2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
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| Elections in Wisconsin |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Wisconsin voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A former Blue Wall state in the Upper Midwest partly located in the Rust Belt, Wisconsin is a clearly purple state today. In 2016, Donald Trump very narrowly won Wisconsin by 0.77% in his surprise sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt, becoming the first Republican since Reagan in his 1984 landslide to win the state's electoral votes; but in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden flipped Wisconsin back into the blue column by an even more narrow 0.63%. Given the state's competitive electoral history coupled with its nearly even partisan lean, Wisconsin is considered to be a crucial battleground in 2024, with most major news organizations marking the state as a tossup.[2]
The last presidential Republican to win Wisconsin by double digits was fellow Midwesterner Dwight D. Eisenhower; the last one to win the state twice was Ronald Reagan; and the only presidential candidates to carry the state by double digits after 1956 were Democrats Lyndon B. Johnson, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama (the latter representing neighboring Illinois) in 1964, 1996 and 2008, respectively.
The Wisconsin Green Party has attained ballot access after not appearing in 2020.[3]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Wisconsin Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside contests in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 512,379 | 88.6% | 82 | 82 | |
| Uninstructed | 48,373 | 8.4% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 17,730 | 3.1% | |||
| Total: | 578,482 | 100.0% | 82 | 13 | 95 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Wisconsin Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside contests in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald J. Trump | 477,103 | 78.97% | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 76,841 | 12.72% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 20,124 | 3.33% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 13,057 | 2.16% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 9,771 | 1.62% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 5,200 | 0.86% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Write-ins | 2,081 | 0.34% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 604,177 | 100.00% | 41 | 0 | 41 |
General election
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The Republican Party held their their presidential nomination convention in the Wisconsin city of Milwaukee, where Donald Trump and JD Vance were formally nominated as the GOP ticket.[6][7] This year marked the first time that Milwaukee hosted the Republican National Convention as in 2020 it was scheduled to occur there but was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Democratic Party's National Convention has been held one time in Milwaukee which was in 1996.[7][8]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[9] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Tossup | August 20, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Tossup | August 26, 2024 |
| CNN[12] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| The Economist[13] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| 538[14] | Lean D | August 27, 2024 |
| RCP[15] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| CNalysis[16] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[17] | Tossup | May 8, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | July 22 – August 14, 2024 | August 15, 2024 | 48.6% | 47.6% | 3.8% | Harris +1.0% |
| 270ToWin | August 10 – August 19, 2024 | August 24, 2024 | 49.0% | 45.0% | 6.0% | Harris +4.0% |
| 538 | through August 27, 2024 | August 27, 2024 | 47.8% | 44.2% | 8.0% | Harris +3.6% |
| Silver Bulletin | through August 27, 2024 | August 27, 2024 | 49.3% | 45.7% | 5.0% | Harris +3.6% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through August 16, 2024 | August 24, 2024 | 49.5% | 46.2% | 4.3% | Harris +3.3% |
| Race to the WH | through August 16, 2024 | August 24, 2024 | 48.8% | 46.7% | 4.5% | Harris +2.1% |
| Average | 48.65% | 45.9% | 5.45% | Harris +2.75% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. ends his presidential campaign. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[18][A] | August 13–19, 2024 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Focaldata[19] | August 6–16, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 48% | – |
| Quantus Polls and News[20][B] | August 14–15, 2024 | 601 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| TIPP Insights[C] | August 12–14, 2024 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| 976 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 47% | 6% | ||
| The Bullfinch Group[D] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | August 6–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Navigator Research (D)[21] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[22] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College | August 5–8, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 46% | 3% | ||
| Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| RMG Research | July 31 – August 5, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Marquette University Law School | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49%[c] | 50% | 1% | ||
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 45% | 6% | ||
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50%[c] | 49% | 1% | ||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[E] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | July 24–28, 2024 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Fox News | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Emerson College | July 22–23, 2024 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| 845 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 51%[c] | 49% | – | ||
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| North Star Opinion Research[C] | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Emerson College | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| 603 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 48% | 6% | ||
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[23][A] | August 13–19, 2024 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Focaldata[24] | August 6–16, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 44% | 4% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 42% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | ||
| 700 (A) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 43% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[25] | August 12–15, 2024 | 469 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| The Bullfinch Group[D] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College | August 5–8, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 42% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | ||
| Navigator Research (D)[26] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[27] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 48% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 597 (LV) | – | 43% | 43% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| Marquette University Law School | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 43% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | July 24–28, 2024 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 6% | – | 0% | 3% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 22–24, 2024 | 523 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 5% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Fox News | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | July 22–23, 2024 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs[G] | July 13–16, 2024 | 514 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University Law School | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 47% | 9% | ||
| Emerson College[H] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | July 11–12, 2024 | 653 (V) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[J] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| North Star Opinion Research[C] | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | July 1–5, 2024 | 695 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[K] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| Emerson College[H] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 593 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School | June 12–20, 2024 | 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 50%[c] | 50% | – | ||
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 44% | 9% | ||
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51%[c] | 49% | – | ||
| Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[c] | 51% | – | ||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 40% | 38% | 22%[d] |
| 290 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 40% | 41% | 19%[e] | ||
| KAConsulting (R)[L] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Prime Group[M] | May 9–16, 2024 | 488 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% | ||
| Quinnipiac University | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48%[c] | 52% | – | ||
| CBS News/YouGov | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Fox News | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,198 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 51% | – |
| 736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 51% | – | ||
| North Star Opinion Research[N] | April 6–9, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[O] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Emerson College/The Hill | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48%[c] | 52% | – | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–14, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Emerson College | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Kaplan Strategies | February 23, 2024 | 941 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Marquette University Law School | January 24–31, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| 808 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 50% | 1% | ||
| Fox News | January 26–30, 2024 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 681 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| J.L. Partners | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Emerson College | October 30 - November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| 819 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 45% | 10% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 48% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 532 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[P] | September 25–26, 2023 | 673 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Prime Group[Q] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 53% | 47% | – |
| 500 (RV) | – | 37% | 40% | 23%[f] | ||
| Marquette University Law School | June 8–13, 2023 | 913 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 43% | 4% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Emerson College | September 16–18, 2022 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[R] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 52% | 6% |
| Marquette University Law School | October 26–31, 2021 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 15–17, 2024 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College[H] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 6%[g] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[J] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 5%[h] |
| YouGov[S] | July 4–12, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 38% | 43% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | July 1–5, 2024 | 695 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[K] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 44% | 9% | – | 3% | 6%[i] |
| Marquette University Law School | June 12–20, 2024 | 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 43% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 3%[j] |
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 44% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2%[k] | ||
| Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| J.L. Partners | June 5–10, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| KAConsulting (R)[L] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 42% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 6%[l] |
| Prime Group[M] | May 9–16, 2024 | 488 (RV) | – | 44% | 44% | 7% | 3% | 2% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 38% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 14%[m] |
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 40% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 13%[m] | ||
| Quinnipiac University | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 4% | 4% |
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Fox News | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,198 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Marquette University Law School | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 40% | 41% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 41% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ||
| North Star Opinion Research[N] | April 6–9, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 4% | 9% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Emerson College/The Hill | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–14, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Emerson College | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 41% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Marquette University Law School | January 24–31, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 40% | 16% | 2% | 4% | 1% |
| 808 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 39% | 41% | 13% | 2% | 4% | 1% | ||
| Fox News | January 26–30, 2024 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 43% | 10% | 0% | 2% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 681 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 40% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 13% |
| J.L. Partners/Daily Mail | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 37% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 12%[n] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs[G] | July 13–16, 2024 | 514 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 47% | 3% | 3% |
| North Star Opinion Research[C] | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 11% | 15%[o] |
| P2 Insights[T] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 4% | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 38% | 31% | 13% | 18% |
| 290 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 40% | 35% | 12% | 13% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 37% | 35% | 22% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 13% | 2% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/YouGov | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 48% | 8% | 0% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Emerson College | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 47% | 46% | 7% |
JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
JB Pritzker Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 47% | 46% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University Law School | January 24–31, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 57% | 2% |
| 808 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 57% | 1% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 39% | 53% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 53% | 3% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 50% | 1% |
| Marquette University Law School | June 8–13, 2023 | 913 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Wisconsin
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c d e f g h With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Another candidate" with 12%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 11%
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
- ^ a b Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 12%
- ^ Jill Stein (G) with 3%; Chase Oliver (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ Poll sponsored by Trending Politics
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ a b Poll conducted for The Independent Center
- ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- ^ a b c d e f g Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- ^ Poll conducted for Protect Our Care
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ a b Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- ^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
- ^ D'Andrea, Robert (February 9, 2024). "Green Party candidate will appear on Wisconsin's presidential ballot". WPR. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ "Wisconsin Presidential Primary". The AP. May 7, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- ^ "Wisconsin Presidential Primary". Dave Leip's Atlas. May 7, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- ^ Baker, Graeme (July 15, 2024). "JD Vance named as Trump's running mate". BBC (Digital). Retrieved August 12, 2024.
- ^ a b "RNC 2024: Dates, which city has hosted the most conventions, and how Wisconsin impacts the presidential race". NBC 5 Chicago (Digital). July 2, 2024. Retrieved August 12, 2024.
- ^ Glauber, Bill; Spicuzza, Mary (March 11, 2019). "Milwaukee wins tight race to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Digital). Retrieved August 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN.
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- ^ Morris, G. Elliott. "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight.
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- ^ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections.
- ^ "Toplines - NUSA August 2024 Wisconsin". Rasmussen Reports. August 27, 2024.
- ^ Chalfant, Morgan; Sarlin, Benjy (August 19, 2024). "Harris leads Trump in five of seven battlegrounds: poll". Semafor.
- ^ "2024 Wisconsin Presidential Race: Harris and Trump Neck and Neck in Crucial Battleground State". Quantus Polls and News. August 17, 2024.
- ^ Russell, Rachael (August 20, 2024). "Navigating the Vote: 2024 Presidential Battleground". Navigator Research.
- ^ Walter, Amy (August 14, 2024). "The Fight To Redefine the 2024 Race for President". Cook Political Report.
- ^ "Toplines - NUSA August 2024 Wisconsin". Rasmussen Reports. August 27, 2024.
- ^ Chalfant, Morgan; Sarlin, Benjy (August 19, 2024). "Harris leads Trump in five of seven battlegrounds: poll". Semafor.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 15 August 2024)". August 19, 2024.
- ^ Russell, Rachael (August 20, 2024). "Navigating the Vote: 2024 Presidential Battleground". Navigator Research.
- ^ Walter, Amy (August 14, 2024). "The Fight To Redefine the 2024 Race for President". Cook Political Report.
