2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey
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The 2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg won re-election to a fifth, non-consecutive term, defeating former Republican congressman Dick Zimmer, who was also the nominee for this seat in 1996. As of 2023, this is the last time where both major party nominees for this Senate seat were white men.
Background
[edit]In November 2006, Senator Lautenberg had the lowest approval rating of any Democrat running for re-election in 2008 (with 39% approving and 45% disapproving),[1] with his approval improving only slightly to 42% as of September 2007. In the same September 2007 poll conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, voters surveyed decided that Lautenberg does not deserve re-election (46% to 36%) and that he is too old to effectively serve another six years in the Senate (54% to 40%).[2]
Poll results suggested that given the right formula, this could have been a surprise upset race in November 2008. "The poll shows that Sen. Frank Lautenberg, who many voters say is too old to run for another term, would be vulnerable to a strong Republican candidate next year," according to Quinnipiac pollster Clay Richards.[2]
The first poll conducted after the primaries (Rasmussen Reports, June 4, 2008) showed a tighter than expected race between Lautenberg and Zimmer, with the two candidates in a virtual tie.[3]
However, the prevailing political climate at the time of the election was also a major factor. Voter anger was targeted against the GOP, and many Democrats once considered vulnerable managed to hold on.
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Rob Andrews, U.S. Representative from Haddon Heights
- Donald Cresitello, Mayor of Morristown
- Frank Lautenberg, incumbent U.S. Senator
Polling
[edit]| Source | Date | Frank Lautenberg |
Rob Andrews |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Benenson | April 1–2, 2008 | 52% | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 15, 2008 | 49% | 19% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Frank Lautenberg | 203,012 | 58.9% | |
| Democratic | Rob Andrews | 121,777 | 35.3% | |
| Democratic | Donald Cresitello | 19,743 | 5.7% | |
| Total votes | 344,532 | 100.0% | ||
Results by county
[edit]| County | Lautenberg | % | Andrews | % | Cresitello | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic | 4,798 | 45.4% | 5,287 | 50.1% | 472 | 4.5% |
| Bergen | 26,848 | 78.9% | 5,645 | 16.6% | 1,554 | 4.6% |
| Burlington | 7,757 | 42.4% | 9,483 | 51.8% | 1,059 | 5.8% |
| Camden | 5,995 | 16.5% | 29,175 | 80.1% | 1,256 | 3.4% |
| Cape May | 1,433 | 45.4% | 1,566 | 49.6% | 159 | 5.0% |
| Cumberland | 1,746 | 46.1% | 1,799 | 47.5% | 246 | 6.5% |
| Essex | 31,844 | 76.4% | 8,671 | 20.8% | 1,190 | 2.9% |
| Gloucester | 3,135 | 17.0% | 14,775 | 80.0% | 563 | 3.0% |
| Hudson | 28,446 | 74.8% | 8,233 | 21.7% | 1,343 | 3.5% |
| Hunterdon | 2,061 | 58.8% | 1,180 | 33.7% | 264 | 7.5% |
| Mercer | 10,093 | 74.0% | 3,053 | 22.4% | 494 | 3.6% |
| Middlesex | 17,131 | 62.0% | 7,918 | 28.7% | 2,573 | 9.3% |
| Monmouth | 10,570 | 66.3% | 3,568 | 22.4% | 1,808 | 11.3% |
| Morris | 8,432 | 65.0% | 3,151 | 24.3% | 1,394 | 10.7% |
| Ocean | 8,869 | 57.9% | 5,037 | 32.9% | 1,421 | 9.3% |
| Passaic | 9,842 | 79.3% | 1,700 | 13.7% | 872 | 7.0% |
| Salem | 928 | 31.9% | 1,734 | 59.6% | 248 | 8.5% |
| Somerset | 5,640 | 64.7% | 2,209 | 25.3% | 873 | 10.0% |
| Sussex | 1,379 | 52.7% | 784 | 29.9% | 456 | 17.4% |
| Union | 15,103 | 67.6% | 6,179 | 27.7% | 1,060 | 4.7% |
| Warren | 962 | 47.4% | 630 | 31.0% | 438 | 21.6% |
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Joseph Pennacchio, State Senator from Rockaway Township
- Murray Sabrin, professor at Ramapo College and perennial candidate
- Dick Zimmer, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996
Withdrew
[edit]- Anne Evans Estabrook, real estate developer[5]
- Andrew Unanue, former Goya Foods executive (endorsed Zimmer)[6]
Declined
[edit]- Kip Bateman, State Senator from Neshanic Station[7]
- Mehmet Oz, cardiologist[8]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dick Zimmer | 84,663 | 45.8% | |
| Republican | Joseph Pennacchio | 74,546 | 40.3% | |
| Republican | Murray Sabrin | 25,576 | 13.8% | |
| Total votes | 184,785 | 100.0% | ||
Official results, New Jersey Division of Elections (PDF, July 11, 2008)
Results by county
[edit]| County | Zimmer | % | Pennacchio | % | Sabrin | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic | 3,909 | 65% | 1,322 | 22% | 810 | 13% |
| Bergen | 5,145 | 30% | 10,761 | 62% | 1,384 | 8% |
| Burlington | 8,629 | 63% | 2,869 | 21% | 2,276 | 16% |
| Camden | 3,123 | 49% | 2,166 | 34% | 1,036 | 16% |
| Cape May | 3,615 | 70% | 1,034 | 20% | 483 | 9% |
| Cumberland | 1,566 | 72% | 395 | 18% | 225 | 10% |
| Essex | 3,592 | 57% | 2,262 | 36% | 493 | 8% |
| Gloucester | 1,206 | 26% | 2,161 | 47% | 1,254 | 27% |
| Hudson | 1,487 | 48% | 955 | 31% | 641 | 21% |
| Hunterdon | 5,519 | 60% | 2,730 | 30% | 977 | 11% |
| Mercer | 2,555 | 56% | 1,538 | 34% | 488 | 11% |
| Middlesex | 2,603 | 33% | 4,195 | 54% | 1,021 | 13% |
| Monmouth | 7,981 | 56% | 4,630 | 33% | 1,510 | 11% |
| Morris | 8,094 | 36% | 12,700 | 56% | 1,855 | 8% |
| Ocean | 10,875 | 48% | 4,820 | 21% | 6,778 | 30% |
| Passaic | 1,271 | 20% | 4,570 | 72% | 545 | 8% |
| Salem | 769 | 47% | 657 | 41% | 193 | 12% |
| Somerset | 5,227 | 46% | 4,875 | 43% | 1,170 | 10% |
| Sussex | 2,850 | 40% | 3,621 | 51% | 647 | 9% |
| Union | 2,896 | 32% | 4,653 | 52% | 1,388 | 15% |
| Warren | 1,751 | 46% | 1,632 | 43% | 402 | 11% |
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Major
[edit]- Frank Lautenberg, incumbent U.S. Senator
- Dick Zimmer, former U.S. Representative
Minor
[edit]- Jeff Boss (I)[9]
- Daryl Mikell Brooks (I)[9]
- J.M. Carter (I)[9]
- Carl Peter Klapper (Write In)[10]
- Sara Lobman (Socialist Workers)[9]
- Jason Scheurer (Libertarian)[9]
Debates
[edit]On October 29, 2008, a debate between Lautenberg and Zimmer was held on the radio station NJ 101.5.[11]
On November 1, 2008, the two candidates debated for the second time on New Jersey Network, in the only televised debate agreed to by the Lautenberg campaign.[12]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[13] | Safe D | October 23, 2008 |
| CQ Politics[14] | Likely D | October 31, 2008 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[15] | Safe D | November 2, 2008 |
| Real Clear Politics[16] | Likely D | October 31, 2008 |
Polling
[edit]| Source | Date | Frank Lautenberg (D) |
Dick Zimmer (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[17] | June 4, 2008 | 45% | 44% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 5–8, 2008 | 47% | 38% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | June 17–22, 2008 | 45% | 28% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 7, 2008 | 49% | 36% |
| Strategic Vision | July 11–13, 2008 | 48% | 32% |
| Monmouth University | July 17–21, 2008 | 45% | 37% |
| Club for Growth[18] | July 30–31, 2008 | 35% | 36% |
| Rasmussen Reports[19] | August 4, 2008 | 51% | 33% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 4–10, 2008 | 48% | 41% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | September 4–7, 2008 | 46% | 35% |
| Marist College Archived September 13, 2008, at the Wayback Machine | September 5–8, 2008 | 51% | 40% |
| The Record / Research 2000 | September 9–11, 2008 | 49% | 41% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 10–14, 2008 | 48% | 39% |
| Monmouth University | September 11–14, 2008 | 46% | 36% |
| Strategic Vision | September 14–16, 2008 | 47% | 40% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 16, 2008 | 49% | 42% |
| Survey USA | September 27–28, 2008 | 51% | 38% |
| Strategic Vision | September 26–28, 2008 | 48% | 41% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | September 29 – October 5, 2008 | 50% | 34% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 7, 2008 | 51% | 37% |
| Survey USA | October 11–12, 2008 | 51% | 38% |
| Monmouth University | October 15–18, 2008 | 52% | 36% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 16–19, 2008 | 55% | 33% |
| Marist College Archived January 9, 2009, at the Wayback Machine | October 20–21, 2008 | 48% | 41% |
| Strategic Vision | October 24–26, 2008 | 49% | 41% |
| Survey USA | October 29–30, 2008 | 52% | 37% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Frank Lautenberg (incumbent) | 1,951,218 | 56.03% | +2.15% | |
| Republican | Dick Zimmer | 1,461,025 | 41.95% | −2.00% | |
| Independent | Daryl Mikell Brooks | 20,920 | 0.60% | n/a | |
| Libertarian | Jason Scheurer | 18,810 | 0.54% | −0.05 | |
| Independent | J.M. Carter | 15,935 | 0.46% | n/a | |
| Independent | Jeff Boss | 10,345 | 0.30% | n/a | |
| Socialist Workers | Sara Lobman | 9,187 | 0.26% | n/a | |
| Total votes | 3,482,445 | 100.00% | n/a | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11152". SurveyUSA. November 2006. Retrieved February 5, 2007.
- ^ a b "Voters still say Lautenberg is too old". PolitickerNJ.com, September 25, 2007. Accessed April 8, 2008.
- ^ "Election 2008: New Jersey Senate - New Jersey Senate Race a Dead Heat" Archived June 22, 2008, at the Wayback Machine, Rasmussen Reports, June 9, 2008. Accessed June 9, 2008.
- ^ a b Official results for 2008 primary elections, New Jersey Division of Elections ||PDF Archived August 6, 2008, at the Wayback Machine, July 11, 2008)
- ^ PolitickerNJ (March 6, 2008). "Bateman considers U.S. Senate bid". Observer. Retrieved August 21, 2021.
The race changed yesterday with the surprise withdrawal of Anne Evans Estabrook, a millionaire businesswoman who had courted party leaders for almost a year. Estabrook suffered a mini-stroke on Monday and decided to quickly exit the contest.
- ^ Krashuaar, Josh (April 11, 2008). "New Jersey Senate merry-go-round continues". Politico. Retrieved August 21, 2021.
Former Goya Foods executive Andrew Unanue, whose campaign was controversy-ridden ever since he announced his candidacy on Easter Sunday, withdrew from the race today and threw his support behind former GOP Rep. Dick Zimmer.
- ^ PolitickerNJ (March 6, 2008). "Bateman considers U.S. Senate bid". Observer. Retrieved August 21, 2021.
- ^ Wildstein, David (January 12, 2023). "Democrats to Dr. Oz: run for office as a Republican in New Jersey, please". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e 2008 General Election Candidate Certification Archived October 1, 2008, at the Wayback Machine, New Jersey Division of Elections. Accessed September 28, 2008
- ^ "Home". carlpeterklapper.org. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- ^ Burton, Cynthia. "Lautenberg and Zimmer spar over issues", The Philadelphia Inquirer, October 30, 2008.
- ^ Schwaneberg, Robert. Lautenberg, Zimmer agree to debate on Nov. 1, The Star-Ledger, October 1, 2008.
- ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 31, 2008, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
- ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
- ^ "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election". Archived from the original on June 22, 2008.
- ^ "The Club For Growth - www.clubforgrowth.org". www.clubforgrowth.org. Archived from the original on October 23, 2008. Retrieved January 11, 2022.
- ^ "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election". Archived from the original on September 12, 2008.
External links
[edit]- Division of Elections from the New Jersey Secretary of State
- U.S. Congress candidates for New Jersey at Project Vote Smart
- New Jersey, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
- New Jersey U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- New Jersey U.S. Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
- Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets
- Zimmer (R) vs Lautenberg (D-i) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
- Frank Lautenberg, Democratic nominee
- Dick Zimmer, Republican nominee
- Jason Scheurer, Libertarian candidate
- Daryl Mikell Brooks, Independent candidate