2020 Northern Territory general election

2020 Northern Territory general election

22 August 2020
All 25 seats in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly 13 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	74.9% ( 0.9 pp)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Michael Gunner Lia Finocchiaro Terry Mills Party Labor Country Liberal Territory Alliance Leader since 20 April 2015 1 February 2020 November 2019 Leader's seat Fannie Bay Spillett Blain (lost seat) Last election 18 seats 2 seats Did not exist Seats before 17 2 3 Seats won 14 8 1 Seat change 4 6 1 Popular vote 40,291 32,021 13,184 Percentage 39.43% 31.34% 12.90% Swing 2.76 0.46 12.90 TPP 53.3% 46.7% TPP swing 3.9 3.9
Chief Minister before election Michael Gunner Labor Elected Chief Minister Michael Gunner Labor

The 2020 Northern Territory general election was held on 22 August 2020 to elect all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament.

Members were elected through full preferential instant-runoff voting in single-member electorates, after the optional preferential voting system introduced for the 2016 election was abolished by the Electoral Legislation Amendment Act 2019 in April 2019. The election was conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission, an independent body answerable to Parliament.

The incumbent centre-left Labor Party (ALP) majority government, led by Chief Minister Michael Gunner, won a second consecutive four-year term of government. It defeated the centre-right Country Liberal Party (CLP) opposition, led by Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro, and the regionalist big-tent Territory Alliance (TA) party, led by former Chief Minister Terry Mills.

ABC election analyst Antony Green called the election for the Labor Party nearly three hours after the polls closed. At the time it was not known if the party would claim a majority of seats, though on 24 August the ABC projected Labor had retained majority government. When the counting of votes concluded, Labor finished with 14 seats, enough for a two-seat majority on the floor of the Assembly. The Country Liberals won 8 seats, a gain of six from their landslide loss in the previous election, whilst 2 independents and 1 Territory Alliance candidate were elected. The new Gunner Ministry was sworn in on 8 September 2020.

Background

Previous election

At the 2016 election, the one-term incumbent Country Liberal Party (CLP) minority government, led by Chief Minister Adam Giles, was defeated by the Labor Party Opposition, led by Opposition Leader Michael Gunner. The CLP suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in the history of the Territory, and one of the worst defeats of a sitting government in the history of Australia. It was the first time that a sitting Northern Territory government was defeated after only one term. From 11 seats at dissolution (and 16 after the 2012 election), the CLP suffered the worst election performance in its history, winning only two seats. Labor won 18 seats, in the process winning the third-largest majority government in Territory history. Independents won five seats. With only two members in the CLP caucus, Gary Higgins became opposition leader and CLP leader while Lia Finocchiaro became deputy CLP leader on 2 September. Although the independent MPs outnumbered the CLP MPs, on official advice the CLP was recognised as the official opposition.

Additionally, Giles lost his seat of Braitling to Labor, making him only the second Chief Minister/Majority Leader and the third CLP leader to lose their seat at an election. Along with the seat of Katherine, the election represented the first time Labor had won a seat in Alice Springs or Katherine.

With the overall result beyond doubt, Gunner had himself, Natasha Fyles, and Nicole Manison sworn in as an interim three-person government on 31 August until the full Gunner Ministry could be sworn in on 12 September.

The position of Speaker of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly had been held by former CLP-turned-independent MP Kezia Purick since 23 October 2012. Despite Labor's massive majority following the 2016 election, the incoming Labor government re-appointed Purick as Speaker.

Labor expulsions

The composition of the Assembly was unchanged for over two years, with Labor Party holding 18 seats, the Country Liberal Party two and the remaining five by independents. In December 2018, the Labor Government dismissed three sitting members of the parliamentary party; the Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Vowles, Assistant Minister Jeff Collins and backbencher Scott McConnell. The trio were dismissed after publicly criticising the government's handling of the territory's long-term economic situation, following a report finding the budget to be in "structural deficit" with expenditure struggling to cover previous borrowings and day-to-day costs. They consequently became independents and sat on the crossbench. McConnell later announced he would not re-contest his seat at the election, though did end up running for the adjacent seat of Braitling.

Territory Alliance founding

In August 2019, Terry Mills, the independent member for the seat of Blain, announced the formation of a new regionalist big tent party known as Territory Alliance. Mills had previously been the leader of the CLP and was Chief Minister of the Northern Territory following the Country Liberal Party's (CLP) victory at the 2012 election. He was usurped for the leadership of the party by Adam Giles only six months into his Chief Ministership, defeated 11–5 in a party-room ballot. With Mills' presence in the Assembly, the new Territory Alliance held one seat. This increased to three seats in March 2020 when Jeff Collins (expelled by Labor in December 2018) and Robyn Lambley (the former deputy CLP leader who was re-elected as an independent in 2016) announced they had joined the party, taking Territory Alliance's representation in the Assembly to three seats. With more members in the Assembly than the CLP, Alliance sought to claim official opposition status, though they were defeated 5–3 in a secret Assembly ballot of non-Government MPs and the CLP retained opposition status, with Lia Finocchiaro remaining as Opposition Leader.

Johnston by-election

With Scott McConnell having announced his retirement at the election and Jeff Collins becoming a member of the Territory Alliance, Ken Vowles, the remaining member of the Labor trio to be expelled by the party, announced his immediate resignation from the Assembly in November 2019. This decision necessitated a by-election in the seat of Johnston to replace Vowles. The by-election was held on 29 February 2020 and was won by Labor candidate Joel Bowden, who claimed 52.6% of the two-candidate preferred vote. Labor's primary vote collapsed more than 21 points, making the seat a marginal contest at the general election. The Territory Alliance candidate usurped the Greens and CLP candidates into second place (47.4% of the two-candidate preferred vote), with the CLP primary vote dropping by more than 15 points and the party finishing in fourth place.

Election date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms, with elections to be held on the fourth Saturday of August every four years.

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the election were:

• 30 July 2020: Issue of the writ
• 30 July 2020: Nominations for candidates opened
• 31 July 2020: Electoral roll for voters closed (5:00 pm)
• 6 August 2020: Nominations for candidates closed
• 6 August 2020: Declaration of nominations and candidate positions on ballot papers
• 10 August 2020: Early voting and mobile voting commenced
• 10 August 2020: Applications for postal voting opened
• 20 August 2020: Postal voting dispatches ceased
• 21 August 2020: Last day for early voting
• 22 August 2020: Polling Day
• 4 September 2020: Last day for receipt of postal votes
• 7 September 2020: Declaration of election result
• TBD: Return of writ

Redistribution

Map of electoral boundaries used at the 2020 election

A boundary redistribution for electoral divisions in the Northern Territory commenced on 27 February 2019, with the boundary commission releasing its report of the final boundaries on 4 September 2019.

• Two seats were renamed: Nhulunbuy became Mulka, and Stuart became Gwoja (after Gwoya Tjungurrayi).
• The boundaries of the electoral division of Katherine had historically been matched to those of the Katherine Town Council for a number of years, although the direct enrolment update program by the Australian Electoral Commission had increased enrolment numbers, bringing the division 11.5% over quota. RAAF Base Tindal and the suburb of Venn were consequently transferred to the division of Arnhem.
• The seat of Gwoja (formerly Stuart) was extended south to the South Australian border, taking what was the western half of Namatjira.
• Namatjira gained electors from the town of Alice Springs, including the suburbs of Larapinta and Stuart, and parts of Araluen, Braitling, Mount Johns and Sadadeen. To compensate for the influx of Alice Springs electors, the boundaries of Namatjira contracted from the north and transferred to Barkly, and contracted from the west and transferred into Gwoja.

Pendulum

Government
  Labor (16)
Official Opposition
  Country Liberal (2)
Crossbench
  Territory Alliance (3)
  Independent (4)

Country Liberal seats
Marginal
Daly	Gary Higgins	CLP	1.7
Namatjira	Chansey Paech	ALP	2.0
Safe
Spillett	Lia Finocchiaro	CLP	15.3
Territory Alliance seats
Marginal
Blain	Terry Mills	TA	1.4 v ALP
Fong Lim	Jeff Collins	TA	5.6 (ALP v CLP)
Fairly safe
Araluen	Robyn Lambley	TA	8.6 v CLP
Independent seats
Mulka	Yingiya Mark Guyula	IND	0.1 v ALP
Nelson	Gerry Wood	IND	23.0 v CLP
Goyder	Kezia Purick	IND	25.3 v CLP

Notes

• This pre-election pendulum is based on post-redistribution estimates of margins calculated by ABC election analyst Antony Green.
• Members listed in italics are retiring at the 2020 election.

Post-election pendulum

Labor seats
Marginal
Blain	Mark Turner	ALP	0.2
Arnhem	Selena Uibo	ALP	1.6 v IND
Port Darwin	Paul Kirby	ALP	2.1
Fong Lim	Mark Monaghan	ALP	2.6
Arafura	Lawrence Costa	ALP	3.6
Fairly safe
Drysdale	Eva Lawler	ALP	7.9
Fannie Bay	Michael Gunner	ALP	9.6
Karama	Ngaree Ah Kit	ALP	9.8
Safe
Casuarina	Lauren Moss	ALP	15.9
Gwoja	Chansey Paech	ALP	16.2
Johnston	Joel Bowden	ALP	16.5
Wanguri	Nicole Manison	ALP	17.3
Sanderson	Kate Worden	ALP	19.3
Nightcliff	Natasha Fyles	ALP	24.3

Country Liberal seats
Marginal
Barkly	Steve Edgington	CLP	0.1
Namatjira	Bill Yan	CLP	0.3
Brennan	Marie-Clare Boothby	CLP	1.2
Daly	Ian Sloan	CLP	1.2
Braitling	Joshua Burgoyne	CLP	1.3
Katherine	Jo Hersey	CLP	2.3
Fairly safe
Nelson	Gerard Maley	CLP	8.3 v IND
Safe
Spillett	Lia Finocchiaro	CLP	15.0
Crossbench seats
Araluen	Robyn Lambley	TA	0.5 v CLP
Mulka	Yingiya Mark Guyula	IND	5.0 v ALP
Goyder	Kezia Purick	IND	6.8 v CLP

Registered parties

At the time of the election, eight parties were registered with the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (NTEC).

• Animal Justice Party
• Australian Labor Party (Northern Territory Branch)
• Ban Fracking Fix Crime Protect Water (formerly 1 Territory Party)
• Country Liberal Party of the Northern Territory

• Federation Party Northern Territory (formerly Australian Country Party)
• NT Greens Inc.
• Shooters and Fishers Party
• Territory Alliance

Opinion polling

Voting intention

Date	Firm	Primary vote
		ALP	CLP	TA	Ind	OTH
29 June 2020	uComms	34%	29%	11%	–	13%*
September 2019	MediaReach	29%	39%	–	22%	10%
2016 election		42.2%	31.8%	–	18.8%	7.2%
* Remainder were "uncommitted".

Retiring MLAs

Labor

• Gerry McCarthy (Barkly) – announced 12 May 2020
• Sandra Nelson (Katherine) – announced 20 March 2019

Country Liberal

• Gary Higgins (Daly) – announced 20 January 2020

Independent

• Gerry Wood (Nelson) – announced 15 February 2019

Candidates

There were 111 candidates who nominated for the election—the second-highest number of candidates in a Territory election, just under the 115 who nominated in 2016.

Sitting members are listed in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour. Where there is possible confusion, an asterisk is used.

Electorate	Held by	Labor candidate	CLP candidate	Territory Alliance candidate	Greens candidate	Other candidates
Arafura	Labor	Lawrence Costa	Gibson Illortaminni	George Laughton		Tristan Mungatopi (Ind)
Araluen	Independent	Jackson Ankers	Damien Ryan	Robyn Lambley	Bernard Hickey	Domenico Pecorari (AFP) Wayne Wright (Ind)
Arnhem	Labor	Selena Uibo	Jerry Amato			Ian Mongunu Gumbula (Ind) Lance Lawrence (Ind)
Barkly	Labor	Sid Vashist	Steve Edgington			Gadrian Hoosan (Ind) Daniel Mulholland (Ind)
Blain	Independent	Mark Turner	Matthew Kerle	Terry Mills
Braitling	Labor	Dale Wakefield	Joshua Burgoyne	Dale McIver	Chris Tomlins	Marli Banks (AFP) Kim Hopper (Ind) Scott McConnell (-)
Brennan	Labor	Tony Sievers	Marie-Clare Boothby	Abraham Mbemap		Peter Chandler (Ind)
Casuarina	Labor	Lauren Moss	Tony Schelling	Danial Kelly	Kendall Trudgen
Daly	CLP	Anthony Venes	Ian Sloan	Regina McCarthy	Will Kemp	Mick Denigan (Ind)
Drysdale	Labor	Eva Lawler	Leanne Butler	Fiona Lynch		Danielle Eveleigh (Ind) Brendan Killalea (Ind) Lash Lisson (BFFCPW) Raj Samson (Ind. UAP)
Fannie Bay	Labor	Michael Gunner	Tracey Hayes	Rebecca Jennings	Peter Robertson	Mark Mackenzie (Ind)
Fong Lim	Labor	Mark Monaghan	Kylie Bonanni	Jeff Collins		Amye Un (Ind)
Goyder	Independent	Mick Taylor	Phil Battye	Rachael Wright	Karen Fletcher	Pauline Cass (Ind) Trevor Jenkins (-) Kezia Purick* (Ind) Ted Warren (Ind)
Gwoja	Labor	Chansey Paech	Phillip Alice			Kenny Lechleitner (AFP)
Johnston	Labor	Joel Bowden	Gary Haslett	Steven Klose	Aiya Goodrich Carttling	Josh Thomas (Ind)
Karama	Labor	Ngaree Ah Kit	Brian O'Gallagher	Caleb Cardno
Katherine	Labor	Kate Ganley	Jo Hersey	Melanie Usher		Clinton Booth (Ind)
Mulka	Independent	Lynne Walker				Yingiya Mark Guyula (Ind)
Namatjira	CLP	Sheralee Taylor	Bill Yan	Matt Paterson	Nikki McCoy	Catherine Satour (AFP) Tony Willis (Ind)
Nelson	Independent	Steve Asher	Gerard Maley	Andy Harley		Beverley Ratahi (Ind)
Nightcliff	Labor	Natasha Fyles	Steve Doherty	Melita McKinnon	Billee McGinley	Shelley Landmark (AJP)
Port Darwin	Labor	Paul Kirby	Toby George	Gary Strachan	Timothy Parish	Leah Potter (Ind)
Sanderson	Labor	Kate Worden	Derek Mayger	Amelia Nuku
Spillett	CLP	Tristan Sloan	Lia Finocchiaro	Vanessa Mounsey
Wanguri	Labor	Nicole Manison	Jed Hansen	Michael Best

Results

Map of results by electorate.

Main article: Results of the 2020 Northern Territory general election

↓ 

14	2	1	8
ALP	Ind	TA	CLP

Results summary

Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV)

Party			Votes	%	+/-	Seats	+/-
	Labor		40,291	39.43	2.76	14	4
	Country Liberal		32,021	31.34	0.46	8	6
	Territory Alliance		13,184	12.90	New	1	1
	Independents		10,977	10.74	8.09	2	3
	Greens		4,453	4.46	1.49	0
	Australian Federation		942	0.92	New	0
	Ban Fracking Fix Crime Protect Water		226	0.22	3.36	0
	Animal Justice		78	0.08	New	0
Formal votes			102,172	96.54	−1.46
Informal votes			3,661	3.46	+1.46
Total			105,833	100		25
Registered voters / turnout			141,255	74.94	+0.92
Two-party-preferred vote
	Labor			53.3	3.9
	Country Liberal			46.7	3.9

Popular vote Labor   39.4% Country Liberal   31.3% Territory Alliance   12.9% Greens   4.4% Independents   10.7% Others   1.2%

Two-party preferred vote Labor   53.3% Country Liberal   46.7%

Seats Labor   56.0% Country Liberal   32.0% Territory Alliance   4.0% Independents   8.0%

The CLP regained a number of seats in traditional heartlands that it had lost to Labor in 2016, with the party winning back Braitling, Brennan and Katherine from the ALP. It also won the outback seats of Barkly and Namatjira by narrow margins. The ALP maintained its dominance of the Darwin/Palmerston area, holding all but two of the region's seats–accounting for almost all of its majority. The ALP managed to consolidate some of its gains from 2016. It retained Port Darwin and Drysdale, two seats it had only won once before 2016, while gaining Blain, a seat it had never won before. The ALP also won a majority of the two-party vote for only the third time ever in a Territory election.

Both incumbent independent MLAs running for reelection, Yingiya Mark Guyula and Kezia Purick, retained their seats, but long-serving independent Gerry Wood was succeeded by a CLP candidate in Nelson. The Territory Alliance won a single seat, with Robyn Lambley narrowly holding her seat of Araluen; party leader Terry Mills and Jeff Collins both lost their seats.

Seats changing hands

Members in italics did not re-contest their seats at this election. Margins are notional estimates by Antony Green.

Seat	Pre-election				Swing	Post-election
	Party		Member	Margin		Margin	Member	Party
Barkly		Labor	Gerry McCarthy	15.9	16.0	0.1	Steve Edgington	Country Liberal
Blain		Territory Alliance	Terry Mills	1.4 (IND)	N/A	0.2	Mark Turner	Labor
Braitling		Labor	Dale Wakefield	3.0	4.3	1.3	Joshua Burgoyne	Country Liberal
Brennan		Labor	Tony Sievers	2.6	3.8	1.2	Marie-Clare Boothby	Country Liberal
Fong Lim		Territory Alliance	Jeff Collins	5.6 (ALP)	−3.0	2.6	Mark Monaghan	Labor
Katherine		Labor	Sandra Nelson	1.6	3.9	2.3	Jo Hersey	Country Liberal
Namatjira		Labor	Chansey Paech	−2.0*	−1.7	0.3	Bill Yan	Country Liberal
Nelson		Independent	Gerry Wood	23.0	31.2	8.3	Gerard Maley	Country Liberal

• *Due to boundary changes, Namatjira was notionally CLP at the time of this election.

External links

• Northern Territory Electoral Commission: 2020 Territory Election Archived 2020-08-16 at the Wayback Machine
• ABC Elections: NT Votes 2020