2024 United States presidential election in Virginia
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Virginia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
The last Republican to win this state's electoral votes was fellow Southerner George W. Bush in 2004, and the last Republican to do so by double digits was the elder Bush in 1988. Formerly a Republican stronghold and a Southern state mostly in the Bible Belt, Democratic strength in the state has greatly increased over the last two decades and it is now considered a slightly to moderately blue state at the federal level. That is primarily due to the rapid growth and diversification of the Northern Virginia region, which includes some of the Washington metropolitan area's largest suburbs. The downstate metro areas of Hampton Roads and Greater Richmond are also major voting blocs for Democrats in Virginia. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by just over 10 points, becoming the first presidential Democrat to do so by double digits since landslide victor FDR in 1944.
Despite its Democratic lean at the federal level, Virginia could be considered a secondary battleground state and may be targeted by the GOP in 2024, mainly due to the 2021 state elections where Republicans won every statewide office being contested.[1][2] Nonetheless, most analysts consider Democrats the favorites to hold the Old Dominion.[3] Some polls have labelled Virginia as a tossup state in the election cycle, with tighter margins than in 2020.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Virginia Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state and all 11 of its congressional districts, securing 99 pledged delegates. Activist Marianne Williamson garnered 8% of the vote total, which was her second best performance on Super Tuesday after Oklahoma.
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 317,329 | 88.51% | 99 | 99 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 28,599 | 7.98% | 0 | 0 | |
| Dean Phillips | 12,586 | 3.51% | 0 | 0 | |
| Total: | 358,514 | 100.00% | 99 | 19 | 118 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Virginia Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump defeated former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, attaining 42 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention in July. Trump performed best in southwest Virginia, while Haley's strength lay in Charlottesville, Albemarle County, the urban areas of Richmond and the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C.
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald J. Trump | 440,416 | 62.99% | 39 | 3 | 42 |
| Nikki Haley | 244,586 | 34.98% | 6 | 6 | |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 7,494 | 1.07% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 3,384 | 0.48% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 2,503 | 0.36% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 853 | 0.12% | |||
| Total: | 699,236 | 100.00% | 45 | 3 | 48 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[6] | Likely D | June 12, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[7] | Likely D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Likely D | August 27, 2024 |
| The Economist[9] | Lean D | August 23, 2024 |
| CNalysis[10] | Very Likely D | August 18, 2024 |
| CNN[11] | Lean D | August 18, 2024 |
| RCP[12] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| 538[13] | Likely D | August 23, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. ends his presidential campaign. | ||||||
| Quantus Polls and News[14] | August 20–22, 2024 | 629 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| Roanoke College[15] | August 12–16, 2024 | 691 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 44% | 10%[b] |
| Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| Emerson College[16] | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[17] | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 42% | 12% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College[18] | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% | ||
| SoCal Research[19][A] | July 6–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College[20] | August 12–16, 2024 | 691 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 42% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 7%[c] |
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | |||||||||
| New York Times/Siena College[18] | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 38% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 11% |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 39% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 10% | ||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | |||||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[17] | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 37% | 10% | 12% |
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 38% | 10% | 9% | ||
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[16] | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50%[d] | 50% | – | ||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[17] | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 42% | 11% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College[18] | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 45% | 7% | ||
| SoCal Research[19][A] | July 6–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Fox News[21] | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,107 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Roanoke College[22] | May 12–21, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[23][B] | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[24][C] | April 26–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 42% | 16% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University[25] | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Mason-Dixon[26] | December 15–19, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Roanoke College[27] | November 12–20, 2023 | 686 (A) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Change Research/Change Research/Future Majority (D)[28] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,437 (RV) | – | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| Research America Inc.[29][D] | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 37% | 26% |
| Roanoke College[30] | August 6–15, 2023 | 702 (A) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 42% | 17% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University[31] | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.4% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Roanoke College[32] | May 14–23, 2023 | 678 (A) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 38% | 8% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[33] | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Roanoke College[34] | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[16] | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 43% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College[18] | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 38% | 36% | 9% | 0% | 2% | 15% |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 38% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 13% | ||
| Virginia Commonwealth University[35] | June 24 – July 3, 2024 | 809 (A) | ± 4.8% | 36% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 13%[e] |
| Fox News[21] | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,107 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| Roanoke College[22] | May 12–21, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[23][B] | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[17] | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 38% | 11% | 10% |
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 39% | 10% | 9% | ||
| co/efficient (R)[36] | June 11–12, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 41% | 7% | 11% |
| Mason-Dixon[26] | December 15–19, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 36% | 14% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Change Research/Future Majority (D)[28] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,437 (RV) | – | 40% | 39% | 7% | 14% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Change Research/Future Majority (D)[28] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,437 (RV) | – | 37% | 37% | 7% | 5% | 14% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University[25] | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 38% | 43% | 19% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University[25] | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Research America Inc.[29][D] | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University[31] | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[33] | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Roanoke College[34] | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 48% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Glenn Youngkin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Glenn Youngkin Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research America Inc.[29][D] | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 34% | 29% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University[31] | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 37% | 44% | 19% |
| Roanoke College[34] | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 39% | 55% | 6% |
See also
[edit]- 2024 Virginia elections
- United States presidential elections in Virginia
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Someone else" with 8%. "Refused" and "Undecided" with 1% each
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%. "Chase Oliver" with 2%."Undecided" with 2%.
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Undecided" with 6%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%; "Someone else" & "Refused" with 2%
References
[edit]- ^ https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpoll/RCPoll%20March%202023%20Topline.pdf
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
- ^ "Virginia Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "Virginia Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Harris: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved August 14, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
- ^ "Analysis of the 2024 General Election Survey in Virginia". Quantus Polls and News. August 23, 2024.
- ^ "Roanoke College Poll: Harris holds slim lead over Trump in Virginia". Roanoke College. August 20, 2024.
- ^ a b c Mumford, Camille (July 18, 2024). "Virginia 2024 Poll: Trump 45%, Biden 43%". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b c d "Small Trump Bump Post-Assassination Attempt, New Poll Shows". FAU Polling. July 17, 2024.
- ^ a b c d Nagourney, Adam; Igielnik, Ruth (July 15, 2024). "Biden Facing Challenges in Two Must-Win States, Times/Siena Polls Find". The New York Times – via NYTimes.com.
- ^ a b "On Point Politics/SoCal Research Old Dominion State Survey". Google Docs. July 11, 2024.
- ^ "Roanoke College Poll: Harris holds slim lead over Trump in Virginia". Roanoke College. August 20, 2024.
- ^ a b Balara, Victoria (June 6, 2024). "Fox News Poll: Biden, Trump in a dead heat in Virginia". Fox News.
- ^ a b "Roanoke College Poll: Biden and Trump tied in Virginia". www.roanoke.edu.
- ^ a b "x.com".
- ^ "New Poll Shows Strong Opposition to Legalizing Skill Games". May 11, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Virginia Commonwealth University" (PDF).
- ^ a b Times-Dispatch, ANDREW CAIN Richmond (January 5, 2024). "Biden leads Trump in Virginia in potential rematch, poll says". Richmond Times-Dispatch.
- ^ "Roanoke College Poll: Virginians have mixed opinions on direction of Virginia and the nation". www.roanoke.edu.
- ^ a b c "Change Research/Future Majority (D)" (PDF).
- ^ a b c Marvashti, Lisa Chinn (September 29, 2023). "Statewide Survey Considers 2024 Biden, Trump Presidential Rematch". News.
- ^ "Latest Roanoke College Poll looks at opinions of Virginians on political issues". www.roanoke.edu.
- ^ a b c "August 2023 Commonwealth Poll Press Release.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ "Roanoke College Poll: Political anxiety is up among Virginians". www.roanoke.edu.
- ^ a b "x.com".
- ^ a b c "Roanoke College Poll looks at top issues in Virginia". www.roanoke.edu.
- ^ "Trump Leads Biden by 3 Points in Virginia - Wilder Research - Virginia Commonwealth University". research.wilder.vcu.edu.
- ^ co/efficient (R)
