2024 United States presidential election in Utah
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Utah is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Utah voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Utah has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A Mountain West state, owing largely to its conservative Mormon majority, Utah has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B Johnson's 1964 landslide — granted that the GOP margin of victory has been lower than usual in the past two elections due to a considerable share of third-party votes statewide and growing Democratic trends in Salt Lake and Summit Counties — and is expected to be won comfortably by Republican nominee Donald Trump.[2][3]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is not running for reelection to a second term.[4] Former President Donald Trump is running for reelection to a second non-consecutive term after losing to Biden in 2020.[5] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered the required signatures to qualify for the ballot, as he announced in early January.[6] A June 2024 poll found that Donald Trump would get 49%, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would receive 20%, Joe Biden would get 20%, and uncertain/don't know 11% if it the election was held today.[3]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Utah Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden easily won the state, facing minor opposition from activist Marianne Williamson and Congressman Dean Phillips.
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 58,872 | 86.9% | 30 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 3,521 | 5.2% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 3,024 | 4.5% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 1,503 | 2.2% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 859 | 1.3% | |||
| Total: | 67,779 | 100% | 34 | 34 | |
Republican primary
[edit]The Utah Republican caucuses were held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump defeated former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley in one of his weakest performances of the greater Republican primaries. The state GOP returned to organizing a caucus after its use of the primary system in 2020, which significantly lowered turnout.
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
- 50–60%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald J. Trump | 48,350 | 56.35% | 40 | 40 | |
| Nikki Haley | 36,621 | 42.68% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 826 | 0.96% | |||
| Total: | 85,797 | 100.00% | 40 | 40 | |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[9] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[10] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[13] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[14] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[15] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[16] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[17] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
Candidate ballot access
[edit]As of August 2024, the following candidates have been designated as "Election Candidates":[18]
- Joe Biden / Kamala Harris, Democratic
- Claudia De la Cruz / Karina Garcia, unaffiliated[a]
- Lucifer "Justin Case" Everylove, unaffiliated
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Nicole Shanahan, unaffiliated
- Cornel West / Melina Abdullah, unaffiliated
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. lawsuit
[edit]On December 5, 2023, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. filed a lawsuit against lieutenant governor Deidre Henderson and state elections director Ryan Cowley, arguing that the state's requirement for unaffiliated candidates to attain 1,000 verified signatures before the January 8 deadline is unconstitutional and that it forces Kennedy's campaign to hire professional petition circulators. In the 2020 election, the filing deadline was August 17, and was moved up in a bill passed by the Utah State Legislature in February 2022. Campaign lawyer Paul Rossi argued that the deadline was made "to block any third-party candidates from appearing on Utah's ballot," showing "an absolute contempt for the Constitution."[19] A court filing was made by state attorney general Sean Reyes on December 7, stating that Henderson and Cowley have agreed to not enforce the deadline until March 5, 2024, per request of senior judge David Nuffer.[20] Kennedy later qualified to appear on the Utah ballot on December 28, 2023, marking the first state to award him official ballot access.[21]
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics[22] | June 4–7, 2024 | 857 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[23] | April 8–16, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics[24] | January 16–21, 2024 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 33% | 24% |
| Emerson College[25] | October 25–28, 2022 | 825 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 34% | 19% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics[22] | June 4–7, 2024 | 857 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 20% | 21% | 11% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[23] | April 8–16, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 23% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 15% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Utah
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ De la Cruz and Garcia were nominated by the Party for Socialism and Liberation but are listed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
- ^ a b Benson, Samuel (June 13, 2024). "Poll: Trump leads big among Utah voters; Biden, Kennedy tied". Deseret News. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
- ^ Schrader, Adam; Moran, Mark (July 21, 2024). "After dropping out of race, Biden endorses Kamala Harris for president". CNBC.
- ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
- ^ "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Files as presidential candidate in Utah, the first state to grant him access". Associated Press News. January 3, 2024.
- ^ "Utah Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "Utah Republican Caucus Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Candidate Filings". Utah Voter Information. Lieutenant Governor of Utah. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
- ^ Schott, Bryan (December 5, 2023). "RFK Jr. sues Utah over ballot access requirements". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
- ^ Pellish, Aaron (December 7, 2023). "Utah officials temporarily delay ballot access filing deadline after RFK Jr. lawsuit". CNN. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
- ^ "RFK Jr. Qualifies for His First 2024 Ballot in Utah". Yahoo News. December 29, 2023. Retrieved December 30, 2023.
- ^ a b "Poll: Trump leads big among Utah voters". Deseret News. June 14, 2024.
- ^ a b Insights, Noble Predictive (May 2, 2024). "Utah 2024 Presidential Election: Trump's Commanding Lead". Noble Predictive.
- ^ "A new poll shows how Trump and Biden fare against a third-party candidate in Utah". Deseret News. February 12, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 31, 2022). "Utah 2022: Senator Mike Lee Holds 10-Point Lead Over Evan McMullin". Emerson Polling.
