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2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii

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Not to be confused with 2012 Hawaii State Senate election.
For related races, see 2012 United States Senate elections.

2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii
← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
Turnout44.2% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Mazie Hirono Linda Lingle
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 269,489 160,994
Percentage 62.60% 37.40%
County results
Hirono:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Daniel Akaka
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mazie Hirono
Democratic

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The 2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Daniel Akaka decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth full term. Democrat Mazie Hirono defeated Republican Linda Lingle in a rematch of Hawaii's 2002 gubernatorial election. This was the first open Senate seat in the state of Hawaii since 1976.

Background

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U.S. Representative Daniel Akaka was appointed by Governor John Waihee to the U.S. Senate to serve temporarily after the death of U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga, and sworn into office on May 16, 1990. On November 6 of the same year, he was elected to complete the remaining four years of Matsunaga's unexpired term. He was re-elected in 1994 for a first full six-year term and again in 2000 and 2006. Despite originally saying he would seek re-election in 2012,[2] on March 2, 2011, Akaka announced that he would not run for re-election.[3]

Democratic primary

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The primary election was held on August 11.[4] After being locked in a tight race with Ed Case, her predecessor in Congress, incumbent Congresswoman Mazie Hirono pulled away in the final vote, handily defeating Case.

Candidates

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Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Campaign

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In December 2011, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairwoman and U.S. Senator Patty Murray for Washington endorsed Hirono.[12] U.S. Senator and President Pro Tempore Daniel Inouye for Hawaii also endorsed her. Case criticized "D.C. insiders." He also argued that he is a fiscal moderate, while Hirono was rated the 6th most liberal member of the U.S. House.[13][14] The Daily Kos blog described Ed Case a "Democratic villain."[15]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Case 		Mazie
Hirono 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[16] October 13–16, 2011 368 ±5.1% 40% 45% 15%
Civil Beat Poll[17] January 18–19, 2012 1,358 ±2.7% 41% 39% 20%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[18] January 26 – February 5, 2012 599 ±4.0% 36% 56% 8%
Civil Beat Poll[19] June 5–7, 2012 731 ±3.6% 46% 46% 8%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[18] July 5–9, 2012 599 ±4.0% 40% 43% 9%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[20] July 12–21, 2012 606 ±4.0% 37% 55% 8%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[21] July 31 – August 2, 2012 1,227 ±2.8% 47% 46% 9%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Hirono—60–70%
  Hirono—50–60%
Democratic primary results[22]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mazie Hirono 134,745 57%
Democratic Ed Case 95,553 40%
Blank Votes 3,331 1%
Democratic Arturo Reyes 1,720 1%
Democratic Michael Gillespie 1,104 1%
Democratic Antonio Gimbernat 517 0.2%
Over Votes 110 0%
Total votes 237,080 100%

Republican primary

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The primary election was held on August 11.

Candidates

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Declined

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Carroll 		Linda
Lingle 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[30] October 13–16, 2011 293 ±5.7% 9% 85% 6%

Results

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Republican primary results[22]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Linda Lingle 44,252 90%
Republican John Carroll 2,900 6%
Blank Votes 749 2%
Republican John Roco 545 1%
Republican Charles Collins 366 1%
Republican Eddie Pirkowski 232 0.5%
Over Votes 25 0.1%
Total votes 49,069 100%

General election

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Candidates

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  • Mazie Hirono (Democratic), U.S. Representative
  • Linda Lingle (Republican), former governor
  • Heath Beasley (independent)[31]

Debates

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Fundraising

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Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Mazie Hirono (D) $5,518,572 $5,657,753 $77,323 $241,951
Linda Lingle (R) $5,865,323 $5,839,282 $26,042 $194,534
Source: Federal Election Commission[36][37]

Top contributors

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Mazie Hirono Contribution Linda Lingle Contribution
EMILY's List $215,640 Goldman Sachs $39,900
University of Hawaii $29,900 Elliott Management Corporation $39,500
Kobayashi, Sugita & Goda $24,618 Humanscale Corporation $34,000
Alexander & Baldwin $23,100 Bank of America $21,240
RM Towill Corp $23,000 Richie's Specialty Pharmacy $20,000
Weitz & Luxenberg $22,400 Marriott International $19,500
Council for a Livable World $20,914 Murray Energy $19,205
Nan, Inc. $20,000 State of Hawaii $18,350
Thornton & Naumes $20,000 Devon Energy $15,500
BNP Paribas $17,250 Crown Associates Realty $15,000
Source: OpenSecrets[38]

Top industries

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Mazie Hirono Contribution Linda Lingle Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $524,619 Retired $640,433
Women's Issues $336,772 Financial Institutions $368,837
Retired $194,307 Leadership PACs $291,500
Leadership PACs $186,500 Real Estate $249,216
Real Estate $123,598 Pro-Israel $185,500
Transportation Unions $110,400 Health Professionals $154,550
Lobbyists $109,344 Petroleum Industry $137,950
Public Sector Unions $108,000 Misc Finance $137,500
Democratic/Liberal $85,788 Lawyers/Law Firms $135,086
Shipping Industry $85,385 Republican/Conservative $101,664
Source: OpenSecrets[39]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[40] Lean D November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] Likely D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[42] Likely D November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[43] Likely D November 5, 2012

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mazie
Hirono (D) 		Linda
Lingle (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 52% 40% 9%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[45] May 4–10, 2011 614 ±4.0% 57% 35% 8%
Public Policy Polling[16] October 13–16, 2011 568 ±4.1% 48% 42% 10%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[46] January 18–19, 2012 1,358 ±2.7% 46% 39% 16%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[47] January 26 – February 5, 2012 771 ±3.5% 57% 37% 5%
Public Policy Polling[48] May 16–17, 2012 600 ±4.0% 50% 41% 9%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[49] June 5–7, 2012 1,105 ±2.9% 49% 44% 5%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[20] July 12–21, 2012 756 ±3.6% 58% 39% 4%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[50] September 26–28, 2012 1,684 ±2.4% 55% 39% 6%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[51] October 15–22, 2012 786 ±3.5% 57% 35% 8%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[52] October 24–26, 2012 1,218 ±2.8% 55% 40% 5%
Hypothetical polling

Democratic primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Case 		Colleen
Hanabusa 		Mufi
Hannemann 		Mazie
Hirono 		Brian
Schatz 		Don't Know/
Refused
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[53] May 4–10, 2011 403 ±4.9% 26% 15% 17% 25% 6% 11%

with Duke Aiona

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Case (D) 		Duke
Aiona (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 50% 35% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mazie
Hirono (D) 		Duke
Aiona (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 49% 42% 10%

with Colleen Hanabusa

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Colleen
Hanabusa (D) 		Duke
Aiona (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 48% 43% 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Colleen
Hanabusa (D) 		Charles
Djou (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 50% 40% 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Colleen
Hanabusa (D) 		Linda
Lingle (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 51% 40% 9%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[45] May 4–10, 2011 614 ±4.0% 54% 39% 7%

with Charles Djou

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Case (D) 		Charles
Djou (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 53% 35% 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mazie
Hirono (D) 		Charles
Djou (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 51% 40% 9%

With Mufi Hannemann

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mufi
Hannemann (D) 		Charles
Djou (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 46% 40% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mufi
Hannemann (D) 		Duke
Aiona (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 42% 42% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mufi
Hannemann (D) 		Linda
Lingle (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 47% 40% 14%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[45] May 4–10, 2011 614 ±4.0% 51% 36% 13%

with Brian Schatz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Brian
Schatz (D) 		Linda
Lingle (R) 		Undecided/Other
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[45] May 4–10, 2011 614 ±4.0% 47% 43% 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Case (D) 		John
Carroll (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[16] October 13–16, 2011 568 ±4.1% 60% 21% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Case (D) 		Linda
Lingle (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 52% 35% 12%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[45] May 4–10, 2011 614 ±4.0% 54% 36% 10%
Public Policy Polling[16] October 13–16, 2011 568 ±4.1% 43% 45% 12%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[46] January 18–19, 2012 1,358 ±2.7% 46% 33% 20%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[47] January 26 – February 5, 2012 771 ±3.5% 56% 36% 8%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[49] June 5–7, 2012 1,105 ±2.9% 52% 36% 12%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[20] July 12–21, 2012 756 ±3.6% 56% 38% 6%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mazie
Hirono (D) 		John
Carroll (R) 		Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[16] October 13–16, 2011 568 ±4.1% 56% 29% 15%

Endorsements

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Mazie Hirono (D)

U.S. Representatives

Results

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United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2012[55]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mazie Hirono 269,489 62.60% +1.25%
Republican Linda Lingle 160,994 37.40% +0.62%
Total votes 430,483 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Results by congressional district

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Hirono won both congressional districts.[56]

District Hirono Lingle Representative
1st 59.94% 40.06% Colleen Hanabusa
2nd 65.24% 34.76% Tulsi Gabbard

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2013.
  2. ^ Mizutani, Ron (April 26, 2010). "Sen. Akaka: "God willing, I Plan to Run Again in 2012"". KHON2. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved March 3, 2011.
  3. ^ a b DePledge, Derrick (March 2, 2011). "AKAKA WILL NOT SEEK RE-ELECTION IN 2012". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Archived from the original on March 4, 2011. Retrieved March 3, 2011.
  4. ^ "Maui Weekly". Archived from the original on June 29, 2012. Retrieved June 24, 2012.
  5. ^ Starkey, Melanie (April 10, 2011). "Ed Case to Mount Hawaii Senate Campaign". Roll Call. Retrieved June 1, 2011.
  6. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (May 19, 2011). "Mazie Hirono to Run for Open Senate Seat in Hawaii". Roll Call. Retrieved June 1, 2011.
  7. ^ Daranciang, Nelson (May 31, 2011). "Duckworth not considering run for Hawaii posts". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Archived from the original on November 4, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2011.
  8. ^ Catanese, David (March 3, 2011). "Hanabusa passes on Senate Bid". Politico. Retrieved August 24, 2011.
  9. ^ Blair, Chad (August 24, 2011). "No Senate Run for Hanabusa". Honolulu Civil Beat. Peer News LLC. Retrieved August 26, 2011.
  10. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (August 24, 2011). "Hanabusa Will Seek Re-Election, Not Bid for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved August 26, 2011.
  11. ^ Joseph, Cameron (August 30, 2011). "Former Honolulu Mayor Hannemann to run for House". Ballot Box. Retrieved August 30, 2011.
  12. ^ Poll: Hirono in solid shape in Senate primary - The Hill's Ballot Box
  13. ^ Former Congressman Ed Case: If Hirono Wins U.S. Senate Democratic Primary, Former GOP Gov. Lingle Will Beat Her | Hawaii Reporter
  14. ^ Unrelenting Ed Case Says Mazie Hirono Is D.C. Insider : Roll Call Politics
  15. ^ "Honolulu Civil Beat – Capitol Watch – Hawaii Politics and Government – Daily Kos Hates Ed Case". Archived from the original on April 26, 2012. Retrieved December 23, 2011.
  16. ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
  17. ^ Civil Beat Poll
  18. ^ a b Honolulu Star-Advertiser
  19. ^ Civil Beat Poll
  20. ^ a b c Honolulu Star-Advertiser
  21. ^ Civil Beat/Merriman River
  22. ^ a b "PRIMARY ELECTION 2012 – State of Hawaii – Statewide" (PDF). State Of Hawaii Office of Elections. Retrieved September 29, 2012.
  23. ^ "Ex-HI GOP legislator John Carroll to run for U.S. Senate". The Hawaii Independent. September 21, 2011. Retrieved September 27, 2011.
  24. ^ Bracken, Sherry (May 29, 2012). "Senate Candidate Lingle Continues to Campaign on Big Island". Archived from the original on January 21, 2013. Retrieved July 25, 2012. In the August 11 Republican primary, she will face Charles Collins of Pahoa.
  25. ^ DePledge, Derrick (October 11, 2011). "Lingle joins U.S. Senate race". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Retrieved October 11, 2011.
  26. ^ "Office of Elections" (PDF).
  27. ^ "Aiona says he will not run for Congress in 2012". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. August 16, 2011. Archived from the original on September 25, 2011. Retrieved September 7, 2011.
  28. ^ "Djou announces run for Congress, will deploy to Afghanistan". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. August 17, 2011. Retrieved August 26, 2011.
  29. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (August 17, 2011). "Ex-Rep. Djou Announces Bid for House". Roll Call. Retrieved August 26, 2011.
  30. ^ Public Policy Polling
  31. ^ "Hawaii – County Vote Results". Associated Press. August 12, 2012. Retrieved October 13, 2012.
  32. ^ "Hirono, Lingle square off in first Senate debate". New Vision Television – KHON2. September 6, 2012. Retrieved October 8, 2012.
  33. ^ Sakahara, Tim (September 6, 2012). "Lingle and Hirono battle in feisty debate". Retrieved October 8, 2012.
  34. ^ "Lingle, Hirono finalize debate schedule". The Maui News. August 23, 2012. Retrieved October 8, 2012.
  35. ^ "Lingle, Hirono finalize US Senate debate schedule". Real Clear Politics. Associated Press. August 22, 2012. Retrieved October 8, 2012.
  36. ^ Federal Election Commission. "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Hawaii HIRONO, MAZIE K". fec.gov.
  37. ^ Federal Election Commission. "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Hawaii LINGLE, LINDA". fec.gov.
  38. ^ "Top Contributors 2012 Race: Hawaii Senate". OpenSecrets.
  39. ^ "Top Industries 2012 Race: Hawaii Senate". OpenSecrets.
  40. ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  41. ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  42. ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  43. ^ "2012 Elections Map – Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  44. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Public Policy Polling
  45. ^ a b c d e Honolulu Star-Advertiser
  46. ^ a b Civil Beat/Merriman River
  47. ^ a b Honolulu Star-Advertiser
  48. ^ Public Policy Polling
  49. ^ a b Civil Beat/Merriman River
  50. ^ Civil Beat/Merriman River
  51. ^ Honolulu Star-Advertiser
  52. ^ Civil Beat/Merriman River
  53. ^ Honolulu Star-Advertiser
  54. ^ "Don Young's unusual endorsement of Hawaii Democrat Mazie Hirono". Anchorage Daily News. July 25, 2012. Retrieved April 17, 2022.
  55. ^ "2012 General Election Summary Report" (PDF). State of Hawaii. November 20, 2012. Retrieved March 12, 2022.
  56. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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Campaign sites (Archived)

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