2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia
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| Elections in West Virginia |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. West Virginia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of West Virginia has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost one congressional seat.[1]
Despite being a Democratic stronghold for much of the 20th century, West Virginia — as a rural Southern state in the heart of Appalachia and largely within the Bible Belt — has trended dramatically towards the Republican Party in the 21st century. The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state was fellow Southerner Bill Clinton, who did so comfortably in both of his 1990s victories. A large factor in West Virginia's rightward trend is the Democratic Party's adoption of more liberal policies – especially environmentalist policies, anathema to the state's coal-dominated economy. Environmentalism was notably embraced by 2000 Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore, also a Southerner, who consequently lost the state by just under six points despite having been vice president under the popular Clinton.
Starting with the 2000 presidential election, West Virginia has seen a mass of counties flip to the GOP at this level, with Republicans consistently carrying the state's electoral votes by double digits since Southerner George W. Bush did so in 2004; and the last Democratic presidential nominee to win at least 40% of the West Virginian vote or carry any county in the state being Barack Obama in 2008. Furthermore, West Virginia was Republican Donald Trump's strongest state in 2016 and his second-strongest state (trading places with Wyoming) in 2020. Nowadays, West Virginia is a deeply red state with Republicans holding all statewide offices since 2021 apart from one U.S. Senate seat, which is expected to flip solidly Republican in a concurrent election.[2] Trump is expected to easily win the state again in 2024.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The West Virginia Democratic presidential primary was held on May 14, 2024, alongside the Maryland and Nebraska primaries. 25 delegates (20 pledged and 5 unpledged) to the Democratic National Convention were allocated to presidential candidates.[3]
Four candidates have been certified to appear on the primary ballot:[4]
- Joe Biden
- Stephen Lyons
- Armando Perez-Serrato
- Dean Phillips
Results
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 68,164 | 70.5% | 20 | 20 | |
| Jason Palmer | 11,079 | 11.5% | |||
| Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) | 7,371 | 7.6% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 7,222 | 7.5% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 2,786 | 2.9% | |||
| Total: | 96,622 | 100.0% | 20 | 5 | 25 |
Republican primary
[edit]The West Virginia Republican presidential primary was held on May 14, 2024, alongside the Maryland and Nebraska primaries. 31 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a winner-take-all basis.[6]
Five candidates have been certified to appear on the primary ballot:[4]
- Ryan Binkley
- Nikki Haley
- David Stuckenberg
- Rachel Swift
- Donald Trump
Results
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald J. Trump | 199,497 | 88.4% | 32 | 32 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 21,231 | 9.4% | |||
| Rachel Swift | 2,326 | 1.0% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 1,481 | 0.7% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 1,168 | 0.5% | |||
| Total: | 225,703 | 100.0% | 32 | 32 | |
Mountain primary
[edit]The Mountain primary (the state's Green Party affiliate) is scheduled to be held on May 14, 2024.
Only one candidate was certified to appear on the primary ballot,[4] who will receive all 4 of the state's pledged delegates:[8]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[9] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[10] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[13] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[14] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[15] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[16] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[17] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[18] | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 59% | 23% | 18% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jill Stein Mountain |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaplan Strategies[19] | June 4, 2024 | 464 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 28% | 2% | 15% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in West Virginia
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin". 270toWin.com. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
- ^ "West Virginia Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 4, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Who is running for election in West Virginia?". ballotpedia.org. February 4, 2024. Retrieved February 4, 2024.
- ^ "West Virginia Presidential Primary". AP News. June 24, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
- ^ "West Virginia Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. October 13, 2023. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
- ^ "West Virginia Presidential Primary". AP News. June 24, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
- ^ "Apportionment of GPUS National Committee 2023 and GPUS Presidential Nominating Convention 2024". GPUS National Committee. Retrieved February 3, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 13, 2023). "West Virginia 2024 Poll: Sen. Manchin Faces Uphill Battle Against Gov. Justice, but Leads Rep. Mooney". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Kaplan Strategies" (PDF).
