2024 United States Senate election in Virginia
 | |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
.jpg)
| Elections in Virginia |
|---|
 |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia. Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine is seeking a third term. He is being challenged by Republican nonprofit founder Hung Cao. Primary elections took place on June 18, 2024.[1]
Background
[edit]Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections.[2][3][4]
Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points.[5][6]
This race is considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.[7]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Tim Kaine
- U.S representatives
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)[8]
- Individuals
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[9]
- Organizations
- Feminist Majority PAC[10]
- Giffords[8]
- Harvard College Democrats[11]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[12]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[13]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[14]
- J Street PAC[15]
- League of Conservation Voters[16]
- LGBT Democrats of Virginia[17]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare PAC[18]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[19]
- NextGen America PAC[9]
- Population Connection Action Fund[20]
- Sierra Club[21]
- Labor unions
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tim Kaine (D) | $14,583,509 | $8,488,125 | $8,615,046 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[23] | |||
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Hung Cao, nonprofit founder and nominee for Virginia's 10th congressional district in 2022[24]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Jonathan Emord, constitutional lawyer[25]
- Eddie Garcia, financial advisor and former congressional aide[26]
- Scott Parkinson, former Club for Growth vice president of government affairs and former chief of staff to Ron DeSantis[27]
- Chuck Smith, former chair of the Virginia Beach Republican Party, nominee for Virginia's 3rd congressional district in 2010, and candidate for attorney general in 2017 and 2021[28]
Endorsements
[edit]Hung Cao
- U.S. Presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[29]
- Individuals
- Oliver North, former President of the National Rifle Association of America (2018–2019),[30] nominee for this seat in 1994
Jonathan Emord
- U.S. representatives
- Ron Paul, former U.S. representative from TX-14 (1976–1977, 1979–1985, 1997–2013) (Libertarian)[31]
- Barry Goldwater Jr., former U.S. representative from CA-20 (1969–1983)[31]
Scott Parkinson
- U.S. senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)
- Jim DeMint, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2005–2013)[32]
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah (2011–present)[33]
- Tommy Tuberville, U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present)[34]
- U.S. representatives
- Jim Banks, U.S. representative from Indiana (2017–present)[32]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. representative from Arizona (2017–present)[32]
- Dan Bishop, U.S. representative from North Carolina (2019–present)[32]
- Lauren Boebert, U.S. representative from Colorado (2021–present)[34]
- Josh Brecheen, U.S. representative from Oklahoma (2023–present)[32]
- Eli Crane, U.S. representative from Arizona (2023–present)[32]
- Bob Good. U.S. representative from Virginia (2021–present)[35]
- Byron Donalds, U.S. representative from Florida (2021–present)[33]
- Mary Miller, U.S. representative from Illinois (2021–present)[33]
- Barry Moore, U.S. representative from Alabama (2021–present)[32]
- Anna Paulina Luna, U.S. representative from Florida (2023–present)[32]
- Scott Perry, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania (2013–present)[33]
- August Pfluger, U.S. representative from Texas (2021–present)[33]
- Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from Montana (2021–present)[32]
- Jason Smith, U.S. representative from Missouri (2013–present)[33]
- Individuals
- David Bossie, president of Citizens United[36]
- Organizations
Chuck Smith
- State legislators
- Amanda Chase, former state senator from the 11th district (2016–2024)[37]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Hung Cao (R) | $2,508,562 | $2,398,405 | $202,637 |
| Jonathan Emord (R) | $932,828[a] | $897,923 | $34,905 |
| Eddie Garcia (R) | $340,558 | $315,309 | $25,249 |
| Scott Parkinson (R) | $930,240 | $601,089 | $329,151 |
| Chuck Smith (R) | $556,762 | $536,262 | $20,499 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[23] | |||
Results
[edit]
Cao
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Garcia
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Hung Cao | 168,868 | 61.79% | |
| Republican | Scott Parkinson | 29,940 | 10.95% | |
| Republican | Eddie Garcia | 26,777 | 9.80% | |
| Republican | Chuck Smith | 24,108 | 8.82% | |
| Republican | Jonathan Emord | 23,614 | 8.64% | |
| Total votes | 273,307 | 100.00% | ||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[39] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[40] | Solid D | August 9, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[41] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[43] | Likely D | June 8, 2024 |
| CNalysis[44] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
Post-primary endorsements
[edit]Tim Kaine (D)
- Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tim Kaine (D) | $15,990,927 | $10,698,945 | $7,811,645 |
| Hung Cao (R) | $3,051,361 | $2,729,334 | $414,508 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[23]</ref> | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Hung Cao (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | 4%[c] | 8% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | July 14–15, 2024 | 301 (A) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 33% | 5%[d] | 20% |
| 265 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 34% | 4%[e] | 19% | ||
| July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (A) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 32% | 7%[f] | 15% | |
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 34% | 6%[g] | 13% | ||
| NYT/Siena College | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 34% | – | 14% |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 36% | – | 12% | ||
| Virginia Commonwealth University | June 24 – July 3, 2024 | 809 (A) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 38% | 14%[h] | – |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[A] |
April 26–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 1% | 16% |
Hypothetical polling
- Tim Kaine vs. Glenn Youngkin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Glenn Youngkin (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 47% | 42% | 3%[i] | 7% |
| University of Mary Washington | September 6–12, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 10%[j] | 10% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tim Kaine (incumbent) | ||||
| Republican | Hung Cao | ||||
| Total votes | 100.00% | ||||
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ $528,167 of this total was self-funded by Emord
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ "Another party" with 5%
- ^ "Another party" with 4%
- ^ "Another party" with 7%
- ^ "Another party" with 6%
- ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 8%; "Someone else" with 6%
- ^ None/Would not vote with 2%, other with 1%
- ^ None/Would not vote with 5%, other with 5%
- Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines
References
[edit]- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- ^ "Live election results: 2020 Virginia results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ Oliver, Ned (March 3, 2021). "Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here's what they've done". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "GOP sweeps statewide races with 2 down-ballot wins". AP NEWS. November 2, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "Virginia Elections Database » 2012 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "Virginia | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ a b Flynn, Meagan; Vozzella, Laura (January 20, 2023). "Va. Sen. Tim Kaine says he will seek another term". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
- ^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine for Reelection". Giffords. February 22, 2024. Retrieved February 26, 2024.
- ^ a b "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
- ^ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
- ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
- ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- ^ "Tim Kaine". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsed Candidates". LGBT+ Democrats of Virginia. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
- ^ NCPSSM. "National Seniors' Advocacy Group Endorses Sen. Tim Kaine for Re-Election". NCPSSM. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
- ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Virginia - COMPAC Endorsements". United Mine Workers of America. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
- ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ Minock, Nick (July 18, 2023). "Hung Cao launches website and files paperwork to run for 2024 US Senate race in Virginia". WJLA.com.
- ^ Churchill, Victoria (January 31, 2023). "Constitutional Litigator Jonathan Emord Announces U.S. Senate Run". The Republican Standard. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- ^ Rankin, Sarah (January 20, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia to seek reelection". AP News. Archived from the original on January 20, 2023. Retrieved April 21, 2023.
- ^ Rankin, Sarah (April 3, 2023). "Scott Parkinson runs for Tim Kaine's seat". The Virginia Pilot. Archived from the original on April 3, 2023.
- ^ Martz, Michael (August 5, 2023). "Meet the 8 Republicans (and counting) who want to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
- ^ Iannelli, Nick (May 27, 2024). "Republican US Senate candidate in Virginia 'honored' to receive Trump endorsement". WTOP. Retrieved May 27, 2024.
- ^ "A true patriot's endosement". PoliticalEmails. Archived from the original on February 23, 2024. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
- ^ a b "U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE JONATHAN EMORD RECEIVES THE ENDORSEMENTS OF RON PAUL AND BARRY GOLDWATER, JR". FOX 59. March 14, 2023. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Johnson, Julia (May 2023). "Tim Kaine GOP challenger holds fundraiser with Trump and DeSantis supporters alike". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- ^ a b c d e f Hazard, Charlotte. "Ex-DeSantis Hill staffer runs for U.S. Senate, says pandemic was his call for change". Just the News. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- ^ a b Shipley, Jonathan (May 31, 2023). "Former Baraboo resident eyes Virginia Senate". News Republic. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- ^ Martz, Michael (February 2, 2024). "Here's how much money Sen. Tim Kaine has raised in bid for new term". Richmond Times Dispatch. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
- ^ a b "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Scott Parkinson for U.S. Senate from Virginia". cupvf.com. April 24, 2023. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
- ^ Cantor, Dave (March 20, 2024). "These are the GOP candidates hoping to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". VPM. Retrieved May 5, 2024.
- ^ "June 18, 2024 Republican Party Primary Official Results". Virginia Department of Elections.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ "People For Endorses Seven New and Incumbent Senate Candidates in "Defend the Senate" Campaign". People for the American Way (Press release). July 29, 2024. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites