2024 Saxony state election

2024 Saxony state election

1 September 2024
All 120 seats in the Landtag of Saxony 61 seats needed for a majority
Leader Michael Kretschmer Jörg Urban Rico Gebhardt Party CDU AfD Left Last election 45 seats, 32.1% 38 seats, 27.5% 14 seats, 10.4%   Leader Wolfram Günther & Katja Meier Martin Dulig Party Greens SPD Last election 12 seats, 8.6% 10 seats, 7.7%
Incumbent Government Kretschmer II CDU–Greens–SPD

The next election to the Landtag of Saxony is scheduled for 1 September 2024.

Background

The 2019 election was marked by high gains for the AfD, which gained almost 28 percent of the vote and became the second strongest force. After losses, the CDU ended up with almost 32 percent as the strongest party ahead of the AfD. The Left and the SPD received 10.4 and 7.7 percent of the vote, respectively. The Greens increased and achieved their best result in a state election in Saxony with 8.6 percent, the FDP again missed entering parliament with 4.5 percent.

Parties and lists

Abbreviation	party	Result 2019	Direct candidates	Applicants on the state list	1st place on the national list
CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany	32.1%	60	78	Michael Kretschmer
AfD	Alternative for Germany	27.5%	60	75	Jörg Urban
left	The Left	10.4%	60	47	Susanne Schaper
Green	Alliance 90/The Greens	8.6%	60	30	Katja Meier
SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany	7.7%	60	54	Petra Köpping
FDP	Free Democratic Party	4.5%	60	48	Robert Malorny
Free Voters	Free Voters	3.4%	59	33	Matthias Berger
The party	Die PARTEI	1.6%	3	9	Sabine Kuechler
Pirates	Pirate Party Germany	0.3%	–	9	Stephanie Henkel
ÖDP	Ecological Democratic Party	0.3%	2	11	Jonas Bialon
BüSo	Civil Rights Movement Solidarity	0.1%	4	12	Michael Gründler
Animal protection here!	Action Party for Animal Welfare	–	–	3	Uwe Werner
Die Basis	Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany	–	3	11	David Murcek
Alliance C	Alliance C – Christians for Germany	–	–	7	Thomas Lamowski
Alliance Germany	Alliance Germany	–	3	16	Steffen Grosse
BSW	Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht	–	39	30	Sabine Zimmermann
Free Saxons	Free Saxons	–	35	30	Martin Kohlmann
V-Party³	V-Partei³ – Party for Change, Vegetarians and Vegans	–	–	4	Simone Schwarzbach
WU	Values Union	–	5	7	Heiko Petzold
	Other	–	13	–

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted.

Party polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	AfD	Linke	Grüne	SPD	FDP	BSW	Others	Lead
Infratest dimap	19–21 Aug 2024	1,566	31	30	4	6	7	–	14	8	1
Wahlkreisprognose	10–18 Aug 2024	1,000	34.5	30	4.5	4.5	5	1	14	6.5	4.5
Forsa	7–14 Aug 2024	1,041	33	30	3	6	6	–	13	9	3
INSA	5–12 Aug 2024	1,500	29	32	5	5	5	2	15	7	3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	5–8 Aug 2024	1,003	34	30	4	6	6	–	11	9	4
Infratest dimap	12–18 Jun 2024	1,157	29	30	3	7	7	–	15	9	1
INSA	10–17 Jun 2024	1,500	30	32	4	5	5	2	15	7	2
European Parliament election	9 Jun 2024	–	21.8	31.8	4.9	5.9	6.9	2.4	12.6	13.7	10
Civey	19 Mar – 2 Apr 2024	3,002	31	30	5	6	6	3	10	9	1
INSA	11–18 Mar 2024	1,000	30	34	5	5	6	2	11	7	4
Wahlkreisprognose	6–15 Mar 2024	1,200	31.5	31	3	6.5	6	–	13.5	8.5	0.5
Infratest dimap	18–23 Jan 2024	1,177	30	35	4	7	7	–	8	9	5
Forsa	7–10 Jan 2024	1,507	30	34	6	8	7	3	4	8	4
Wahlkreisprognose	2–9 Jan 2024	970	33.5	32	8.5	7	6	2.5	–	10	1.5
			30.5	28.5	6	5.5	5.5	2	15.5	6.5	2
Civey	18 Dec – 1 Jan 2024	3,004	33	37	8	7	3	1	–	11	4
Civey	19 Nov – 3 Dec 2023	3,002	33	33	7	7	7	2	–	11	Tie
Wahlkreisprognose	31 Oct – 7 Nov 2023	1,173	28.5	32.5	7.5	5.5	8.5	4	–	13.5	4
			27.5	31	4.5	5.5	6	–	14.5	11	3.5
INSA	11–22 Aug 2023	1,500	29	35	9	6	7	5	–	7	6
Wahlkreisprognose	8–12 Jun 2023	1,558	30	32.5	9	7	10	5	–	6.5	2.5
Wahlkreisprognose	16–28 May 2023	987	31	32	9.5	7	9.5	4	–	7	1
Wahlkreisprognose	18–20 Dec 2022	1,020	29.5	31	8	9.5	10.5	3.5	–	8	1.5
Wahlkreisprognose	17–19 Sep 2022	1,000	34	30	10	7	7	3	–	9	4
Wahlkreisprognose	9–15 Jun 2022	1,204	35	28	7.5	9.5	9	3	–	8	7
Wahlkreisprognose	9–16 May 2022	1,023	33	27	5.5	9.5	12	4	–	9	6
INSA	1–6 Apr 2022	1,000	25	28	9	9	12	7	–	10	3
Wahlkreisprognose	26 Mar – 1 Apr 2022	1,100	29	26.5	6	9	15	5	–	9.5	2.5
Infratest dimap	17–22 Feb 2022	1,178	27	24	10	8	13	7	–	11	3
Wahlkreisprognose	5–12 Oct 2021	1,002	22	25.5	7	9	19	10	–	7.5	3.5
2021 federal election	26 Sep 2021	–	17.2	24.6	9.3	8.6	19.3	11.0	–	9.9	5.3
INSA	6–13 Sep 2021	1,000	31	26	11	7	11	8	–	6	5
Infratest dimap	13–18 Aug 2021	1,179	35	21	10	7	11	6	–	10	14
INSA	2–9 Aug 2021	1,001	34	25	13	7	8	8	–	5	9
INSA	18–25 May 2021	1,000	24	26	11	13	6	12	–	8	2
Wahlkreisprognose	9–17 Dec 2020	–	40	30	9.5	8	7	1.5	–	4	10
INSA	1–15 Dec 2020	1,008	34	26	11	10	7	5	–	7	8
Wahlkreisprognose	25 Aug – 3 Sep 2020	–	38	27.5	10	10.5	5	3	–	6	10.5
INSA	29 Jun – 2 Jul 2020	1,020	36	26	11	10	7	4	–	6	10
Wahlkreisprognose	2–9 Jun 2020	–	40	26	8.5	9.5	6	3	–	7	14
Wahlkreisprognose	1–5 Apr 2020	–	36.5	29	9	7.5	7.5	4	–	6.5	7.5
2019 state election	1 Sep 2019	–	32.1	27.5	10.4	8.6	7.7	4.5	–	9.2	4.6

Minister-President polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size								None/ Unsure	Lead
			Kretschmer CDU	Urban AfD	Chrupalla AfD	Gebhardt Linke	Günther Grüne	Dulig SPD	Zimmermann BSW
Infratest dimap	19–21 Aug 2024	1,566	58	20	–	–	–	–	–	22	38
Forsa	7–14 Aug 2024	1,041	50	14	–	–	–	–	2	34	36
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	5–8 Aug 2024	1,003	64	14	–	–	–	–	–	22	50
Infratest dimap	12–18 Jun 2024	1,157	58	17	–	–	–	–	–	25	41
Wahlkreisprognose	2–9 Jan 2024	970	56	23	–	–	–	–	–	21	33
			56	–	29	–	–	–	–	15	27
Wahlkreisprognose	31 Oct – 7 Nov 2023	1,173	57	26	–	–	–	–	–	17	31
Wahlkreisprognose	8–12 Jun 2023	1,558	45	21	–	–	–	–	–	34	24
Wahlkreisprognose	18–20 Dec 2022	1,020	39	24	–	4	3	9	–	21	15