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Peaceful transition of power

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A peaceful transition or transfer of power is a concept important to democratic governments in which the leadership of a government peacefully hands over control of government to a newly-elected leadership. This may be after elections or during the transition from a different kind of political regime, such as the post-communist period after the fall of the Soviet Union.[1]

In scholarship examining democratization and emerging democracies, study of the successful transitions of power is used to understand the transition to constitutional democracy and the relative stability of that government.[2][3][4][5] A 2014 study concluded that 68 countries had never had a peaceful transition of power due to an election since 1788.[6][1]

Democratization studies[edit]

Duration: 23 minutes and 38 seconds.
President-elect Ronald Reagan is sworn in as president of the United States in a symbolic peaceful transfer of power in 1981.

In scholarship examining democratization and emerging democracies, study of the successful transitions of power is used to understand the transition to constitutional democracy and the relative stability of that government (democratic consolidation).[2][3][4][5]

A 2014 study by Adam Przeworski of 3,000 elections from 1788 to 2008, published in the journal Comparative Political Studies concluded that 68 countries (including Russia and China) had never had a peaceful transition of power between parties following an election, making it a "rare and a recent practice."[6][1] The same study found that once a country has an initial peaceful transfer of power (an "alternation"), it is very likely to keep doing so, making the peaceful transition of power a habit-forming activity.[6][1] In a stable institutionalized democracy, a peaceful transition is the expected outcome of an election.[6][1]

Peaceful transitions require a number of strong democratic institutions and norms to exist, such as the willingness of opposition parties to serve as a loyal opposition. Transitions by election put power holders in vulnerable positions, as not only do they risk potential changes in policy and practice and thus their means of power, but they also risk political retribution or retaliation.[7]

By region[edit]

The first peaceful transition of power in a country is often treated as an important stage in a government transition towards democracy such as seen in elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.[8] Successful transitions during tense political moments such as the Velvet Revolution in Armenia in 2018 are interpreted as signs of improved governance within the country, an important milestone in democratization and functioning civil society.[9] Alternately, the lack of peaceful transfers of power, such as in elections in Georgia from 1995 to 2008 in which the only transition between presidents was via the 2003 Rose Revolution, may harm the international reputation of the country as a "democracy".[10]

Africa[edit]

Since achieving independence from European colonial powers, Africa has had a mixed record in achieving peaceful transitions of power, with variations among nations.[11]

The first peaceful transition of power between civilians in Nigeria took place in 2007, although the outgoing and incoming presidents were of the same party and the preceding election was characterized by widespread irregularities.[12] In 2018, Liberia had its first electoral transfer of power since 1944.[13] The first peaceful transition of power in the Democratic Republic of the Congo took place in 2019, with outgoing president Joseph Kabila yielding power to opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi.[14] The first transition of power from one democratically elected leader to another in Niger took place in 2021, briefly overcoming the nation's history of coups d'etat[15] before another military coup occurred in 2023.[16]

Asia[edit]

Indonesia[edit]

Symbolism

The symbol of peaceful transition of power is when the outgoing president and/or vice president, after their respective successors recite the oath of office, switch chairs, so that the incumbent president is on the furthest left side of the altar at the People's Consultative Assembly main session's room, and the sitting vice president is immediately on the right side of the speaker and deputies speaker's desk. As of 2022, starting in 1978, the vice presidents always did this symbolic transfer when there was no vacancy in the office except in 2004, when Hamzah Haz did not attend the ceremony, and in 2009, when Jusuf Kalla was already seated on the furthest right side so no switch was needed. For presidents, as of 2022, this symbol of peaceful transition happened only twice, in 1999 during the inauguration of Abdurrahman Wahid, and in 2014 for the first inauguration of Joko Widodo.

Europe[edit]

Belarus[edit]

Main articles: National Anti-Crisis Management and United Transitional Cabinet

During the 2020 Belarusian protests that followed the disputed results of the Belarusian presidential election in August 2020, Belarusians created a Coordination Council and a shadow government, the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM), aiming for a peaceful transfer of power to a freely and fairly elected president.[17][18][19] NAM proposed a "constitutional" option for power transfer, in which the presumed presidential election winner, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, would become Prime Minister and the powers of the de facto president Alexander Lukashenko would be legally transferred to the Prime Minister's position, followed by elections for a new president organised by a newly created electoral commission; and a "legal sovereignty" option, in which Tsikhanouskaya would become President and organise presidential elections within 40–70 days.[20]

Georgia[edit]

The transfer of power resulting from the 2012 Georgian parliamentary election was considered an important case of peaceful transfer of power in the post-Soviet political development of Georgia, which, since the Soviet period, had earlier gone through changes such as the Rose Revolution in 2003.[10]

North America[edit]

United States[edit]

See also: Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election

A peaceful transition of power has historically been the norm in United States presidential transitions. The transition from John Adams to Thomas Jefferson in 1801 was considered an important milestone for the United States fledgling democracy. From then until 2020, the losing party in every presidential election "willingly and peacefully" relinquished power to the opposition.[21][22] The transition is institutionalized through symbolic acts like the presidential inaugurations.[23][24] Outgoing U.S. presidents traditionally attend the inaugurations of their successors, a symbol of the peaceful passage of power from one administration to the next.[25]

During the 2020 presidential elections, experts described a risk of democratic backsliding in the U.S.,[26][27] as President Donald Trump publicly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he lost his election bid.[28] In September 2020, after Trump's statements, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed a resolution committing to a peaceful transition of power and opposing any attempt "by the President or any person in power to overturn the will of the people of the United States"; many senators cited the peaceful transition of power's centrality to U.S. democracy.[29] Business leaders also made statements calling for a peaceful transfer.[30]

Trump was defeated in the 2020 election by Joe Biden in both the popular vote and the electoral vote, but refused to accept defeat. Trump falsely claimed election fraud, initiated a seven-part plan to overturn the election, and engaged in an aggressive and unprecedented[31] campaign to remain in power.[32][33] Trump's fellow Republicans had varied reactions to Trump's false election-fraud claims.[34][35][36][37] Trump stated on 15 October 2020 that he would accept a peaceful transfer (after a long period of ambiguous answers to the question) while still falsely alleging fraud and waging a legal battle to attempt to overturn the election results.[38]

On 6 January 2021, a pro-Trump mob, inflamed by false claims, attacked the Capitol in Washington, D.C., in a failed attempt to keep Trump in power. The mob disrupted the counting of the electoral votes by a joint session of Congress for several hours.[39][40][41] Five people died either shortly before, during, or following the attack.[42] Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell noted that "if this election were overturned by mere allegations from the losing side, our democracy would enter a death spiral."[43] On 7 January 2021, Trump condemned the riots and committed to the peaceful transition of power.[44] After he transferred power, he routinely repeated election lies and defended the riots.[45]

South America[edit]

In Venezuela, the Puntofijo Pact allowed a political agreement to respect the election results,[46] allowing for a peaceful transition of power after the ouster of dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez and during the country's democratic period.[47]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e "Peaceful transitions of power have been rare in modern states, but once the habit has been acquired it sticks". EUROPP. 26 November 2014. Archived from the original on 9 October 2020. Retrieved 25 September 2020.
  2. ^ Jump up to: a b Graham, Emmanuel (July 2017). "The Third Peaceful Transfer of Power and Democratic Consolidation in Ghana" (PDF). Africology: The Journal of Pan African Studies. 10 (5): 99–127. Archived (PDF) from the original on 11 July 2020. Retrieved 25 September 2020.}
  3. ^ Jump up to: a b Tamarkin, M. (1979). "From Kenyatta to Moi: The Anatomy of a Peaceful Transition of Power". Africa Today. 26 (3): 21–37. ISSN 0001-9887. JSTOR 4185874.
  4. ^ Jump up to: a b Mangu, Andre Mbata B. (1 June 2004). "DR Congo: the long road from war to peace and challenges for peaceful transition and national reconstruction". Africa Insight. 34 (2_3): 31–38. ISSN 0256-2804. Archived from the original on 9 October 2020. Retrieved 25 September 2020.
  5. ^ Jump up to: a b Ahmed, Jasem Mohamad (2012). "Democracy and the problem of peaceful transfer of power". Journal of Al-Frahedis Arts. 04 (10). Archived from the original on 9 October 2020. Retrieved 25 September 2020.
  6. ^ Jump up to: a b c d Przeworski, Adam (1 January 2015). "Acquiring the Habit of Changing Governments Through Elections". Comparative Political Studies. 48 (1): 101–129. doi:10.1177/0010414014543614. ISSN 0010-4140. S2CID 154441890. (subscription required)
  7. ^ Sutter, Daniel (1995). "Settling Old Scores: Potholes along the Transition from Authoritarian Rule". The Journal of Conflict Resolution. 39 (1): 110–128. doi:10.1177/0022002795039001005. ISSN 0022-0027. JSTOR 174324. S2CID 145445935.
  8. ^ "First peaceful transfer of power possible in the DRC: regional focus - East Africa". Africa Conflict Monitor. 2017 (Feb 2017): 35–39. 1 February 2017. ISSN 2311-6943. Archived from the original on 9 October 2020. Retrieved 25 September 2020.
  9. ^ Yayloyan, Diana (28 February 2019). "A Peaceful Transition of Power and Public's Expectations in Armenia". Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey. Archived from the original on 9 October 2020. Retrieved 25 September 2020 – via Think-Asia.
  10. ^ Jump up to: a b "Peaceful transfer of political power and its characteristics in Georgia. The Georgian parliamentary elections of 2012". Instrument Bibliometric National. Retrieved 25 September 2020.
  11. ^ O’Hanlon, Michael; Brigety, Reuben; Opalo, Ken (27 November 2018). "Power transitions in Africa". Brookings. Archived from the original on 11 September 2021. Retrieved 10 August 2023.
  12. ^ "A First in Nigeria: A Peaceful Succession of Power". The New York Times. Associated Press. 30 May 2007. Archived from the original on 11 September 2021. Retrieved 10 August 2023.
  13. ^ Tomas F. Husted, "Liberia: Background and U.S. Relations", Congressional Research Service (February 14, 2020), p. 5. Archived 11 September 2021 at the Wayback Machine.
  14. ^ Mwanamilongo, Saleh (24 January 2019). "New Congo president marks first peaceful transfer of power". Christian Science Monitor. Associated Press. ISSN 0882-7729. Archived from the original on 11 September 2021. Retrieved 10 August 2023.
  15. ^ Dalatou Mamane, "Niger inaugurates president in 1st democratic power transfer", Associated Press (April 2, 2021). Archived 11 September 2021 at the Wayback Machine.
  16. ^ "Niger's president 'held by guards' in apparent coup attempt". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 8 January 2024.
  17. ^ "Pavel Latushko Announces Establishment Of People's Anti-Crisis Administration". Belarus Feed. 29 October 2020. Archived from the original on 16 November 2020. Retrieved 16 November 2020.
  18. ^ Grekowicz, Nikita (15 November 2020). "Białoruś ponownie zawrzała po skatowaniu Ramana Bandarenki. Trwają protesty [relacja z Mińska]" [Belarus again in shock at the assault on Raman Bandarenka. Protests continue [report from Minsk]]. OKO.press (in Polish). Archived from the original on 16 November 2020. Retrieved 16 November 2020.
  19. ^ Sadouskaya–Komlach, Maryia (6 November 2020). "An Exiled Belarusian Opposition Faces A Credibility Test". Center for European Policy Analysis. Archived from the original on 16 November 2020. Retrieved 16 November 2020.
  20. ^ "National Anti-Crisis Management: Two power transition options have been developed". National Anti-crisis Management. 17 November 2020. Archived from the original on 17 November 2020. Retrieved 18 November 2020.
  21. ^ Pruitt, Sarah. "How the Peaceful Transfer of Power Began With John Adams". HISTORY. Archived from the original on 14 January 2021. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
  22. ^ "All 10 living former defense secretaries: Involving the military in election disputes would cross into dangerous territory". The Washington Post. 3 January 2021. Archived from the original on 6 January 2021. Retrieved 6 January 2021.
  23. ^ "Peaceful Transition of Power". National Archives. 18 November 2016. Archived from the original on 9 October 2020. Retrieved 25 September 2020.
  24. ^ Jacey Fortin (19 January 2021). "Trump Is Not the First President to Snub an Inauguration". New York Times. Archived from the original on 25 January 2021. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  25. ^ "A president hasn't refused to attend the inauguration of his successor in 152 years. Donald Trump will change that". USA TODAY. Archived from the original on 16 June 2023. Retrieved 10 August 2023.
  26. ^ "Is the U.S. at Risk of Mirroring Hungary's Democratic Backsliding?". www.worldpoliticsreview.com. 19 October 2020. Archived from the original on 14 January 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
  27. ^ Bauer, Michael W; Becker, Stefan (2 March 2020). "Democratic Backsliding, Populism, and Public Administration". Perspectives on Public Management and Governance. 3 (1): 19–31. doi:10.1093/ppmgov/gvz026. hdl:1814/69472. ISSN 2398-4910. Archived from the original on 14 January 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
  28. ^ Breuninger, Kevin (23 September 2020). "Trump won't commit to peaceful transfer of power if he loses the election". CNBC. Archived from the original on 9 October 2020. Retrieved 25 September 2020.
  29. ^ "Unanimous Senate commits to peaceful transfer of power after Trump refuses". ABC News. Archived from the original on 9 October 2020. Retrieved 25 September 2020.
  30. ^ "US business leaders call for peaceful transfer of power". www.ft.com. 7 November 2020. Archived from the original on 14 January 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
  31. ^ Multiple sources:
    • Kumar, Anita; Orr, Gabby (21 December 2020). "Inside Trump's pressure campaign to overturn the election". Politico. Archived from the original on 22 December 2020. Retrieved 11 September 2021. Trump's efforts to cling to power are unprecedented in American history. While political parties have fought over the results of presidential elections before, no incumbent president has ever made such expansive and individualized pleas to the officials who oversee certification of the election results.
    • Sanger, David E. (19 November 2020). "Trump's Attempts to Overturn the Election Are Unparalleled in U.S. History". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 20 November 2020. Retrieved 11 September 2021. President Trump's attempts to overturn the 2020 election are unprecedented in American history and an even more audacious use of brute political force to gain the White House than when Congress gave Rutherford B. Hayes the presidency during Reconstruction.
  32. ^ Multiple sources:
  33. ^ Multiple sources:
  34. ^ Parks, Miles (4 December 2020). "As Trump's Election Pressure Campaign Hits Republican Officials, Some Hit Back". NPR. Archived from the original on 14 January 2021. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
  35. ^ Bump, Philip (24 February 2021). "The uncomfortable reality: Even many Republican officials believe false election claims". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 17 April 2021. Retrieved 10 August 2023.
  36. ^ Kane, Paul; Clement, Scott (5 December 2020). "Just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden's win, Washington Post survey finds". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 5 December 2020. Retrieved 10 August 2023.
  37. ^ Crowley, Michael (6 November 2020). "Trump's False Election Fraud Claims Split Republicans". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 16 November 2020. Retrieved 10 August 2023.
  38. ^ Alison Main (16 October 2020). "Trump says he would accept peaceful transfer of power but casts doubt on election results". CNN. Archived from the original on 14 January 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
  39. ^ Dmitriy Khavin; Haley Willis; Evan Hill; Natalie Reneau; Drew Jordan; Cora Engelbrecht; Christiaan Triebert; Stella Cooper; Malachy Browne; David Botti (30 June 2021). "Day of Rage: An In-Depth Look at How a Mob Stormed the Capitol". New York Times. Archived from the original on 21 September 2021. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  40. ^ Colleen Long & Michael Balsamo (26 August 2021). "Capitol Police officers sue Trump, allies over insurrection". Associated Press. Archived from the original on 20 September 2021. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  41. ^ Luke Mogelson (15 January 2021). "Capitol Police officers sue Trump, allies over insurrection". The New Yorker. Archived from the original on 18 January 2021. Retrieved 11 September 2021. {{cite magazine}}: Unknown parameter |agency= ignored (help)
  42. ^ Levenson, Eric; Vera, Amir; Kallingal, Mallika (7 January 2021). "What we know about the 5 deaths in the pro-Trump mob that stormed the Capitol". CNN. Archived from the original on 14 January 2021. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
  43. ^ Axios (6 January 2021). "McConnell: "Our democracy would enter a death spiral" if Congress overturned election". Axios. Archived from the original on 14 January 2021. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
  44. ^ Martin, Jeffery (7 January 2021). "Full Text of Speech in Which Donald Trump Finally Concedes Election to Biden Without Naming Him". Newsweek. Archived from the original on 15 February 2021. Retrieved 11 June 2021.
  45. ^ Dale, Daniel (12 June 2021). "Trump is doing more lying about the election than talking about any other subject". CNN. Archived from the original on 16 June 2021.
  46. ^ Corrales, Javier (1 January 2001). "Strong Societies, Weak Parties: Regime Change in Cuba and Venezuela in the 1950s and Today". Latin American Politics and Society. 43 (2): 81–113. doi:10.2307/3176972. JSTOR 3176972.
  47. ^ Márquez, Laureano; Eduardo, Sanabria (2018). "¡Por fin, democracia!". Historieta de Venezuela: De Macuro a Maduro (1st ed.). Gráficas Pedrazas. p. 95. ISBN 978-1-7328777-1-9.
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