Manifold (prediction market)
 | |
| Available in | English |
|---|---|
| Founded | 2021 |
| Founder(s) | Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett |
| URL | manifold |
| Current status | Active |
Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform.[1][2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'mana'.[3] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars.[4]
History
[edit]Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization.[5]
Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program.[6] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund,[7] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[8]
In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny.[6]
Market structure
[edit]Manifold is a reputation-based prediction market. The website has two forms of play money, 'Mana,' and 'Prize Points.' Mana is the main currency used on the site. Prize Points are won from certain markets vetted to be high-quality, with clear resolution criteria. When a Prize Point market resolves, if the user bet on the correct outcome, they are paid out in Prize Points rather than Mana. Prize Points can either be redeemed for charitable donations at the value of 1,000 PP = $1 (USD), or converted back into Mana. Neither type of play money is otherwise able to be converted into real-world money, although work on potentially making cash prizes available is underway.[9] [10] The lack of real-world currency use allows Manifold to avoid regulations around gambling.[6][11] Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap".[12]
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Why a "room-temperature superconductor" would be a huge deal". Vox. 7 August 2023. Archived from the original on 2023-08-31. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out.
- ^ Frick, Walter. "Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets". Nieman Lab. Archived from the original on 2023-06-03. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ^ Taylor, Michael. "Taylor: Can you see into the future? Online prediction markets can — and they let you bet on it". San Antonio Express-News. Retrieved 6 February 2024.
- ^ Henshall, Will (2024-02-14). "Meet the People Making Actual Bets on Love". TIME. Retrieved 2024-02-14.
- ^ Richard Hanania. "Mana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania". CSPI (Podcast). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ^ a b c Roose, Kevin (2023-10-08). "The Wager That Betting Can Change the World". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-10-08.
- ^ Ashworth, Louis (2022-12-19). "How to spend a million dollars, by Sam Bankman-Fried". Financial Times. Archived from the original on 2023-03-24. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ^ "SFF-2022-H1 S-Process Recommendations Announcement". Survival and Flourishing.Fund (SFF). Archived from the original on 2023-08-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
- ^ https://news.manifold.markets/p/exploring-cash-prizes-for-good-predictions
- ^ "About". Manifold. Archived from the original on 2023-04-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
- ^ "Manifold Markets - EA Forum". forum.effectivealtruism.org. Archived from the original on 2023-08-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
- ^ Frongillo, Rafael; Papireddygari, Maneesha; Waggoner, Bo (2023). "An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets". arXiv:2302.00196 [cs.GT].
External links
[edit]- Manifold website
- Manifold GitHub organization (source code)