5	7	7	3	3	2	2	1	1	12	29	–9
Peil.nl	19 Mar 2019	11	8	6	7	5	6	8	3	2	2	2	2	2	11	28	–10
I&O Research	15–18 Mar 2019	11	8	5	7	6	6	9	4	3	1	2	2	1	10	28	–10
Kantar Public	14–17 Mar 2019	13	7	6	6	7	5	6	4	3	2	3	2	2	9	30	–8
I&O Research	8–12 Mar 2019	12	8	5	7	7	5	9	3	2	2	3	2	1	9	28	–10
Ipsos	8–11 Mar 2019	13	7	5	9	5	6	8	3	4	2	3	2	0	8	28	–10
I&O Research	22–26 Feb 2019	11	7	6	8	7	5	10	4	3	2	3	2	1	8	28	–10
Ipsos	22–25 Feb 2019	12	7	6	8	5	5	9	4	3	2	3	2	1	8	29	–9
2015 election	26 May 2015	13	12	10	9	9	8	4	3	2	2	2	1	–	–	38	+1

Results

Electors

Results of the 20 March 2019 Dutch Provincial and Senate Electoral College elections
Party or alliance				Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	Forum for Democracy			1,057,030	14.51	86	New
	People's Party for Freedom and Democracy			1,017,937	13.97	80	–9
	CDA-affiliated		Christian Democratic Appeal	805,862	11.06	72	–17
			Bonaire Patriotic Union	1,530	0.02	2	New
			Democratic Party (Sint Eustatius)	366	0.01	5	New
		Total		807,758	11.09	79	–10
	GroenLinks			783,006	10.75	61	+31
	PvdA-affiliated		Labour Party	619,906	8.51	53	–10
			Bonaire Democratic Party	2,166	0.03	3	New
		Total		622,072	8.54	56	–7
	D66-affiliated		Democrats 66	567,363	7.79	41	–26
			Bonaire People's Movement	3,097	0.04	4	New
		Total		570,460	7.83	45	–22
	Party for Freedom			504,948	6.93	40	–26
	Socialist Party			430,096	5.90	35	–35
	CU–SGP		Christian Union	353,443	4.85	31	+2
			Reformed Political Party	179,899	2.47	14	–4
			CU–SGP joint list in North Brabant	19,466	0.27	1	–1
		Total		552,808	7.59	46	–3
	Party for the Animals			317,104	4.35	20	+2
	50PLUS-affiliated		50PLUS	265,215	3.64	17	+3
			Party for the North	10,527	0.14	2	+1
		Total		275,742	3.79	19	+4
	OSF-affiliated		Local Brabant	25,485	0.35	1	0
			Frisian National Party	23,662	0.32	4	0
			Groningers' Interests	18,556	0.25	3	0
			Local Limburg	18,474	0.25	2	+1
			Elderly Party North Holland	18,307	0.25	0	–1
			Local Parties South Holland	11,648	0.16	0	New
			Local Parties Gelderland – Code Orange	11,053	0.15	0	New
			Party for Zeeland	10,619	0.15	2	+1
			Locally Strong	9,344	0.13	1	0
			U26 Municipalities	6,530	0.09	0	New
			Frisian Provincial Interests	5,345	0.07	0	New
		Total		159,023	2.18	13	+1
	Denk			121,753	1.67	4	New
	Code Orange			24,047	0.33	0	New
	NIDA			11,347	0.16	0	New
	Seniors Brabant			9,687	0.13	0	New
	Elderly Appeal - Heart for Brabant			6,719	0.09	0	New
	Independent Party Drenthe			3,777	0.05	0	New
	Natural Frisian			2,917	0.04	0	New
	Jesus Lives			2,323	0.03	0	0
	Senior Interests			1,414	0.02	0	0
	Politically Active Elders			1,283	0.02	0	0
	Respect!			976	0.01	0	New
	Windward Islands People's Movement			547	0.01	4	New
	Saba Labour Party			110	0.00	1	New
Total				7,284,884	100.00	589	+19

Valid votes				7,284,884	99.41
Invalid/blank votes				43,014	0.59
Total votes				7,327,898	100.00
Registered voters/turnout				13,047,950	56.16
Source: Kiesraad: European Netherlands (Provincial), Bonaire (EC), Saba (EC), Sint Eustatius (EC)

Senate

Rutte III lost its majority in the senate.

Party		Unweighted Vote			Weighted Vote			Seats
Party		Votes	Faithless electors	%	Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Forum for Democracy	87	+1	14.80	27,473	15.87	New	12	+12
	People's Party for Freedom and Democracy	78	-2	13.27	26,157	15.11	–0.68	12	–1
	Christian Democratic Appeal	76	-3	12.93	19,756	11.41	–4.20	9	–3
	GroenLinks	65	+4	11.05	19,363	11.18	+5.92	8	+4
	Democrats 66	50	+5	8.50	15,154	8.75	–3.00	7	–3
	Labour Party	56	±0	9.52	14,921	8.62	–2.43	6	–2
	Party for Freedom	38	-2	6.46	11,298	6.53	–5.05	5	–4
	Socialist Party	35	±0	5.95	10,179	5.88	–6.40	4	–5
	Christian Union	33	+1	5.61	8,707	5.03	–0.58	4	+1
	Party for the Animals	20	±0	3.40	6,550	3.78	+0.62	3	+1
	50PLUS	18	–1	3.06	5,251	3.03	+0.57	2	±0
	Reformed Political Party	15	+1	2.55	4,493	2.60	–0.38	2	±0
	Independent Senate Group	13	±0	2.21	2,265	1.31	–0.26	1	±0
	DENK	4	±0	0.68	1,563	0.90	New	0	±0
	Blank list	0	±0	0.00	0	0.00	New	0	±0

Total valid votes		588			173,121			75	±0

Invalid votes		1	+1	0.00	4	0.00	±0.00
Votes cast / turnout		589	±0	100.00	173,125	100.00	±0.00
Abstentions		0	±0	0.00	0	0.00	±0.00
Registered voters		589			173,125

Sources ^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]^[14]

Results summary

Popular vote

FvD			14.51%
VVD			13.97%
CDA			11.09%
GL			10.75%
PvdA			8.54%
D66			7.83%
PVV			6.93%
SP			5.90%
CU			4.85%
PvdD			4.35%
50PLUS			3.64%
SGP			2.47%
OSF			2.18%
Denk			1.67%
CU-SGP (NB)			0.27%
Others			1.05%

Unweighted Electoral vote

FvD			14.80%
VVD			13.27%
CDA			12.93%
GL			11.05%
PvdA			9.52%
D66			8.50%
PVV			6.46%
SP			5.95%
CU			5.61%
PvdD			3.40%
50PLUS			3.06%
SGP			2.55%
OSF			2.21%
Denk			0.68%

Weighted Electoral vote

FvD			15.87%
VVD			15.11%
CDA			11.41%
GL			11.18%
D66			8.75%
PvdA			8.62%
PVV			6.53%
SP			5.88%
CU			5.03%
PvdD			3.78%
50PLUS			3.03%
SGP			2.60%
OSF			1.31%
Denk			0.90%

References

^ ^a ^b "Dag van stemming (27 mei 2019)". Kiesraad.nl (in Dutch). Archived from the original on 2 March 2020. Retrieved 21 September 2018.
^ "Annemarie Jorritsma VVD-lijsttrekker Eerste Kamerverkiezingen". NOS (in Dutch). 3 October 2018. Retrieved 5 October 2018.
^ "Oud-staatssecretaris Knapen gaat Senaatsfractie CDA leiden". NOS (in Dutch). 24 September 2018. Retrieved 5 October 2018.
^ "Hoogleraar Ethiek lijsttrekker D66 voor Eerste Kamerverkiezingen". NOS (in Dutch). 25 September 2018. Retrieved 5 October 2018.
^ "Kiesrecht voor Eerste Kamer voor Caribisch Nederland". Rijksoverheid (in Dutch). Retrieved 5 October 2018.
^ "Electoral colleges for the Senate". kiesraad.nl. Electoral Council. 24 January 2019. Retrieved 28 February 2019.
^ "Eerste Kamer". Kiesraad.nl (in Dutch). 20 April 2016. Retrieved 5 October 2018.
^ Population figures: 1 January 2019
^ "Kandidatenlijsten Eerste Kamerverkiezing 2019 onderzocht". Kiesraad.nl (in Dutch). 24 April 2019. Retrieved 25 April 2019.
^ "Stemwaarden Eerste Kamerverkiezing 2019 vastgesteld". Kiesraad.nl (in Dutch). 27 March 2019. Retrieved 25 April 2019.
^ "Provinciale Staten kiezen nu nieuwe Eerste Kamer, VVD en Forum even groot (12 zetels)". NOS (in Dutch). 27 May 2019. Retrieved 27 May 2019.
^ "Geen verrassing bij Eerste Kamerverkiezing in Overijssel: uitslag gelijk aan zetelverdeling". tubantia.nl (in Dutch). 27 May 2019. Retrieved 27 May 2019.
^ "Meeste stemmen voor CDA in de Eerste Kamer". Omroep Zeeland (in Dutch). 27 May 2019. Retrieved 27 May 2019.
^ "Stemmingen Eerste Kamerverkiezing in provincies en kiescolleges (27 mei)". Kiesraad.nl (in Dutch). 27 May 2019. Retrieved 29 May 2019.

[date-1] "Dag van stemming (27 mei 2019)". Kiesraad.nl (in Dutch). Archived from the original on 2 March 2020. Retrieved 21 September 2018.

[2] "Annemarie Jorritsma VVD-lijsttrekker Eerste Kamerverkiezingen". NOS (in Dutch). 3 October 2018. Retrieved 5 October 2018.

[3] "Oud-staatssecretaris Knapen gaat Senaatsfractie CDA leiden". NOS (in Dutch). 24 September 2018. Retrieved 5 October 2018.

[4] "Hoogleraar Ethiek lijsttrekker D66 voor Eerste Kamerverkiezingen". NOS (in Dutch). 25 September 2018. Retrieved 5 October 2018.

[5] "Kiesrecht voor Eerste Kamer voor Caribisch Nederland". Rijksoverheid (in Dutch). Retrieved 5 October 2018.

[6] "Electoral colleges for the Senate". kiesraad.nl. Electoral Council. 24 January 2019. Retrieved 28 February 2019.

[7] "Eerste Kamer". Kiesraad.nl (in Dutch). 20 April 2016. Retrieved 5 October 2018.

[8] Population figures: 1 January 2019

[9] "Kandidatenlijsten Eerste Kamerverkiezing 2019 onderzocht". Kiesraad.nl (in Dutch). 24 April 2019. Retrieved 25 April 2019.

[10] "Stemwaarden Eerste Kamerverkiezing 2019 vastgesteld". Kiesraad.nl (in Dutch). 27 March 2019. Retrieved 25 April 2019.

[11] "Provinciale Staten kiezen nu nieuwe Eerste Kamer, VVD en Forum even groot (12 zetels)". NOS (in Dutch). 27 May 2019. Retrieved 27 May 2019.

[12] "Geen verrassing bij Eerste Kamerverkiezing in Overijssel: uitslag gelijk aan zetelverdeling". tubantia.nl (in Dutch). 27 May 2019. Retrieved 27 May 2019.

[13] "Meeste stemmen voor CDA in de Eerste Kamer". Omroep Zeeland (in Dutch). 27 May 2019. Retrieved 27 May 2019.

[14] "Stemmingen Eerste Kamerverkiezing in provincies en kiescolleges (27 mei)". Kiesraad.nl (in Dutch). 27 May 2019. Retrieved 29 May 2019.

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