2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky
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| Elections in Kentucky |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Kentucky voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kentucky has 8 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A Southern state completely in the Bible Belt, Republicans have won Kentucky by double digits since 2000. The state last voted Democratic for fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996. Kentucky is widely expected to continue its Republican streak in 2024.
Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[3] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.
Former Republican President Donald Trump is running for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.[4]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Kentucky Democratic presidential primary was held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 131,449 | 71.33% | 43 | 43 | |
| Uncommitted | 32,908 | 17.86% | 8 | 8 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 11,190 | 6.07% | 0 | ||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 8,744 | 4.74% | 0 | ||
| Total: | 184,291 | 100.00% | 53 | 6 | 59 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Kentucky Republican caucuses were held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald J. Trump | 215,044 | 85.0% | 46 | 46 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 16,232 | 6.4% | |||
| Uncommitted | 8,984 | 3.5% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 7,803 | 3.1% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 2,461 | 1.0% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,640 | 0.7% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 900 | 0.4% | |||
| Total: | 253,064 | 100.0% | 46 | 46 | |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[7] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[11] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[13] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[14] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[15] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[16] | October 1–3, 2023 | 450 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[17] | August 9–10, 2023 | 737 (V) | – | 55% | 34% | 11% |
| co/efficient (R)[18] | May 18–19, 2023 | 987 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 57% | 33% | 10% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Kentucky
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
- ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
- ^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
- ^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. July 2, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 6, 2023). "Kentucky 2023 Poll: Beshear Holds 16-Point Lead Over Cameron in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Public Policy Polling (D)" (PDF).
- ^ "Kentucky Governor Memo 5.21 - coefficient". May 22, 2023. Archived from the original on May 22, 2023.
