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2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary

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2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary
← 2016 March 3, 2020 2024 →
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114 delegates (91 pledged, 23 unpledged)
to the Democratic National Convention
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
 
Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders
Home state Delaware Vermont
Delegate count 37 30
Popular vote 473,861 376,990
Percentage 33.4% 26.6%
 
Candidate Elizabeth Warren Michael Bloomberg
Home state Massachusetts New York
Delegate count 24 0
Popular vote 303,864 166,200
Percentage 21.4% 11.7%

Municipality results

  Joe Biden000000000    
  Elizabeth Warren
  Bernie Sanders
  Tie
  N/A
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The 2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, as one of 15 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The Massachusetts primary was a semi-closed primary, with the state awarding 114 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 91 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.

While senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren had been thoroughly projected in all pre-election polls and forecasts to compete for victory till the last day, former vice president Joe Biden, who had barely polled over 15% in the state, made an enormous surge and won by a large margin with over 33% of the vote and 37 delegates, continuing his string of Super Tuesday victories.[1][2][3] One of the greatest upsets of the night, Biden almost certainly owed his success to the last minute endorsements from former Democratic opponents Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Beto O'Rourke after his South Carolina win.[4][5] Sanders finished behind in second place with nearly 27% and 30 delegates, while Warren's third-place finish in her home state with around 21% of the vote and 24 delegates was regarded the final crush to her candidacy.[6][7] Former mayor Michael Bloomberg did not manage to win any delegates.

Procedure

[edit]

Massachusetts was one of 14 states and one territory holding primaries on March 3, 2020, also known as "Super Tuesday".[8] Voting took place throughout the state from 7:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. in much of the state, with some precincts opening at 5:45 a.m. In the semi-closed primary, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level to be considered viable. The 91 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these, between 6 and 8 were allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts and another 12 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 20 at-large delegates.[9]).[10] The Super Tuesday primary as part of Stage I on the primary timetable received no bonus delegates, in order to disperse the primaries between more different date clusters and keep too many states from hoarding on the first shared date or on a March date in general.[11]

After congressional district caucuses on April 25, 2020, during which national convention district delegates were selected, the state party committee met on May 16, 2020, and voted on the 20 at-large and 12 pledged PLEO delegates for the Democratic National Convention. The delegation was joined by 23 unpledged PLEO delegates: 9 members of the Democratic National Committee, 11 members of Congress (both senators, notably Elizabeth Warren, and 9 representatives, including former candidate Seth Moulton), as well as former DNC chairs Steven Grossman, Debra DeLee, and Paul G. Kirk.[10]

Pledged national
convention delegates
Type Del. Type Del.
CD1 6 CD6 6
CD2 6 CD7 8
CD3 6 CD8 7
CD4 6 CD9 6
CD5 8
PLEO 12 At-large 20
Total pledged delegates 91

Candidates

[edit]

The Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth released the following list of candidates on the ballot:[12]

Running

Withdrawn

There were also a write-in option and a "no preference" option on the ballot.[12]

Polling

[edit]
Polling Aggregation
Source of poll aggregation Date
updated 		Dates
polled 		Bernie
Sanders 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Joe
Biden 		Michael
Bloomberg 		Tulsi
Gabbard 		Others/
Undecided[b]
270 to Win[13] March 3, 2020 Until March 3, 2020 22.4% 21.0% 15.0% 13.6% 1.8% 26.2%
FiveThirtyEight[14] March 3, 2020 until March 3, 2020 [c] 24.4% 21.0% 18.1% 14.5% 0.4% 21.6%
Average 23.4% 21.0% 16.6% 14.0% 1.1% 23.9%
Massachusetts primary results (March 3, 2020) 26.6% 21.4% 33.4% 11.7% 0.7% 6.1%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic Primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden 		Michael
Bloomberg 		Cory
Booker 		Pete
Buttigieg 		Kamala
Harris 		Amy
Klobuchar 		Beto
O'Rourke 		Deval
Patrick 		Bernie
Sanders 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Other Undecided
Mar 2, 2020 Klobuchar withdraws from the race; endorses Biden
Swayable[15] Mar 1–2, 2020 917 (LV) ± 4.0% 17% 18% – 11% – 5% – – 27% 15% 8%[e] –
Data for Progress[16] Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 301 (LV) ± 5.6% 26% 15% – 2% – 1% – – 26% 28% 2%[f] –
Mar 1, 2020 Buttigieg withdraws from the race; endorses Biden
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV[17] Feb 26–29, 2020 500 (LV) - 11.0% 13.0% – 12.4% – 5.0% – – 24.2% 22.2% 3.6%[g] 8.6%
WBUR/MassINC[18] Feb 23–26, 2020 426 (LV) ± 4.9% 9% 13% - 14% - 6% - - 25% 17% 9%[h] 8%
UMass Amherst[19] Feb 18–24, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5.9% 12% 9% - 14% - 7% - - 25% 23% 8%[i] 3%
Falchuk & DiNatale[20] Feb 16–18, 2020 453 (LV) – 13% 13% – 13% – 14% – – 17% 16% 5%[j] 8%
University of Massachusetts Lowell[21] Feb 12–19, 2020 450 (LV) ± 6.1% 14% 12% – 15% – 9% – – 21% 20% 6%[k] 4%
Feb 12, 2020 Patrick withdraws from the race
Falchuk & DiNatale[22] Jan 27–30, 2020 334 (LV) – 16% 8% – 6% – 7% – 3% 12% 23% 7%[l] –
Jan 13, 2020 Booker withdraws from the race
Dec 3, 2019 Harris withdraws from the race
Nov 24, 2019 Bloomberg announces his candidacy
Nov 14, 2019 Patrick announces his candidacy
Nov 1, 2019 O'Rourke withdraws from the race
WBUR[23] Oct 16–20, 2019 456 ± 4.6% 18% – 0% 7% 3% 1% 0% – 13% 33% 7%[m] 15%
Suffolk University[24] Sep 3–5, 2019 500 - 26% – 1% 5% 3% 0% 1% – 8% 24% 6%[n] 25%
Aug 23, 2019 Moulton withdraws from the race
Suffolk University[25] Jun 5–9, 2019 370 ± 5.1% 22% – 1% 8% 5% 0% 1% – 6% 10% 5%[o] 42%
Apr 25, 2019 Biden announces his candidacy
Apr 22, 2019 Moulton announces his candidacy
Apr 14, 2019 Buttigieg announces his candidacy
Emerson College[26] Apr 4–7, 2019 371 ± 5.0% 23% – 2% 11% 7% 2% 8% – 26% 14% 8%[p] –
Mar 14, 2019 O'Rourke announces his candidacy
Feb 19, 2019 Sanders announces his candidacy
Feb 10, 2019 Klobuchar announces her candidacy
Feb 9, 2019 Warren announces her candidacy
Feb 1, 2019 Booker announces his candidacy
Jan 21, 2019 Harris announces her candidacy
YouGov/UMass Amherst[27] Nov 7–14, 2018 655 – 19% – 3% – 6% 3% 10% 6% 14% 11% 1%[q] 27%
Hypothetical polling with only Biden, Sanders and Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden 		Bernie
Sanders 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Undecided
Evan Falchuk and Lou DiNatalie/Commonwealth Magazine[28] Oct 23–25, 2019 443 (LV) – 35% 13% 41% 11%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%
2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary[29]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[30]
Joe Biden 473,861 33.41 37
Bernie Sanders 376,990 26.58 30
Elizabeth Warren 303,864 21.43 24
Michael Bloomberg 166,200 11.72
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] 38,400 2.71
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] 17,297 1.22
Tulsi Gabbard 10,548 0.74
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 6,923 0.49
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] 6,762 0.48
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 2,708 0.19
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 1,257 0.09
John Delaney (withdrawn) 675 0.05
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 617 0.04
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 426 0.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 305 0.02
All Others 1,941 0.14
No Preference 5,345 0.38
Blank ballots 4,061 0.29
Total 1,418,180 100% 91

Results by county

[edit]
2020 Massachusetts Democratic primary

(results per county)[29]

County Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Michael Bloomberg Pete Buttigieg Amy Klobuchar Tulsi Gabbard Deval Patrick Tom Steyer Andrew Yang Michael Bennet John Delaney Marianne Williamson Cory Booker Julian Castro No Preference Blank ballots All Others Total votes cast
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Barnstable 21,423 38.44 12,106 21.72 9,399 16.86 8,011 14.37 2,177 3.91 1,056 1.89 388 0.70 213 0.38 426 0.76 86 0.15 45 0.08 18 0.03 31 0.06 13 0.02 2 0.00 186 0.33 103 0.18 51 0.09 55,734
Berkshire 10,978 38.35 8,196 28.63 5,549 19.38 2,634 9.20 461 1.61 227 0.79 115 0.40 210 0.73 28 0.10 26 0.09 15 0.05 11 0.04 13 0.05 6 0.02 11 0.04 80 0.28 44 0.15 22 0.08 28,626
Bristol 29,181 36.91 22,885 28.94 10,606 13.41 10,350 13.09 2,196 2.78 818 1.03 635 0.80 547 0.69 488 0.62 120 0.15 88 0.11 46 0.06 44 0.06 37 0.05 25 0.03 504 0.64 307 0.39 189 0.24 79,066
Dukes 1,962 32.63 1,632 27.15 1,287 21.41 718 11.94 192 3.19 99 1.65 36 0.60 19 0.32 30 0.50 8 0.13 5 0.08 0 0.00 3 0.05 2 0.03 1 0.02 7 0.12 6 0.10 5 0.08 6,012
Essex 52,900 33.97 41,877 26.89 28,220 18.12 20,661 13.27 4,761 3.06 2,111 1.36 1,482 0.95 852 0.55 890 0.57 264 0.17 167 0.11 79 0.05 67 0.04 49 0.03 48 0.03 586 0.38 445 0.29 268 0.17 155,727
Franklin 4,804 23.54 8,185 40.11 5,159 25.28 1,274 6.24 305 1.49 159 0.78 161 0.79 84 0.41 66 0.32 42 0.21 8 0.04 47 0.23 10 0.05 2 0.01 1 0.00 44 0.22 44 0.22 13 0.06 20,408
Hampden 23,009 36.60 19,260 30.63 8,599 13.68 7,860 12.50 1,170 1.86 599 0.95 484 0.77 537 0.85 141 0.22 118 0.19 165 0.26 62 0.10 30 0.05 28 0.04 44 0.07 319 0.51 257 0.41 189 0.30 62,871
Hampshire 10,722 24.35 15,318 34.78 12,986 29.49 3,052 6.93 721 1.64 426 0.97 231 0.52 141 0.32 57 0.13 58 0.13 17 0.04 9 0.02 16 0.04 8 0.02 6 0.01 146 0.33 86 0.20 41 0.09 44,041
Middlesex 123,553 30.54 99,704 24.64 109,318 27.02 45,727 11.30 11,302 2.79 5,328 1.32 2,733 0.68 1,374 0.34 1,517 0.37 895 0.22 255 0.06 136 0.03 124 0.03 102 0.03 49 0.01 1,269 0.31 827 0.20 404 0.10 404,617
Nantucket 1,055 40.56 624 23.99 384 14.76 373 14.34 66 2.54 35 1.35 15 0.58 9 0.35 17 0.65 4 0.15 2 0.08 4 0.15 1 0.04 0 0.00 0 0.00 9 0.35 2 0.08 1 0.04 2,601
Norfolk 61,914 37.02 36,074 21.57 34,126 20.40 23,101 13.81 4,791 2.86 2,317 1.39 1,352 0.81 658 0.39 862 0.52 345 0.21 102 0.06 55 0.03 68 0.04 42 0.03 11 0.01 694 0.41 467 0.28 275 0.16 167,254
Plymouth 37,270 38.64 23,254 24.11 14,214 14.74 13,390 13.88 3,352 3.48 1,400 1.45 933 0.97 566 0.59 789 0.82 164 0.17 60 0.06 53 0.05 59 0.06 33 0.03 19 0.02 468 0.49 306 0.32 127 0.13 96,457
Suffolk 47,608 29.79 48,636 30.43 41,885 26.21 13,745 8.60 2,513 1.57 965 0.60 819 0.51 974 0.61 377 0.24 312 0.20 213 0.13 103 0.06 70 0.04 59 0.04 52 0.03 464 0.29 818 0.51 196 0.12 159,809
Worcester 47,482 35.18 39,239 29.08 22,132 16.40 15,304 11.34 4,393 3.26 1,757 1.30 1,164 0.86 739 0.55 1,074 0.80 266 0.20 115 0.09 52 0.04 81 0.06 45 0.03 36 0.03 569 0.42 349 0.26 160 0.12 134,957
Total 473,861 33.41 376,990 26.58 303,864 21.43 166,200 11.72 38,400 2.71 17,297 1.22 10,548 0.74 6,923 0.49 6,762 0.48 2,708 0.19 1,257 0.09 675 0.05 617 0.04 426 0.03 305 0.02 5,345 0.38 4,061 0.29 1,941 0.14 1,418,180

Analysis

[edit]
Share of the vote by city and town

According to exit polls, Biden overwhelmingly won voters over 50, followed by Warren, while Sanders did the same with voters under 40. Voters between the ages of 40 and 49 years old were split between Biden (32%) and Sanders (31%). Biden also won white voters by 8 points over Sanders and African-American voters by 7 points, while Sanders won the Hispanic/Latino vote over Biden by 13 points. Sanders also won the LGBTQ+ voters over Warren and Biden by 12 and 23 points respectively.[31]

Biden carried 7 of the state's 9 congressional districts: the 1st, 3rd, 4th (where Biden got his widest margin of victory), 5th, 6th, 8th, and the 9th. Sanders carried the remaining districts.[32] The one comprised by the Boston-Metro Area showed the best performance for Sanders, and was the only district where Warren finished second.[33] This was a change from the pre-election prediction that Biden would do better in this district and Sanders worse.[34]

Notes

[edit]

Polling Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f Candidate withdrew after early voting started, but before the date of the election.
  2. ^ Calculated by subtracting polled candidates from 100%
  3. ^ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  4. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ Steyer with 4%; Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 3%
  6. ^ Gabbard with 2%
  7. ^ Steyer with 2.4%; Gabbard with 0.8%; refused with 0.4%
  8. ^ Gabbard with 1%; Steyer with 2%; Would not vote with 2%
  9. ^ Gabbard with 4%; Steyer with 3%
  10. ^ Gabbard with 3%; Steyer with 2%
  11. ^ Gabbard with 3%; Steyer with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  12. ^ Steyer with 4%; Yang with 3%; Booker with 0%
  13. ^ Gabbard with 2%; Delaney, Steyer and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%; others with 2%; would not vote with 2%
  14. ^ Gabbard with 2%; Bennet, Bullock and Yang with 1%; de Blasio, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Steyer and Williamson with 0%; refused with 1%
  15. ^ Gabbard, Moulton, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%; others with 1%
  16. ^ Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, and Yang with 1%; Gillibrand and Inslee with 0%; others with 5%
  17. ^ Moulton with 1%

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Biden defeats Warren in her home state of Massachusetts". Associated Press. March 3, 2020.
  2. ^ Conradis, Brandon (March 3, 2020). "Biden wins major upset in Massachusetts". TheHill.
  3. ^ Murray, Stephanie (March 4, 2020). "BIDEN wins Bay State SHOCKER — WARREN comes in THIRD at home — Mass. GOP rallies around TRUMP". POLITICO.
  4. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (February 28, 2020). "What Our Forecast Says In Massachusetts, Maine And Vermont". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved July 8, 2020.
  5. ^ Breuninger, Kevin (March 4, 2020). "Joe Biden wins Massachusetts primary, NBC News projects, a crushing blow to Elizabeth Warren". CNBC. Retrieved July 8, 2020.
  6. ^ "Massachusetts Democratic Delegation 2020". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved April 4, 2020.
  7. ^ "MA District Delegate Allocation Documents.pdf". Google Docs. Retrieved April 4, 2020.
  8. ^ Putnam, Josh. "The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
  9. ^ "2020 Democratic National Convention". Massachusetts Democratic Party. Archived from the original on July 24, 2019. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
  10. ^ a b "Massachusetts Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. May 5, 2019. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
  11. ^ "Democratic Timing Penalties and Bonuses". The Green Papers. November 24, 2021. Retrieved March 19, 2022.
  12. ^ a b Mass. Elections [@VotingInMass] (December 20, 2019). "These are your 2020 Presidential Primary ballots, Massachusetts" (Tweet). Retrieved December 20, 2019 – via Twitter.
  13. ^ 270 to Win
  14. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  15. ^ Swayable Archived 2020-03-03 at the Wayback Machine
  16. ^ Data for Progress
  17. ^ Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV
  18. ^ WBUR/MassINC
  19. ^ UMass Amherst
  20. ^ Falchuk & DiNatale
  21. ^ University of Massachusetts Lowell
  22. ^ Falchuk & DiNatale
  23. ^ WBUR
  24. ^ Suffolk University
  25. ^ Suffolk University
  26. ^ Emerson College Archived 2019-04-20 at the Wayback Machine
  27. ^ YouGov/UMass Amherst
  28. ^ Evan Falchuk and Lou DiNatalie/Commonwealth Magazine
  29. ^ a b "2020 President Democratic Primary". Mass.gov. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Archived from the original on April 9, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Massachusetts Democrat". Retrieved July 4, 2020.
  31. ^ "Exit and entrance polls from the 2020 primaries and caucuses". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 19, 2020.
  32. ^ "MA District Delegate Allocation Documents.pdf". Google Docs. Retrieved April 19, 2020.
  33. ^ "Massachusetts Democratic Delegation 2020". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved April 19, 2020.
  34. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (February 28, 2020). "What Our Forecast Says In Massachusetts, Maine And Vermont". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved April 19, 2020.
[edit]
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