1999 Portuguese legislative election

1999 Portuguese legislative election

10 October 1999
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly 116 seats needed for a majority
Registered	8,864,604 0.5%
Turnout	5,415,102 (61.1%) 5.2 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader António Guterres José Durão Barroso Carlos Carvalhas Party PS PSD PCP Alliance CDU Leader since 23 February 1992 2 May 1999 5 December 1992 Leader's seat Castelo Branco Lisbon Lisbon Last election 112 seats, 43.8% 88 seats, 34.1% 15 seats, 8.6% Seats won 115 81 17 Seat change 3 7 2 Popular vote 2,385,922 1,750,158 487,058 Percentage 44.1% 32.3% 9.0% Swing 0.3 pp 1.8 pp 0.4 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Paulo Portas Francisco Louçã Party CDS–PP BE Leader since 22 March 1998 24 March 1999 Leader's seat Aveiro Lisbon Last election 15 seats, 9.0% Did not contest Seats won 15 2 Seat change 0 2 Popular vote 451,643 132,333 Percentage 8.3% 2.4% Swing 0.7 pp New party
Prime Minister before election António Guterres PS Prime Minister after election António Guterres PS

The 1999 Portuguese legislative election took place on 10 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

The Socialist Party was aiming a second term under the lead of António Guterres, incumbent Prime Minister, as a good economy and Portugal's growing prestige, following the Expo 1998 and the support for the East-Timor cause, were strengthening the PS position. Polls leading up to the election predicted a comfortable PS majority government. Adding to this, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), was exiting an internal crisis after former leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa resigned in March 1999 amid disagreements with the CDS-People's Party leader, Paulo Portas, regarding a future PSD/CDS alliance for these elections. The party elected, in a snap party congress in May 1999, José Manuel Durão Barroso as new leader.

Despite opinion polls predictions, the election results were labeled as a disappointment for the Socialists as the party failed to win a historical absolute majority by just one MP and barely improved their 1995 score, just 0.3 percentage points. The disappointing PS score would create instability in Guterres second government in the years to follow. The Social Democratic Party was still away from the preferences of the majority of the Portuguese people, after the ten years cycle under the lead of Cavaco Silva that had terminated four years before, and lost 7 MPs, compared with 1995, and gathered 32 percent of the votes. The Democratic Unity Coalition achieved an important climb in the scorecard, against those who predicted its irreversible decline after the end of the Socialist Bloc in the early 1990s. The CDS-People's Party was able to hold on to its 15 MPs after tensions with the PSD earlier that year. For the first time, the Left Bloc, formed after the merger of several minor left-wing parties became represented in the parliament after electing two MPs.

Turnout in this election was very low, only being surpassed by all elections after 2009 when turnout stands below 60 percent. Overall, voter turnout was only 61 percent of voters, one of the lowest ever recorded.

Background

Leadership changes and challenges

PSD 1996 leadership election

After leading his party to two successive defeats, in the 1995 election and in the 1996 Presidential election, then PSD leader Fernando Nogueira resigned. A party congress to elect a new leader was called for late March 1996. For that leadership ballot, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced his candidacy, just a few days after saying a phrase that would become famous in Portuguese politics, "Not even if Christ descends to earth, will I run." Marcelo faced Pedro Santana Lopes, which repeated his failed bid of 1995. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was easily elected as PSD leader. The results were the following:

Ballot: 30 March 1996

Candidate		Votes	%
	Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa	603	66.4
	Pedro Santana Lopes	305	33.6
Turnout		908
Source: Results

CDS–PP 1998 leadership election

Then CDS leader, Manuel Monteiro, resigned from the leadership after the party's poor results in the 1997 local elections. Paulo Portas, which had a tense relationship with Monteiro, announced his candidacy but faced the candidate of the "Monteiro wing", Maria José Nogueira Pinto. The congress was very tense, with strong accusations between both candidates, but in the end Paulo Portas was elected as new party leader:

Ballot: 22 March 1998

Candidate		Votes	%
	Paulo Portas	WIN
	Maria José Nogueira Pinto
Turnout
Source:

PSD 1999 leadership election

Then PSD leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa plan to creat an electoral alliance with the CDS – People's Party was splitting his party, but nonetheless, the alliance was approved in a party congress in February 1999. However, at the same a time, a scandal involving CDS–PP leader Paulo Portas, the "Moderna affair", in which corrupt deals and bad management were done in Moderna University, was creating a bad mood between PSD and CDS–PP and, specially, between the two party's leaders. In late March, Paulo Portas gives an interview on SIC that precipitated Marcelo's resignation. In that interview, Portas says that the PSD needs to come clean and say if they trust the CDS leader, and that Marcelo told him that a majority of the PSD leadership doesn't like him and feels he's a liability to the alliance. Feeling betrayed and seeing that Portas was untrustworthy, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa resigned from the PSD leadership. A snap party congress was called for early May, and, as the sole candidate, José Manuel Durão Barroso was unanimously elected as the new PSD leader:

Ballot: 1 May 1999

Candidate		Votes	%
	José Manuel Durão Barroso		100.0
Turnout
Source: Results

Electoral system

Official logo of the election.

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude. The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.

For these elections, and compared with the 1995 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:

District	Number of MPs	Map
Lisbon(–1)	49	17 6 37 5 4 15 9 4 10 5 10 10 49 3 4 17 3 8 5 5 2 2
Porto	37
Braga(+1)	17
Setúbal	17
Aveiro(+1)	15
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra	10
Viseu	9
Faro	8
Viana do Castelo	6
Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real	5
Bragança, Évora and Guarda	4
Beja(–1) and Portalegre	3
Europe and Outside Europe	2

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 7th legislature (1995–1999) and that also partook in the election:

Name			Ideology	Political position	Leader	1995 result
						%	Seats
	PS	Socialist Party Partido Socialista	Social democracy Third Way	Centre-left	António Guterres	43.8%	112 / 230
	PPD/PSD	Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata	Liberal conservatism Classical liberalism	Centre-right	José Manuel Durão Barroso	34.1%	88 / 230
	CDS-PP	CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular	Christian democracy Conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	Paulo Portas	9.1%	15 / 230
	PCP	Portuguese Communist Party Partido Comunista Português	Communism Marxism–Leninism	Far-left	Carlos Carvalhas	8.6%	13 / 230
	PEV	Ecologist Party "The Greens" Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"	Eco-socialism Green politics	Left-wing	Isabel Castro		2 / 230

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance		Original slogan	English translation	Refs
	PS	« Portugal em boas mãos »	"Portugal in good hands"
	PSD	« Vamos cumprir »	"We will deliver"
	CDS–PP	« Alternativa'99 »	"Alternative'99"
	CDU	« Para que não fique tudo na mesma »	"So that everything will not stay the same"
	BE	« É tempo de ser exigente »	"It's time to be demanding"

Candidates' debates

1999 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee
			PS Guterres	PSD Barroso	CDU Carvalhas	CDS–PP Portas	Refs
16 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	P	P	N	N
17 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	N	N	P	P
19 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	N	P	N	P
20 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	P	N	P	N
21 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	P	N	N	P
22 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	N	P	P	N
23 Sep	RTP1	Judite de Sousa	P	P	P	P
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date	Organisers	Polling firm/Link
			PS	PSD	CDU	CDS–PP	Notes
16 Sep	SIC	SIC	57	25	—	—	18% Neither

Opinion polling

See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed were represented in parliament (1995-1999). Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1995 and 1999 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

  Exit poll

Date Released	Polling Firm	PS					Others	Lead
10 Oct 1999	Leg. election	44.1 115	32.3 81	8.3 15	9.0 17	2.4 2	3.9 0	11.8
10 Oct 1999	RTP/Universidade Católica	46.0	30.3	7.5	8.5	2.5	5.2	15.7
10 Oct 1999	SIC/Seeds	46.3	31.5	8.0	9.8	2.8	1.6	14.8
10 Oct 1999	TVI/Intercampus	46.3	28.6	8.3	9.5	3.2	4.1	17.7
2 Oct 1999	Euroexpansão	50.0	32.0	8.0	6.0	2.0	2.0	18.0
1 Oct 1999	Seeds	47.0	32.0	7.0	8.0	1.0	5.0	15.0
1 Oct 1999	Metris	48.0	31.0	7.0	7.0	1.0	6.0	17.0
1 Oct 1999	Universidade Católica	47.2	30.0	7.2	7.9	2.8	4.9	17.2
30 Sep 1999	Marktest	46.2	30.7	4.2	10.6	2.8	5.5	15.5
30 Sep 1999	Aximage	49.0	33.0	6.0	7.0	1.0	4.0	16.0
29 Jul 1999	Universidade Católica	52.0	31.6	6.2	6.9	1.9	1.4	20.4
13 Jun 1999	EP elections	43.1	31.1	8.2	10.3	1.8	5.5	12.0
19 Mar 1999	Universidade Católica	55.3	32.6		9.3	2.0	0.8	22.7
Sep 1998	Universidade Católica	45.3	36.1	5.2	6.9	—	6.5	9.2
14 Dec 1997	Local elections	41.3	35.2	6.3	12.0	—	5.2	6.1
21 Mar 1997	Universidade Católica	40.0	33.0	6.5	8.0	—	12.5	7.0
Dec 1996	Universidade Católica	47.0	29.0	—	—	—	24.0	18.0
1 Oct 1995	Leg. election	43.8 112	34.1 88	9.1 15	8.6 15	4.4 0	Did not exist	9.7

National summary of votes and seats

Summary of the 10 October 1999 Assembly of the Republic elections results

Parties		Votes	%	±	MPs					MPs %/ votes %
					1995	1999	±	%	±
	Socialist	2,385,922	44.06	0.3	112	115	3	50.00	1.3	1.13
	Social Democratic	1,750,158	32.32	1.8	88	81	7	35.22	3.1	1.09
	Unitary Democratic Coalition	487,058	8.99	0.4	15	17	2	7.39	0.9	0.82
	People's	451,643	8.34	0.7	15	15	0	6.52	0.0	0.78
	Left Bloc	132,333	2.44	—	—	2	—	0.87	—	0.36
	Portuguese Workers' Communist	40,006	0.74	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Earth	19,938	0.37	0.3	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	People's Monarchist	16,522	0.31	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	National Solidarity	11,488	0.21	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Humanist	7,346	0.14	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	Workers Party of Socialist Unity	4,104	0.08	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Democratic Party of the Atlantic	438	0.01	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
Total valid		5,306,956	98.00	0.1	230	230	0	100.00	0.0	—
Blank ballots		56,964	1.05	0.3
Invalid ballots		51,230	0.95	0.1
Total		5,415,102	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		8,864,604	61.09	5.2
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Vote share PS   44.06% PSD   32.32% CDU   8.99% CDS-PP   8.34% BE   2.44% PCTP/MRPP   0.74% Others   1.12% Blank/Invalid   2.00%

Parliamentary seats PS   50.00% PSD   35.22% CDU   7.39% CDS-PP   6.52% BE   0.87%

Distribution by constituency

Results of the 1999 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency

Constituency	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	Total S
	PS		PSD		CDU		CDS–PP		BE
Azores	53.3	3	35.8	2	1.7	-	5.6	-	1.1	-	5
Aveiro	40.2	7	38.3	6	3.5	-	13.6	2	1.3	-	15
Beja	46.7	2	14.5	-	28.3	1	3.9	-	1.6	-	3
Braga	44.3	8	36.7	7	5.4	1	8.9	1	1.2	-	17
Bragança	39.7	2	45.1	2	2.6	-	8.7	-	0.8	-	4
Castelo Branco	51.6	3	32.0	2	5.3	-	6.3	-	1.2	-	5
Coimbra	47.2	6	35.2	4	6.1	-	6.0	-	2.0	-	10
Évora	45.7	2	18.7	1	24.6	1	5.1	-	1.5	-	4
Faro	48.4	5	29.5	3	8.3	-	7.3	-	2.3	-	8
Guarda	43.4	2	39.2	2	3.2	-	9.8	-	1.1	-	4
Leiria	36.8	4	42.6	5	5.3	-	9.9	1	1.7	-	10
Lisbon	42.7	23	27.3	14	12.3	6	8.5	4	4.9	2	49
Madeira	35.1	2	46.2	3	2.8	-	10.9	-	1.2	-	5
Portalegre	51.2	2	22.5	1	15.0	-	5.9	-	1.2	-	3
Porto	48.0	19	32.7	13	6.2	2	7.5	3	2.3	-	37
Santarém	45.5	5	30.2	3	10.1	1	8.1	1	2.0	-	10
Setúbal	43.7	8	18.0	3	24.8	5	5.6	1	3.5	-	17
Viana do Castelo	40.2	3	35.8	2	5.0	-	14.0	1	1.2	-	6
Vila Real	40.8	2	45.5	3	2.4	-	6.8	-	0.8	-	5
Viseu	38.1	4	44.3	4	2.2	-	10.5	1	1.2	-	9
Europe	55.4	2	24.7	-	5.3	-	3.2	-	0.6	-	2
Outside Europe	39.8	1	49.5	1	1.7	-	3.5	-	0.4	-	2
Total	44.1	115	32.3	81	9.0	17	8.3	15	2.4	2	230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

• 
  Most voted political force by district. (Madeira and Azores not shown)
• 
  Most voted political force by municipality.

Aftermath

Guterres second government was haunted by its failure in winning an absolute majority in the 1999 elections. The tie between the Government and the opposition created a series of problems to Guterres as all opposition parties, PSD, CDU, CDS–PP and BE, refused to negotiate with the Government. In the 2000 budget, CDS–PP decided to abstain and the budget passed:

2000 State Budget António Guterres (PS)
Ballot →		15 March 2000
Required majority →		Simple Y
	Yes • PS (115)	115 / 230
	No • PSD (81) • PCP (15) • PEV (2) • BE (2)	100 / 230
	Abstentions • CDS–PP (15)	15 / 230
	Absentees	0 / 230
Sources

However, after the 2000 budget, CDS–PP was no longer willing to support Guterres and, the solution found was a controversial one: With a sole CDS–PP MP, Daniel Campelo, Guterres secured the approval of two of his three annual State Budgets in exchange for the government financing a cheese factory in Campelo's hometown of Ponte de Lima, in Viana do Castelo district. The 2001 and 2002 budgets were approved with the abstention of this sole CDS–PP MP:

2001 State Budget António Guterres (PS)
Ballot →		29 November 2000
Required majority →		Simple Y
	Yes • PS (115)	115 / 230
	No • PSD (81) • PCP (15) • CDS–PP (14) • PEV (2) • BE (2)	114 / 230
	Abstentions • CDS–PP (1)	1 / 230
	Absentees	0 / 230
Sources

2002 State Budget António Guterres (PS)
Ballot →		30 November 2001
Required majority →		Simple Y
	Yes • PS (115)	115 / 230
	No • PSD (81) • PCP (15) • CDS–PP (14) • PEV (2) • BE (2)	114 / 230
	Abstentions • CDS–PP (1)	1 / 230
	Absentees	0 / 230
Sources

Fall of the government

However, despite the fragile majority to approve major legislation, Guterres also suffered with a lot of instability within his own cabinet, with two reshuffles in just four months during 2001. The Hintze Ribeiro Bridge collapse generated public anger against the government, which eroded even more Guterres' popularity. By 2001, the economy was also showing strong signs of slowdown, in a time when Portugal was about to enter into the Euro common currency and was suffering from the global impact of the September 11 attacks. All these problems culminated in the December 2001 local elections, in which the PS suffered a big defeat and saw major urban centers, mainly Lisbon and Porto, swing dramatically to the right-wing, and in response, Guterres announced his resignation as Prime Minister. President Jorge Sampaio dissolved Parliament and called an election for 17 March 2002.

External links

• Preliminary results of the 1999 election
• Comissão Nacional de Eleições Archived 2005-04-08 at the Wayback Machine
• Centro de Estudos do Pensamento Político

See also

• Politics of Portugal
• List of political parties in Portugal
• Elections in Portugal