2012 United States Senate election in New Jersey

2012 United States Senate election in New Jersey
	Menendez: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Kyrillos: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90%
U.S. senator before election; Bob Menendez; Democratic	Elected U.S. Senator ; Bob Menendez; Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in New Jersey took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent senator Bob Menendez became the first Hispanic-American U.S. senator to represent New Jersey in January 2006 when former U.S. senator Jon Corzine appointed him to the seat after having resigned to become governor of New Jersey, following his election in November 2005.^[1] In November 2006, after a tough and painful election, Menendez defeated Republican state senator Thomas Kean, Jr. with 53.3% of the vote.

Menendez won re-election to a second full term, becoming the first Democratic Senate candidate to carry Somerset County since Bill Bradley in 1984. This is the only time since 1976 that a candidate for this seat received over 55% of the vote. This election marked the first time that someone won this seat by double digits since 1976 as well. Menendez outperformed President Obama by winning 0.62% more than Obama won in the concurrent presidential election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Bob Menendez, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Menendez	Someone else	Unsure
Fairleigh Dickinson University	March 5–11, 2012	404	±5.0%	30%	37%	33%

Results

Democratic primary results^[3]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Bob Menendez (incumbent)	235,321	100
Total votes			235,321	100

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

David Brown, inventor^[4]
Joe Kyrillos, State Senator^[5]
Bader Qarmout, businessman and adjunct professor at the County College of Morris^[6]
Joseph Rudy Rullo, businessman^[7]

Withdrew

Ian Linker, attorney^[8]
Anna Little, former mayor of Highlands and candidate for NJ-06 in 2010^[9]

Declined

Diane Allen, state senator, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2002 and former news broadcaster^[10]
Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey and former U.S. Attorney^[11]^[12]
John Crowley, biotechnology executive^[13]
Michael Doherty, state senator^[14]
Tim Smith, financial services firm executive and member of the Roxbury Township Council^[15]
Jay Webber, State Assemblyman and former New Jersey Republican State Committee chairman^[16]^[17]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Michael Doherty	Kim Guadagno	Woody Johnson	Tom Kean Jr.	Joseph Kyrillos	Anna Little	Tim Smith	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 15–18, 2011	300	±5.7%	7%	10%	9%	36%	3%	4%	2%	—	30%

Results

Republican primary results^[3]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Joe Kyrillos	161,146	77.1
	Republican	David Brown	18,671	8.9
	Republican	Joseph Rullo	16,690	8.0
	Republican	Bader Qarmout	12,637	6.0
Total votes			209,144	100%

General election

Candidates

Bob Menendez (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator
Joe Kyrillos (Republican), state senator
Inder "Andy" Soni (America First)
Ken Wolski (Green), medical marijuana activist and former nurse^[18]
Gwen Diakos (Jersey Strong Independents), civilian defense contractor^[4]^[19]
Kenneth R. Kaplan (Libertarian), commercial real estate broker^[20]
Eugene Martin LaVergne (independent)
Daryl Mikell Brooks (Reform Nation), activist
Robert "Turk" Turkavage (Responsibility Fairness Integrity), former FBI agent
Greg Pason (Socialist), National Secretary of the Socialist Party USA and perennial candidate^[21]
J. David Dranikoff (Totally Independent Candidate), businessman

Debates

Three debates were scheduled. The first debate took place on October 4, 2012, at Montclair State University. Menendez and Kyrillos participated. The second took place on October 10 at NJ 101.5 studios, Trenton NJ^[22] The third was to take place on October 17 at Mercer County Community College^[23]

External links

Complete video of debate, October 4, 2012 - C-SPAN
Complete video of debate, October 13, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Bob Menendez (D)	$10,243,864	$2,325,178	$10,345,365	$0
Joseph Kyrillos (R)	$3,106,536	$1,132,232	$1,974,302	$50,236
Kenneth R. Kaplan (L)	$800	$0	$800	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission^[24]^[25]^[26]

Top contributors

^[27]

Bob Menendez	Contribution	Joseph Kyrillos	Contribution
Lowenstein Sandler	$116,160	McElroy, Deutsch, Mulvaney & Carpenter, LLP	$133,098
Greenberg Traurig	$78,250	Allied Management Inc	$22,000
NORPAC	$70,550	Connell Foley	$18,250
Prudential Financial	$66,800	Maser Consulting	$17,250
DeCotiis, FitzPatrick & Cole	$48,150	B&L Tire	$15,000
Kindred Healthcare	$48,000	Berkeley College	$15,000
Verizon Communications	$47,050	CJ Hesse	$15,000
Medco Health Solutions	$41,249	GlobalTel	$15,000
DLA Piper	$41,000	Langer Transport Corp	$15,000
Dade Medical College	$40,000	Fgi Finance	$14,000

Top industries

^[28]

Bob Menendez	Contribution	Joe Kyrillos	Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms	$1,633,843	Lawyers/Law Firms	$312,845
Real Estate	$1,096,684	Retired	$103,900
Lobbyists	$578,182	Financial Institutions	$98,200
Financial Institutions	$532,651	Real Estate	$98,150
Health Professionals	$524,810	Health Professionals	$62,100
Retired	$411,525	Business Services	$60,250
Construction Services	$388,550	Construction Services	$54,300
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products	$353,250	Universities	$51,250
Insurance	$338,550	General Contractors	$39,500
Leadership PACs	$328,244	Misc Business	$38,550

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[29]	Likely D	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[30]	Likely D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report^[31]	Safe D	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics^[32]	Likely D	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Menendez (D)	Joseph Kyrillos (R)	Other	Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University	January 3–9, 2011	802	±3.5%	41%	29%	—	30%
Public Policy Polling	July 15–18, 2011	480	±4.5%	48%	29%	—	23%
Farleigh Dickinson University	September 19–25, 2011	800	±3.5%	49%	28%	—	22%
Farleigh Dickinson University	January 2–8, 2012	800	±3.5%	43%	31%	—	26%
Rutgers-Eagleton Archived July 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	February 9–11, 2012	914	±3.3%	44%	22%	1%	26%
Survey USA	February 24–26, 2012	533	±4.3%	46%	31%	—	23%
Quinnipiac Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	February 21–27, 2012	1,396	±2.6%	49%	34%	1%	14%
Farleigh Dickinson University	March 5–11, 2012	396	±2.6%	43%	33%	—	23%
Quinnipiac Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	April 3–9, 2012	1,607	±2.4%	44%	35%	1%	20%
Fairleigh Dickenson/PublicMind	April 30 – May 6, 2012	400	±5%	42%	33%	—	24%
Quinnipiac Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	May 9–14, 2012	1,582	±2.5%	45%	35%	2%	19%
Quinnipiac Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	July 9–14, 2012	1,623	±2.5%	47%	34%	1%	16%
Monmouth University Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	July 18–22, 2012	535 LV	±2.5%	44%	35%	1%	19%
Monmouth University Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	July 23–27, 2012	849 RV	±2.5%	45%	33%	1%	22%
Rutgers-Eagleton	August 23–25, 2012	688 LV	±3.7%	47%	35%	8%	10%
Quinnipaic University Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	August 27 – September 2, 2012	1,471 LV	±2.5%	50%	40%	—	10%
Quinnipaic University Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	September 6–12, 2012	706 LV	±2.5%	50%	36%	—	16%
Philadelphia Inquirer Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	September 9–12, 2012	600 LV	±2.5%	43%	32%	—	12%
Monmouth University Archived September 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	September 19–23, 2012	613 LV	±2.5%	49%	34%	—	15%
Philadelphia Inquirer	October 4–8, 2012	604 LV	±4%	49%	35%	—	15%
Quinnipiac	October 10–14, 2012	1,319 LV	±2.7%	55%	37%	—	15%
Stockton	October 12–18, 2012	811 LV	±3.5%	52%	30%	—	18%
SurveyUSA	October 17–18, 2012	577 LV	±4.2%	53%	33%	5%	9%
Philadelphia Inquirer	October 23–25, 2012	601 LV	±4%	50%	32%	—	18%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Menendez (D)	Jennifer Beck (R)	Other	Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University	January 3–9, 2011	802	±3.5%	42%	29%	—	29%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Menendez (D)	Lou Dobbs (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 6–9, 2011	520	±4.3%	47%	35%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Menendez (D)	Lou Dobbs (I)	Other	Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University	January 4–10, 2010	801	±3.5%	37%	34%	—	28%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Menendez (D)	Michael Doherty (R)	Other	Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University	February 23 – March 1, 2010	801	±3.5%	40%	27%	8%	25%
Fairleigh Dickinson University	January 3–9, 2011	802	±3.5%	40%	30%	—	30%
Public Policy Polling	July 15–18, 2011	480	±4.5%	48%	35%	—	17%
Farleigh Dickinson University	September 19–25, 2011	800	±3.5%	49%	30%	—	22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Menendez (D)	Kim Guadagno (R)	Other	Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University	January 3–9, 2011	802	±3.5%	47%	26%	—	27%
Public Policy Polling	January 6–9, 2011	520	±4.3%	45%	30%	—	24%
Public Policy Polling	July 15–18, 2011	480	±4.5%	48%	34%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Menendez (D)	Woody Johnson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 15–18, 2011	480	±4.5%	48%	30%	—	22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Menendez (D)	Tom Kean Jr. (R)	Other	Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University	January 23 – February 1, 2010	801	±3.5%	35%	45%	2%	15%
Fairleigh Dickinson University	February 23 – March 1, 2010	801	±3.5%	38%	39%	6%	17%
Fairleigh Dickinson University	January 3–9, 2011	802	±3.5%	44%	34%	—	22%
Public Policy Polling	January 6–9, 2011	520	±4.3%	41%	39%	—	19%
Public Policy Polling	July 15–18, 2011	480	±4.5%	44%	39%	—	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Menendez (D)	Anna Little (R)	Other	Undecided
Farleigh Dickinson University	January 2–8, 2012	800	±3.5%	43%	31%	—	26%
Survey USA	February 24–26, 2012	533	±4.3%	48%	29%	—	23%

Results

United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2012^[33]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Bob Menendez (incumbent)	1,987,680	58.87%	+5.50%
	Republican	Joe Kyrillos	1,329,534	39.37%	−4.97%
	Libertarian	Kenneth R. Kaplan	16,803	0.50%	−0.15%
	Green	Ken Wolski	15,801	0.47%	N/A
	Independent	Gwen Diakos	9,359	0.28%	N/A
	Independent	J. David Dranikoff	3,834	0.11%	N/A
	Independent	Inder "Andy" Soni	3,593	0.11%	N/A
	Independent	Robert "Turk" Turkavage	3,532	0.10%	N/A
	Socialist	Greg Pason	2,249	0.07%	−0.04%
	Independent	Eugene M. LaVergne	2,198	0.07%	N/A
	Independent	Daryl Brooks	2,066	0.06%	−0.17%
Total votes			3,376,649	100.0%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Somerset (largest municipality: Franklin Township)
Salem (largest municipality: Pennsville Township)

By congressional district

Menendez won 9 of 12 congressional districts, including the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th districts, which elected Republicans to the House.^[34]

District	Menendez	Kyrillos	Representative
1st	66.7%	31.7%	Rob Andrews
2nd	54.6%	43.3%
2nd	54.6%	43.3%	Frank LoBiondo
3rd	51.9%	46.8%	Jon Runyan
4th	44.8%	53.5%	Chris Smith
5th	49.3%	48.8%	Scott Garrett
6th	60.7%	37.4%	Frank Pallone
7th	46.1%	51.8%	Leonard Lance
8th	80.4%	17.7%	Bill Pascrell (112th Congress)
8th	80.4%	17.7%	Albio Sires (113th Congress)
9th	70.4%	27.9%	Steve Rothman (112th Congress)
9th	70.4%	27.9%	Bill Pascrell (113th Congress)
10th	88.0%	10.7%	Donald Payne Jr.
11th	47.5%	50.8%	Rodney Frelinghuysen
12th	66.0%	32.2%	Rush Holt Jr.

References

^ Chen, David W. (December 8, 2005). "Corzine Is Said to Have Picked a Replacement". The New York Times. Retrieved December 29, 2010.
^ Menendez for Senate 2012
^ ^a ^b [1]
^ ^a ^b Symons, Michael (April 10, 2012). "Menendez unopposed in Senate primary after rival rejected". Asbury Park Press. Retrieved April 15, 2012.
^ Friedman, Matt (January 19, 2012). "N.J. Sen. Joseph Kyrillos to seek U.S. Senate seat". The Star-Ledger. Retrieved January 19, 2012.
^ Jennings, Rob (February 15, 2012). "Local man launches bid for U.S. Senate". New Jersey Herald. Retrieved February 17, 2012.
^ Portnoy, Jenna (February 16, 2012). "Gov. Christie makes campaign appearance for N.J. Sen. Joe Kyrillos' U.S. Senate bid". The Star-Ledger. Retrieved February 20, 2012.
^ Pizarro, Max (September 21, 2011). "Linker ends his conservative bid for the U.S. Senate". PolitickerNJ. Retrieved October 23, 2011.
^ "Winners and Losers: Conventions Edition". Politicker NJ. March 18, 2012. Retrieved March 19, 2012.
^ Sen. Diane Allen on lessons from the campaign trail | NJ.com
^ Greenbaum, Mark (November 30, 2010). "Opinion: Will Christie wage battle to defeat Menendez in 2012?". The Record. Retrieved December 29, 2010.
^ Margolin, Josh (November 3, 2010). "Gov. Christie, U.S. Sen. Menendez expected to clash in long-awaited N.J. political battle". The Star-Ledger. Retrieved December 29, 2010.
^ "Crowley Won't Run For Senate - Hotline On Call". Archived from the original on July 2, 2011. Retrieved June 30, 2011.
^ Pizarro, Max (February 10, 2012). "Doherty formally backs Kyrillos for Senate". PolitickerNJ. Retrieved February 17, 2012.
^ "Field is clearing for Kyrillos run for U.S. Senate". The Star-Ledger. December 18, 2011. Retrieved December 19, 2011.
^ D'Aprile, Shane (December 12, 2010). "New Jersey GOP lacking a name to face a more vulnerable Menendez". The Hill. Retrieved December 29, 2010.
^ Friedman, Matt (January 5, 2011). "N.J. Assemblyman Jay Webber resigns as Republican state chairman". The Star-Ledger. Retrieved January 5, 2011.
^ "NJ Greens Pick Ken Wolski as Candidate for U.S. Senate". Atlantic Highlands Herald. March 13, 2012. Archived from the original on July 20, 2012. Retrieved April 15, 2012.
^ Isherwood, Darryl R. (October 6, 2011). "Tinton Falls resident to challenge Menendez in primary". PolitickerNJ. Retrieved October 23, 2011.
^ "Ken Kaplan for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on February 20, 2012. Retrieved April 15, 2012.
^ "Socialist Party MOC Nominates Pat Noble for Red Bank Board of Education". Socialist Party of Monmouth and Ocean Counties. February 16, 2012. Retrieved April 15, 2012.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ "NJ 101.5 to Host US Senate Debate". September 17, 2012.
^ "NJ U.S. Senate Debate Planned". October 5, 2012.
^ Bob Menendez Campaign Finances
^ Joseph Kyrillos Campaign Finances
^ Kenneth R. Kaplan
^ [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=NJS1 OpenSecrets
^ Contributors by Industry (opensecrets.org)
^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "Official List Candidates for US Senate - For GENERAL ELECTION 11/06/2012" (PDF). New Jersey Secretary of State. December 6, 2012. Retrieved November 7, 2013.
^ "Daily Kos".

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

[1] Chen, David W. (December 8, 2005). "Corzine Is Said to Have Picked a Replacement". The New York Times. Retrieved December 29, 2010.

[2] Menendez for Senate 2012

[autogenerated1-3] [1]

[app-4] Symons, Michael (April 10, 2012). "Menendez unopposed in Senate primary after rival rejected". Asbury Park Press. Retrieved April 15, 2012.

[5] Friedman, Matt (January 19, 2012). "N.J. Sen. Joseph Kyrillos to seek U.S. Senate seat". The Star-Ledger. Retrieved January 19, 2012.

[6] Jennings, Rob (February 15, 2012). "Local man launches bid for U.S. Senate". New Jersey Herald. Retrieved February 17, 2012.

[7] Portnoy, Jenna (February 16, 2012). "Gov. Christie makes campaign appearance for N.J. Sen. Joe Kyrillos' U.S. Senate bid". The Star-Ledger. Retrieved February 20, 2012.

[8] Pizarro, Max (September 21, 2011). "Linker ends his conservative bid for the U.S. Senate". PolitickerNJ. Retrieved October 23, 2011.

[9] "Winners and Losers: Conventions Edition". Politicker NJ. March 18, 2012. Retrieved March 19, 2012.

[10] Sen. Diane Allen on lessons from the campaign trail | NJ.com

[11] Greenbaum, Mark (November 30, 2010). "Opinion: Will Christie wage battle to defeat Menendez in 2012?". The Record. Retrieved December 29, 2010.

[12] Margolin, Josh (November 3, 2010). "Gov. Christie, U.S. Sen. Menendez expected to clash in long-awaited N.J. political battle". The Star-Ledger. Retrieved December 29, 2010.

[13] "Crowley Won't Run For Senate - Hotline On Call". Archived from the original on July 2, 2011. Retrieved June 30, 2011.

[14] Pizarro, Max (February 10, 2012). "Doherty formally backs Kyrillos for Senate". PolitickerNJ. Retrieved February 17, 2012.

[field_clearing-15] "Field is clearing for Kyrillos run for U.S. Senate". The Star-Ledger. December 18, 2011. Retrieved December 19, 2011.

[16] D'Aprile, Shane (December 12, 2010). "New Jersey GOP lacking a name to face a more vulnerable Menendez". The Hill. Retrieved December 29, 2010.

[17] Friedman, Matt (January 5, 2011). "N.J. Assemblyman Jay Webber resigns as Republican state chairman". The Star-Ledger. Retrieved January 5, 2011.

[18] "NJ Greens Pick Ken Wolski as Candidate for U.S. Senate". Atlantic Highlands Herald. March 13, 2012. Archived from the original on July 20, 2012. Retrieved April 15, 2012.

[19] Isherwood, Darryl R. (October 6, 2011). "Tinton Falls resident to challenge Menendez in primary". PolitickerNJ. Retrieved October 23, 2011.

[20] "Ken Kaplan for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on February 20, 2012. Retrieved April 15, 2012.

[21] "Socialist Party MOC Nominates Pat Noble for Red Bank Board of Education". Socialist Party of Monmouth and Ocean Counties. February 16, 2012. Retrieved April 15, 2012.^{[permanent dead link]}

[22] "NJ 101.5 to Host US Senate Debate". September 17, 2012.

[23] "NJ U.S. Senate Debate Planned". October 5, 2012.

[24] Bob Menendez Campaign Finances

[25] Joseph Kyrillos Campaign Finances

[26] Kenneth R. Kaplan

[27] [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=NJS1 OpenSecrets

[28] Contributors by Industry (opensecrets.org)

[29] "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[30] "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[31] "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[32] "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[OfficialGenResults-33] "Official List Candidates for US Senate - For GENERAL ELECTION 11/06/2012" (PDF). New Jersey Secretary of State. December 6, 2012. Retrieved November 7, 2013.

[34] "Daily Kos".

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Democratic primary

Candidates

Polling

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Results

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Top contributors

Top industries

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

See also

References

External links