2024 United States Senate election in Nebraska
 | |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
.jpg)
.jpg)
| Elections in Nebraska |
|---|
 |
 Government |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Nebraska will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Nebraska.[1] Since there will also be a special election for Nebraska’s other Senate seat, this marks the first time since 1954 where both of Nebraska's U.S. Senate seats were concurrently up for election. Primary elections took place on May 14, 2024.[2]
Incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer was first elected in 2012 to fill the seat of retiring Democrat Ben Nelson and was re-elected in 2018. Fischer will seek a third term, despite having previously pledged to retire.[3]
Dan Osborn, an industrial mechanic and union leader who led the strike at Kellogg's Omaha plant in 2021, is running as an independent. No Democrats filed to run for the seat, which created speculation that Democrats may support Osborn in the general election.[4] However, due to Osborn's rejection of all party support, state party chair Jane Kleeb stated that they would look for a write-in candidate.[5]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Deb Fischer, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present)[6]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Arron Kowalski, cattle farmer and perennial candidate[7]
Endorsements
[edit]- U.S. Executive branch officials
- Kellyanne Conway, former Senior Counselor to the President (2017–2020)[8]
- U.S. senators
- Pete Ricketts, U.S. senator from Nebraska (2023–present)[8]
- State executive officials
- Dave Heineman, former governor of Nebraska (2005–2015)[8]
- Kay Orr, former governor of Nebraska (1987–1991)[8]
- Jim Pillen, Governor of Nebraska (2023–present)[8]
- Organizations
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)[9]
- Maggie's List[10]
- National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund[11]
- Nebraska Farm Bureau[12]
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce[13]
- Labor unions
- Omaha Police Officers Association[14]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Deb Fischer (R) | $5,694,779 | $3,512,236 | $2,694,160 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[15] | |||
Results
[edit]
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Deb Fischer (incumbent) | 174,820 | 79.8% | |
| Republican | Arron Kowalski | 44,334 | 20.2% | |
| Total votes | 219,154 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Due to Dan Osborn's independent candidacy, the Nebraska Democratic Party had originally not intended to field a candidate, planning to endorse Osborn on May 18. However, on May 15, Osborn stated that he would not accept the help of any political party.[5] This led to a condemnation by state party chair Jane Kleeb, who said that Osborn had previously promised to work with them in exchange for them not running a candidate. Due to Osborn's announcement taking place the day after the state's primary, Kleeb announced that they would be looking for a write-in candidate to run under the party banner in November.[17]
Independent
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Dan Osborn, mechanic and former president of Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union Local 50G[18]
Endorsements
[edit]- Labor unions
- Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union Local 50G[19]
- Communications Workers of America[20]
- International Union of Elevator Constructors Local 28[19]
- Nebraska AFL-CIO[14]
- Omaha Police Officers Association[21]
- Office and Professional Employees International Union[19]
- United Auto Workers[22]
- 3 United Association locals[a][19]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Dan Osborn (I) | $812,114 | $427,220 | $384,894 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[15] | |||
Legal Marijuana NOW primary
[edit]The Legal Marijuana NOW primary attracted controversy, with one candidate, Kerry Eddy, admitting that she entered the race with the intention of winning the nomination and then dropping out. Eddy, who was a registered Democrat until March 2024, supports independent candidate Dan Osborn, and feared that the Legal Marijuana NOW Party's nominee could pull votes away from Osborn, who supports legalizing marijuana. Party chair Mark Elworth Jr. denounced Eddy's plan as "shenangians." The party instead supported Ken Peterson, who had been recruited to run by Elworth. Peterson alleged that supporters of Osborn had repeatedly urged him to drop out of the race. Osborn's campaign denied having any involvement in the Legal Marijuana NOW primary, though a pro-Osborn super PAC spent over $30,000 supporting Eddy's campaign.[23]
Withdrew after nomination
[edit]- Kerry Eddy, administrative coordinator (endorsed Osborn)[24]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Ken Peterson, compost facility attendant[7]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Kerry Eddy (LMN) | $16,384 | $922 | $15,462 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[15] | |||
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legal Marijuana NOW | Kerry Eddy | 743 | 70.8% | |
| Legal Marijuana NOW | Ken Peterson | 306 | 29.2% | |
| Total votes | 1,049 | 100.0% | ||
Aftermath
[edit]After Kerry Eddy won the May primary by a wide margin, she said she was re-evaluating whether or not to drop out of the race. Complicating Eddy's plan is that if she rejected the Legal Marijuana NOW Party's nomination, the party could simply name a replacement nominee. Mark Elworth Jr. has pledged to seek the party's nomination for Senate if Eddy drops out.[25] It was also suggested that Elworth could use his ballot line to nominate a Democrat.[5]
Eddy dropped out of the race on July 30 and endorsed Osborn. The party has until September 3 to name a replacement nominee.[24]
Libertarian Party
[edit]In March 2024, independent candidate Dan Osborn sought the support of the Nebraska Libertarian Party. However, he decided against this, instead running as an independent without any party's support.[5]
Declined
[edit]- Dan Osborn, mechanic and former president of Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union Local 50G (running as an independent)[5]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[27] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Safe R | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[29] | Safe R | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[30] | Safe R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[31] | Solid R | November 21, 2023 |
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Deb Fisher (R) | $6,263,797 | $3,778,940 | $2,996,473 |
| Dan Osborn (I) | $1,645,585 | $995,866 | $649,719 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[15] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Deb Fischer (R) |
Dan Osborn (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Wave Strategy Group/ Impact Research[A] |
July 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | April 24–25, 2024 | 737 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 37% | 33% | 30% |
| Change Research (D)[B] | November 13–16, 2023 | 1,048 (LV) | ± 3.1%[32] | 38% | 40% | 22% |
- Deb Fischer vs. Dan Osborn vs. Kerry Eddy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Deb Fischer (R) |
Dan Osborn (I) |
Kerry Eddy (LMN) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[C] | July 8–11, 2024 | 698 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 24% | 9% | 17% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Deb Fischer (incumbent) | ||||
| Independent | Dan Osborn | ||||
| Legal Marijuana NOW | TBA | ||||
| Total votes | |||||
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ "United States Senate elections, 2024". Ballotpedia. Retrieved July 12, 2022.
- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- ^ Walton, Don (May 14, 2021). "Fischer says she'll seek third Senate term in 2024". JournalStar.com. Retrieved May 14, 2021.
- ^ "Despite gun divide Dems leaning toward Osborn for Senate". central.newschannelnebraska.com.
- ^ a b c d e Sanderford, Aaron (May 15, 2024). "Dan Osborn spurns Democrats, other parties whose help he sought in Senate race". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
- ^ "Sen. Deb Fischer officially announces run for a third term". KRVN. June 28, 2023. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
- ^ a b "Nebraska Statewide Candidate List". Nebraska Secretary of State. January 5, 2024.
- ^ a b c d e World-Herald, Martha Stoddard Omaha (September 21, 2023). "Former Trump adviser Conway endorses Nebraska's Fischer". Star-Herald. Archived from the original on September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
- ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- ^ "The Messenger: A PAC Dedicated to Electing GOP Women Issues First Wave of 2024 Endorsements (Exclusive)". maggieslist.org. Retrieved June 25, 2023.
- ^ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Nebraska". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
- ^ "U.S. Sen. Fischer Earns Nebraska Farm Bureau Endorsement". KTIC 840 AM/98.3 FM/98.7 FM. February 18, 2024. Retrieved February 18, 2024.
- ^ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Sen. Deb Fischer for U.S. Senate in Nebraska". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. May 10, 2024.
- ^ a b "Dan Osborn says he has the signatures needed to reach Nebraska's fall ballot as a U.S. Senate candidate". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ a b c d "2024 Election United States Senate - Nebraska". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
- ^ a b "Official Results: Primary Election - May 14, 2024" (PDF). Secretary of State of Nebraska. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
- ^ "Nebraska Democratic Party Statement on Dan Osborn". May 15, 2024. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
- ^ Hammel, Paul (September 21, 2023). "Omaha steamfitter/union leader Dan Osborn to challenge incumbent U.S. Sen. Deb. Fischer". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
- ^ a b c d Early, Steve (March 13, 2024). "Dan Osborn Challenges Nebraska's Political Establishment with a Blue-Collar Agenda". Barn Raising Media. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Nebraska | CWA Endorsed Candidates | Communications Workers of America". cwa-union.org. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ "Nebraska steamfitter running for U.S. Senate against GOP incumbent is gaining traction".
- ^ "Playbook: Kamala Harris sizes up her competition - POLITICO". Retrieved August 18, 2024.
- ^ Wegley, Andrew (May 12, 2024). "In the Nebraska marijuana party's Senate primary, 'a daring plan' angers loyalists". Lincoln Journal Star. Retrieved May 14, 2024.
- ^ a b Sanderford, Aaron (July 30, 2024). "Kerry Eddy leaves Nebraska's U.S. Senate race, endorses Osborn over Fischer". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
- ^ Wegley, Andrew (May 15, 2024). "Nebraska marijuana party candidate tied to Dan Osborn wins primary, mulls future". Lincoln Journal Star. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ "Observers question poll indicating a close U.S. Senate race between Deb Fischer and Dan Osborn". Nebraska Public Media. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites