2024 United States presidential election in Vermont
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Vermont is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Vermont voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Vermont has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
As a sparsely populated rural state in northern New England, Vermont was historically a moderate/liberal "Yankee Republican" stronghold, having backed the GOP in all but one presidential election between the party's formation and George H. W. Bush's narrow victory in 1988: Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. However, an influx of more liberal voters has turned Vermont into a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level since the early 1990s, as the state has been won by the Democratic candidate in every presidential race starting in 1992, all of these victories being by double digits apart from Al Gore's 9.93% win in 2000.
Vermont was Biden's strongest state in 2020, with a margin of 35.4%. Today a strongly blue state and one of the most progressive states in the U.S., Vermont is favored to remain comfortably in the Democratic presidential column in 2024.[2]
Primary elections
[edit]Republican primary
[edit]The Vermont Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Nikki Haley won the primary, becoming the first woman to win a state primary in a Republican presidential primary.[3]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Nikki Haley | 36,241 | 49.32% | 9 | 9 | |
| Donald J. Trump | 33,162 | 45.13% | 8 | 8 | |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,020 | 1.39% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 949 | 1.29% | |||
| Write-ins | 586 | 0.80% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 546 | 0.74% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 278 | 0.38% | |||
| Overvotes | 51 | 0.07% | |||
| Blank ballots | 654 | 0.89% | |||
| Total: | 73,487 | 100.00% | 17 | 17 | |
Democratic primary
[edit]The Vermont Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Joe Biden won the primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 56,924 | 82.98% | 16 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 2,873 | 4.19% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 1,942 | 2.83% | |||
| Other write-ins | 1,260 | 1.84% | |||
| Mark Greenstein | 779 | 1.14% | |||
| Rashida Tlaib (write-in) | 763 | 1.11% | |||
| Cenk Uygur | 700 | 1.02% | |||
| "Blank" (write-in) | 556 | 0.81% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 404 | 0.59% | |||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) (Independent) | 322 | 0.47% | |||
| Bernie Sanders (write-in) (Independent) | 288 | 0.42% | |||
| Nikki Haley (write-in) (Republican) | 187 | 0.27% | |||
| Kamala Harris (write-in) | 23 | 0.03% | |||
| Overvotes | 73 | 0.10% | |||
| Blank ballots | 1,525 | 2.22% | |||
| Total: | 68,599 | 100% | 16 | 8 | 24 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[7] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[11] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[13] | Safe D | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[14] | Solid D | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[15] | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald J. Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. ends his presidential campaign. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| University of New Hampshire[16] | August 15–19, 2024 | 924 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 70% | 29% | 1% |
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[17] | August 15–19, 2024 | 924 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 67% | 27% | 3% | 0% | – | 0% | 3%[b] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald J. Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[18] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 117 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 58% | 28% | 14% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[18] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 111 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 59% | 28% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[19] | April 13–21, 2024 | 272 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[19] | April 13–21, 2024 | 272 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 29% | 19% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Vermont
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Note
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved April 1, 2024.
- ^ Vakil, Caroline (March 6, 2024). "Haley defeats Trump in Vermont Republican primary". The Hill. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
- ^ "Official Report of the Canvassing Committee – United States and Vermont Statewide Offices" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
- ^ "OFFICIAL REPORT OF THE CANVASSING COMMITTEE UNITED STATES AND VERMONT STATEWIDE OFFICES" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
- ^ "Vermont Election Night Results". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Harris Holds Wide Lead Over Trump in Vermont, Many Worried About Peaceful Transfer of Power". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. August 21, 2024.
- ^ "Harris Holds Wide Lead Over Trump in Vermont, Many Worried About Peaceful Transfer of Power". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. August 21, 2024.
- ^ a b "March 4, 2023 – FAU PolCom Lab".
- ^ a b "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24.
