2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska
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| Elections in Nebraska |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nebraska voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nebraska has 5 electoral votes.
Nebraska has voted Republican in nearly every presidential election since its statehood, making exceptions only for favorite son William Jennings Bryan; Woodrow Wilson; Franklin D. Roosevelt in his first two terms; and landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson. Presidential Democrats have not even been able to come within single digits of carrying the state after LBJ's narrow sweep in his 1964 landslide, and the only one to win more than 40% of the state vote since then was Barack Obama who garnered 41.60% in 2008.
However, the state's slightly blue 2nd congressional district, which contains Omaha and some of its suburbs, has been competitive since 2008, when Obama narrowly won the district by 1.22% in the first election where Nebraska — one of two states that can split their electoral votes, the other being Maine — awarded a Democrat any of its electoral votes in 44 years. This leftward shift is primarily owed to recent population growth experienced by the Omaha metropolitan area. In 2020, NE-2 flipped back to the Democratic column when Joe Biden won it by 6.5%. Nebraska at-large is expected to remain solidly red, while NE-2 is considered a tossup or leaning towards the Democratic candidate.[1] Tim Walz, the running mate of Kamala Harris and incumbent governor of Minnesota, was born and raised in Nebraska.[2] (NE-1 is considered to be a moderately to strongly red district, while NE-3 is an extremely red district which should be the easiest electoral vote for Republicans to win, analogous to the District of Columbia for Democrats).
In 2024, there was a push from some Republicans who attempted to get rid of split electoral college vote to winner-takes-all voting. This was supported by Former President Donald Trump, Governor Jim Pillen, 2nd District Congressman Don Bacon,[3] and Charlie Kirk from Turning Point USA.[4][5][6]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Nebraska Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 84,677 | 90.2% | 28 | 28 | |
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 9,199 | 9.8% | 1 | ||
| Total: | 93,876 | 100.0% | 29 | 5 | 34 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Nebraska Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald J. Trump | 167,968 | 79.3% | 36 | ||
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 38,246 | 18.1% | |||
| Perry Johnson (withdrawn) | 3,902 | 1.8% | |||
| Write-in votes[9] | 1,671 | 0.8% | |||
| Total: | 211,787 | 100.0% | 36 | 36 | |
Libertarian primary
[edit]The Nebraska Libertarian primary was held on May 14, 2024. Six candidates were on the ballot.[10]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Oliver | 309 | 27.6% |
| Charles Ballay | 237 | 21.2% |
| Jacob Hornberger | 204 | 18.2% |
| Lars Mapstead | 180 | 16.1% |
| Michael Rectenwald | 120 | 10.7% |
| Mike ter Maat | 69 | 6.2% |
| Total: | 1,119 | 100.0% |
| Source:[11] | ||
General election
[edit]Ballot access
[edit]Parties and candidates on ballot as of April 11, 2024:[12]
- Democratic – Kamala Harris for president and Tim Walz for vice president
- Legal Marijuana Now – nominees TBD
- Libertarian – nominees TBD
- Republican – Donald Trump for president and J. D. Vance for vice president
Additionally, the Kennedy/Shanahan campaign claims to have collected enough signatures to be on the ballot.[13]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking (Statewide) | Ranking (1st) | Ranking (2nd) | Ranking (3rd) | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[14] | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D | Solid R | August 27, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Safe R | Solid R | Lean D | Solid R | August 20, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16] | Safe R | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis[17] | Solid R | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | August 27, 2024 |
| CNN[18] | Solid R | Solid R | Tossup | Solid R | August 27, 2024 |
| The Economist[19] | Safe R | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | August 27, 2024 |
| 538[20] | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D | Solid R | August 27, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[21] | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D | Solid R | May 8, 2024 |
| RCP[22] | Solid R | Solid R | Tossup | Solid R | August 27, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[23][A] | July 8–11, 2024 | 698 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 33% | 15%[b] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[24] | April 24–25, 2024 | 737 (V) | ± 3.6% | 57% | 34% | 9% |
| Change Research (D)[25][B] | November 13–16, 2023 | 1,048 (LV) | – | 53% | 35% | 12% |
| Emerson College[26] | October 1–4, 2023 | 423 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 31% | 23% |
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group (R)[C][27] | August 14–17, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 42% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[23][A] | July 8–11, 2024 | 300 (LV) | – | 42% | 42% | 16%[c] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[24] | April 24–25, 2024 | – | – | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[24] | April 24–25, 2024 | – | – | 34% | 37% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Light Intelligence[28][D] | May 17–22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 37% | 13% | 8% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Nebraska
- 2024 Nebraska elections
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the campaign of U.S. Senator Deb Fischer, who has endorsed Trump
- ^ Poll sponsored by Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety
- ^ Poll sponsored by Nebraska Examiner
- ^ Poll commissioned by League of American Workers
References
[edit]- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
- ^ Searcey, Dionne (August 6, 2024). "Walz Grew Up in Rural Nebraska, Where Finding a Date 'Was Kind of a Problem'". The New York Times.
- ^ Montellardo, Zach (April 10, 2024). "Nebraska Republicans float special session to revive Trump-backed election rule change". Politico. Retrieved May 2, 2024.
- ^ Pengelly, Martin (April 3, 2024). "Far-right podcaster prompts Nebraska move to change electoral system". The Guardian.
- ^ Kerr, Nicholas (April 3, 2024). "Lawmakers skeptical of enacting Trump-backed bill in Nebraska that could give him edge over Biden". ABC News.
- ^ Kamisar, Ben; Bowman, Bridget; Smith, Allan (April 3, 2024). "Trump and GOP leaders push to change Nebraska electoral votes to winner-take-all". NBC News.
- ^ "Nebraska Presidential Primary". AP News. June 17, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
- ^ Evnen, Robert (May 14, 2020). "The Nebraska Board of State Canvassers Official Report" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
- ^ "Nebraska Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved May 14, 2024.
- ^ "Statewide Candidate List List as of 3/18/2024 10:41:21 AM" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ "Nebraska Secretary of State – Election Night Results – May 14th, 2024". Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
- ^ "Political parties in Nebraska". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
- ^ Wegley, Andrew (April 10, 2024). "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has enough signatures to appear on Nebraska ballot, his campaign says". Omaha World-Herald. Retrieved April 19, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN.
- ^ "Trump v Harris: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott. "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics.
- ^ a b Sanderford, Aaron (July 19, 2024). "Fischer, Trump lead statewide in Fischer's new Nebraska poll • Nebraska Examiner".
- ^ a b c "Public Policy Polling (D)" (PDF).
- ^ "Change Research (D)" (PDF).
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 13, 2023). "Nebraska Poll: Trump Maintains Lead but Biden Cuts into 2020 Vote". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Sanderford, Aaron (August 20, 2024). "Harris leads Trump in new Nebraska 2nd District poll". Nebraska Examiner.
- ^ "News — League of American Workers". archive.ph. May 29, 2024.
