2024 United States presidential election in Washington (state)

The 2024 United States presidential election in Washington is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Washington voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Washington has 12 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

Although Washington was a Republican-leaning swing state until the 1980s, Democrats have won Washington in every presidential election starting in 1988 and have consistently done so by double digits since 2008. Washington is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and is predicted to go comfortably to the Democratic party in 2024.

Primary election

Republican primary

The Washington Republican primary is scheduled to be held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Mississippi, and Missouri.

Washington Republican primary, March 12, 2024^[2]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald J. Trump	601,070	76.43%	43	0	43
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	151,485	19.26%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	17,870	2.27%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	8,702	1.11%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	7,318	0.93%	0	0	0
Total:	786,445	100.00%	43	0	43

Democratic primary

The Washington Democratic primary took place on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Democrats Abroad, Northern Marianas, Mississippi, and Georgia.

Washington Democratic primary, March 12, 2024^[3]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	763,739	83.5%	90
Uncommitted delegates	89,764	9.8%	2
Marianne Williamson	25,308	2.8%	0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	25,190	2.8%	0
Write-in votes	10,966	1.2%	0
Total:	914,967	100.0%	92	19	111

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[4]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[5]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[6]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[7]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[8]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN^[9]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist^[10]	Likely D	July 9, 2024
538^[11]	Likely D	June 11, 2024
RCP^[12]	Solid D	June 26, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
SurveyUSA^[13]^[b]	July 10–13, 2024	708 (LV)	± 5.0%	51%	36%	13%

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)^[14]^[A]	July 24–25, 2024	581 (LV)	± 4.0%	52%	38%	6%	4%

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
SurveyUSA^[13]^[c]	July 10–13, 2024	708 (LV)	± 5.0%	50%	36%	14%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[15]^[A]	May 15–16, 2024	615 (LV)	± 4.0%	55%	39%	6%
The Independent Center^[16]	April 16–23, 2024	250 (RV)	± 6.2%	45%	46%	9%
Echelon Insights^[17]^[B]	March 18–21, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.7%	48%	37%	15%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[18]^[A]	February 13–14, 2024	797 (LV)	± 3.5%	54%	38%	8%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[19]^[A]	November 14–15, 2023	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	52%	38%	10%
Crosscut/Elway^[20]	October 30 – November 3, 2023	403 (RV)	± 5.0%	39%	29%	31%^[d]
Public Policy Polling (D)^[21]^[A]	June 7–8, 2023	773 (LV)	± 3.5%	53%	36%	11%
Emerson College^[22]	September 30 – October 1, 2022	782 (LV)	± 3.4%	49%	39%	12%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)^[23]	August 15–17, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	54%	41%	6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Crosscut/Elway^[20]	October 30 – November 3, 2023	403 (RV)	± 5.0%	37%	25%	9%	3%	26%^[e]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Cascade PBS/Elway Research^[24]	May 13–16, 2024	403 (RV)	± 5.0%	42%	34%	3%	1%	0%	17%
The Independent Center^[16]	April 16–23, 2024	250 (RV)	± 6.2%	35%	40%	13%	1%	4%	8%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)^[21]^[A]	June 7–8, 2023	773 (LV)	± 3.5%	51%	39%	10%

Notes

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, & University of Washington Information School
^ Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, & University of Washington Information School
^ "Someone else" with 22%; "Undecided" with 8%; "I would not vote" with 1%
^ "Undecided" with 14%; "Someone else" with 11%; "I would not vote" with 2%

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
^ Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC

References

^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
^ "Washington Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
^ "March 12, 2024 Presidential Primary Results". Washington Secretary of State. March 23, 2024. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
^ ^a ^b "Beneath the surface, blue WA has a massive political fault line". The Seattle Times. July 17, 2024.
^ Villeneuve, Andrew (July 26, 2024). "Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a fourteen point lead over Donald Trump among likely Washington Top Two voters".
^ Villeneuve, Andrew (May 20, 2024). "Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State remains at sixteen points, with slightly fewer voters undecided".
^ ^a ^b "The Independent Center" (PDF).
^ "Concerned Tax Payers of WA State March 2024 WA State Survey Deck.pdf". Google Docs.
^ Villeneuve, Andrew (February 17, 2024). "Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State rebounds to sixteen points".
^ Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Joe Biden has a fourteen point, eleven month out lead over Donald Trump in Washington".
^ ^a ^b Crosscut/Elway
^ ^a ^b Villeneuve, Andrew (June 12, 2023). "Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Washington by seventeen points, Ron DeSantis by twelve".
^ "Emerson College" (PDF).^{[permanent dead link]}
^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
^ Blankinship, Donna Gordon. "Poll: Almost half of WA voters are undecided on governor's race | Cascade PBS News". crosscut.com.

[key-13] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[15] Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, & University of Washington Information School

[18] Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, & University of Washington Information School

[26] "Someone else" with 22%; "Undecided" with 8%; "I would not vote" with 1%

[30] "Undecided" with 14%; "Someone else" with 11%; "I would not vote" with 2%

[NPI-17] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute

[22] Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

[2] "Washington Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 5, 2024.

[3] "March 12, 2024 Presidential Primary Results". Washington Secretary of State. March 23, 2024. Retrieved April 5, 2024.

[4] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[5] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[6] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[7] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[8] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[9] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

[10] "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.

[11] Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.

[12] "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.

[WA-auto2-14] "Beneath the surface, blue WA has a massive political fault line". The Seattle Times. July 17, 2024.

[16] Villeneuve, Andrew (July 26, 2024). "Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a fourteen point lead over Donald Trump among likely Washington Top Two voters".

[19] Villeneuve, Andrew (May 20, 2024). "Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State remains at sixteen points, with slightly fewer voters undecided".

[WA-auto1-20] "The Independent Center" (PDF).

[21] "Concerned Tax Payers of WA State March 2024 WA State Survey Deck.pdf". Google Docs.

[23] Villeneuve, Andrew (February 17, 2024). "Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State rebounds to sixteen points".

[24] Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Joe Biden has a fourteen point, eleven month out lead over Donald Trump in Washington".

[WA-auto-25] Crosscut/Elway

[WA-auto3-27] Villeneuve, Andrew (June 12, 2023). "Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Washington by seventeen points, Ron DeSantis by twelve".

[28] "Emerson College" (PDF).^{[permanent dead link]}

[29] McLaughlin & Associates (R)

[31] Blankinship, Donna Gordon. "Poll: Almost half of WA voters are undecided on governor's race | Cascade PBS News". crosscut.com.

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