2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey
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The 2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Jersey voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
As a densely-populated state in the Northeast, New Jersey has backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election starting in 1992, doing so consistently by double digits starting in 2008. In 2020, the state broke 57%–41% for Democrat Joe Biden of neighboring Delaware. However, early polling showed a tighter race in 2024 compared to previous election cycles.
Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claimed he had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot in May 2024.[2]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The New Jersey Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 458,281 | 88.2% | 124 | ||
| Uncommitted | 46,988 | 9.1% | 2 | ||
| Terrisa Bukovinac | 14,179 | 2.7% | |||
| Write-in votes | 1,269 | 0.2% | |||
| Total: | 520,717 | 100.0% | 126 | 20 | 146 |
Republican primary
[edit]The New Jersey Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 294,658 | 96.7% | 12 | 12 | |
| Write-in votes | 9,915 | 3.3% | |||
| Total: | 304,573 | 100.00% | 12 | 0 | 12 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[5] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[6] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[8] | Likely D | June 8, 2024 |
| CNalysis[9] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[10] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[11] | Lean D | July 19, 2024 |
| 538[12] | Likely D | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[13] | Likely D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United 2024 (R)[14] | July 1–2, 2024 | 477 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| co/efficient (R)[15] | June 26–27, 2024 | 810 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 41% | 20%[b] |
| Emerson College[16] | March 26–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United 2024 (R)[14] | July 1–2, 2024 | 477 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 43% | 8% | — | 3% | 3% |
| Emerson College[16] | March 26–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kamala Harris Tim Walz |
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| Republican | Donald Trump JD Vance |
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| Socialism and Liberation | Claudia de la Cruz Karina Garcia |
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| Socialist Workers | Rachele Fruit Margaret Trowe |
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| Independent | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Nicole Shanahan |
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| Socialist Equality | Joseph Kishore Jerome White |
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| Libertarian | Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat |
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| Green | Jill Stein Samson Kpadenou |
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| Constitution | Randall Terry Stephen Broden |
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| Total votes | |||||
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in New Jersey
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "Kennedy Collects Signatures Needed to Gain Ballot Access in New Jersey". Kennedy 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- ^ "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
- ^ "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ a b Wildstein, David (July 3, 2024). "GOP super PAC poll in N.J. shows Biden vs. Trump, Kim vs. Bashaw statistically tied". New Jersey Globe.
- ^ "co/efficient (R)".
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (April 2, 2024). "New Jersey 2024 Poll: Majority of Democrats Support Kim for U.S. Senate Nomination". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Secretary of State of New Jersey (August 9, 2024). "Official List Candidates for President For GENERAL ELECTION 11/05/2024 Election" (PDF). nj.gov. Retrieved August 15, 2024.
