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Progressive Muslim vote

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The progressive Muslim vote refers to the support that the majority of Muslims make in the West for electoral options of the political left. Different demographic and statistical studies have shown a consistent tendency for Muslims in Western countries to vote for progressive parties, usually social democrats, socialists or social liberals. This is despite the fact that some Western Muslims tend to be socially conservative, and thus opposed to certain issues often supported by the left such as LGBT rights, feminism, and abortion. This phenomenon has been analyzed by different scholars and academics.[1][2]

Analysis

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For some scholars, despite the differences on cultural and moral issues with the left, and the secularism normally associated with it, Muslims as voters are attracted to progressive parties for different reasons:[1][2][3]

  • In international politics; progressive governments tend to be closer to Muslim interests such as the Palestinian position in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, and opposition to interventions in the Middle East such as the Iraq War.
  • The left is often more critical or even hostile to Zionism, with some left movements being openly anti-Zionist.
  • Most Western Muslims have immigrant heritage, and left and center-left parties tend to be friendlier to immigrants and support more humanistic migration policies.
  • The right, especially the far right but also in some cases the center-right, have expressed anti-Islamic or Islamophobic positions, or are close to a base of ultra-conservative Christians hostile to Islam, which has alienated Muslim voters who do not have more choice than opting for parties opposed to them on the other side of the spectrum.
  • The existence of Islamic socialism and that the ideas and principles of Islam are close to socialism or progressive socioeconomic positions, so many Muslims, whilst differing with the cultural liberalism of the left, agree with their economic ideas.

Rafaela Dancygier from Princeton University mentions that the majority of Muslims in Europe are small business owners and micro-entrepreneurs who would not necessarily agree with left-wing policies such as tax increases and the welfare state, so would normally be akin to conservative center-right parties; the fact that they are not demonstrates the failure of the center-right to attract the Muslim voter out of fear of alienating its Christian base.[1]

Jonathan Lawrence of Boston College, on the other hand, argues that the left's association with Muslims is natural, since in the West, the majority of Muslims are working-class and of low socioeconomic status, and that workers' parties have recognised this. However, another important base of progressive parties is a liberal, secular and progressive middle class who support secularism, LGBT rights and feminism. As these values are not shared by the majority of Muslims, the left struggles to balance these two bases.[2]

Nevertheless, as Lawrence points out, this progressivism is paradoxical and does not extend to their views on politics in the Islamic world itself. Although the majority of voters in the Turkish and Tunisian diaspora supported progressive parties in their countries of residence when they cast their vote, in the elections in Turkey and Tunisia, they mostly supported conservative parties such as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party in Turkey and the Tunisian Ennahda party respectively.[2]

By region

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North America

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United States

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In the United States, the majority of Muslims vote for the Democratic Party.[4] Although the distribution between Democrats and Republicans among the non-black Muslim community in the United States used to be more even, with 50% of Muslims defining themselves as conservative and 30% as liberals,[4] this changed after the September 11 attacks, with the subsequent policies of George W. Bush in the "War on Terror", particularly the Iraq War, being unpopular among Muslims, with only 7% of American Muslims voting for Bush in 2004.[4] The majority of Muslims then voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, and for Hillary Clinton in 2016.[4] By 2018 only 10% of Muslims voted for the Republican Party, despite the party being more socially conservative.[4]

According to initial exit polls, around 69% of Muslims supported Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, although it was a slight decrease from the 82% who supported Hillary Clinton four years prior, despite the fact that many of President Donald Trump's measures were unpopular with Muslims, such as the ban on the entry of immigrants from seven Muslim-majority countries and the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.[5] According to a survey conducted by ISPU, most Muslims that voted for Trump identified as White (which until recently was what Arabs fell under in the United States census) and exhibited anti-Muslim sentiment as readily as non-Muslim Trump supporters.[5] More extensive surveys later conducted by YouGov/CCES showed that nearly 84% of Muslims voted for Biden in 2020.[6] Another survey conducted by Emgage/Muslim Public Affairs Council similarly showed a majority of Muslim voters (86%) backing Biden in the 2020 election.[7]

The only Muslim representatives in the United States Congress are from the Democratic Party. As of 2024, no US Senators to date have been Muslim, although Mehmet Oz, Republican nominee for senator from Pennsylvania in 2022, was the first to be nominated by either party.[8] As of 2024, notable Muslim U.S. representatives have included Keith Ellison, André Carson, Ilhan Omar, and Rashida Tlaib.[9][10][11][12]

During the Israel-Hamas war, some leaders of the Muslim American and Arab American communities in Michigan including Abandon Biden Campaign chair Samraa Luqman and Listen to Michigan spokesperson Abbas Alawieh urged their communities to withhold their support for President Biden's re-election campaign during the 2024 Michigan Democratic presidential primary to protest the Biden Administration's perceived support for Israel and lack of support for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.[13][14] Palestinian American Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib has endorsed the Listen to Michigan campaign.[14] According to the 2020 United States Census, Middle Eastern and North African peoples make up 3.1% of Michigan's population.[13] Michigan has one of the highest concentrations of Muslims in the United States.[14] The Biden campaign has sought to build a broad coalition of support during the lead-up to the 2024 United States presidential election.[14] Due to the efforts of the Listen to Michigan group, over 100,000 voters had voted uncommitted during the Michigan Democratic primary by 28 February 2024.[15][16] In Dearborn (which has significant Muslim and Arab communities), uncommitted votes accounted for 57% of votes.[17]

Canada

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In Canada, the Muslim community votes overwhelmingly for the Liberal and New Democratic parties.[18] In 2011 46% of Muslim Canadians had voted for the Liberals, with 38% for the NDP and only 12% for the Conservatives.[18] This support plummeted to 2% in 2015 when 65% of Muslims voted for the Liberal Party and 10% for the NDP.[18]

Europe

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United Kingdom

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A 2015 poll showed that 64% of British Muslims voted for the Labour Party, as opposed to 25% who voted Conservative.[19] The Conservative Party has been accused of Islamophobia, an allegation faced especially by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.[20] In 2017, 85% of Muslims voted for the Labour Party and only 11% for the Conservatives.[3] Notable figures in British politics who are Muslim include Sadiq Khan (Labour), Mayor of London,[21] and Humza Yousaf (Scottish National Party), First Minister of Scotland.[22]

During the Israel-Hamas war, the Labour Party faced criticism from British Muslim supporters after party leader Keir Starmer refused to support an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. In November 2023, eight Labour MPs including three British Muslims including Afzal Khan, Yasmin Qureshi, and Naz Shah resigned their frontbench positions in protest of the leadership's stance. 56 Labour MPs subsequently supported an unsuccessful Scottish National Party (SNP) amendment calling for a ceasefire to the conflict.[23] That same month, a Savanta snapshot poll found that 41% of Muslim voters felt negative about Labour since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.[24]

In late January 2024, The Guardian reported that Starmer's office had begun polling and holding focus groups among British Muslim voters after senior party officials expressed concern that Labour was losing the support of Muslim constituents.[25] In addition, a new website called "The Muslim Vote" was launched to mobilise British Muslim voters during the 2024 United Kingdom general election and encourage them to support MPs who supported an immediate ceasefire in Gaza during the November 2023 vote.[26][25][24]

In February 2024, polling conducted by polling company Survation indicated that Labour's support among Muslim voters had declined by 26 points to 80%.[26] The Survation poll also found that only 60% of British Muslim voters who had supported Labour during the 2019 United Kingdom general election were willing to vote for the party again at the next general election and that 85% of Muslim voters would vote for parties based on their position on the Israel Gaza war.[24] The Labour Muslim Network condemned the party's response to the Israel-Hamas war and warned that Muslim voters "will not support any political party that does not fervently oppose the crimes committed against the people of Gaza." Several Muslim Labour councillors in Oxford, Burnley, Blackburn and Walsall resigned, threatening Labour control of several local councils.[26] Labour also encountered challenges in several electorates with significant Muslim populations including Rochdale, Ilford North,[26] and the London borough of Newham.[24]

Former Labour MP and left-wing politician George Galloway has also appealed to Muslim voters in Rochdale by capitalising on their dissatisfaction with the party's Gaza stance.[26] On 29 February 2024, Galloway won the 2024 Rochdale by-election with 40% of the vote. During his victory speech, Galloway accused Starmer of enabling the "catastrophe" in Gaza.[27]

France

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86% of French Muslims supported Socialist Party candidate François Hollande in 2012.[2] The Muslim support for both Hollande and later Benoît Hamon alongside left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon is also in the majority with only 15% supporting right-wing candidates.[3] In the first round of the 2022 French presidential election, around 69% of French Muslims voted for Mélenchon.[28][29] Notably, Mélenchon was the only major presidential candidate to consistently denounce Islamophobia and discrimination against Muslims.[28]

Germany

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Among Muslims in Germany a 2016 study by the Experts Council on Immigration and Integration found that the majority of Turkish Germans were aligned with left-wing parties. The SPD had the backing of 41%, the CDU had 27%, the Greens 13%, The Left 13%, and others 7%. Among non-Turkish Muslims, support for the CDU/CSU was 40%, the Social Democrats 27%, the Greens 13%, the Left 9%, and others 9%.[30]

The Netherlands

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Muslims in the Netherlands tended to vote for the Labour Party[3] until recently. When three Muslim Members of Parliament quit the Labour Party in 2015 and founded the party Denk, the Labour Party saw a reduction on its support.[3]

Sweden

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In Sweden, around 70-75% of Swedish Muslims are estimated to support the Social Democrats, whilst 10-15% support other parties of the red–green alliance.[3]

Asia and Oceania

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India

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Indian Muslims tend to vote more frequently for the center-left Indian National Congress and its allies, with 43% of support as of 2019.[31] The biggest support came from Assam with 99% of Muslims voting for the INC, and the smallest from West Bengal where it was 15%.[31] Only 8% of Muslims voted for the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party in 2019, though it was 1% more than in the last election.[32][33]

Israel

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In Israel, most Arab parties are classified as left-leaning. Of the Joint List, the major coalition of Arab parties, its members are classified as left-wing; Balad, Hadash and Ta'al with former member United Arab List being described as big tent, with some socially conservative and Islamist factions. In 2015, The Joint List received 82% of Arab Israeli support[34] followed by social democratic Zionist Union with 22%[34] and Likud with 15%.[34]

Australia

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In Australia, Muslims tend to vote for the centre-left Labor Party.[35] Younger generations of Australian Muslims tend to also vote for the smaller left-wing parties, notable the Greens.[35][36]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b c Laitin, David. The European Left's Wary Embrace of Muslim Voters. immigrationlab.org. Archived from the original on 29 November 2020. Retrieved 22 November 2020.
  2. ^ a b c d e Laurence, Jonathan (2013). "Islam and Social Democrats: Integrating Europe's Muslim Minorities". Dissent Magazine. Archived from the original on 28 November 2020. Retrieved 22 November 2020.
  3. ^ a b c d e f Olsen, Henry (April 10, 2018). "How the Muslim Left is shaping the future of the western Left". Unheard. Archived from the original on December 1, 2020. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  4. ^ a b c d e Ozalp, Mehmet (27 October 2020). "Who will Muslim Americans vote for in the US elections?". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 26 November 2020. Retrieved 22 November 2020.
  5. ^ a b "Majority Of Muslims Voted For Biden, But Trump Got More Support Than He Did In 2016". NPR.org. 4 December 2020. Archived from the original on 2022-04-24. Retrieved 2022-04-23.
  6. ^ Burge, Ryan (2021-03-31). "The 2020 Vote for President by Religious Groups – Other Faith". Religion in Public. Archived from the original on 2022-02-15. Retrieved 2022-02-15.
  7. ^ "New poll reveals how much we presume about Muslim Americans' politics". Religion News Service. 2021-10-15. Archived from the original on 2022-02-15. Retrieved 2022-02-15.
  8. ^ Gabriel, Trip (June 3, 2022). "David McCormick Concedes to Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania GOP Senate Primary". The New York Times. Archived from the original on June 11, 2022. Retrieved March 3, 2024.
  9. ^ Lohn, Martiga (2006-09-14). "Islamic Convert Wins House Nomination". Washington Post. Associated Press. Archived from the original on 2020-12-19. Retrieved 2018-08-19.
  10. ^ Garsd, Jasmine (13 January 2013). "Rep. André Carson To Become First Muslim On House Committee On Intelligence". NPR. Archived from the original on 24 October 2022. Retrieved 3 March 2024.
  11. ^ Golden, Erin (November 7, 2018). "Ilhan Omar makes history, becoming first Somali-American elected to U.S. House". Star Tribune. Minneapolis, Minn. Archived from the original on February 2, 2019.
  12. ^ Herndon, Astead W. (August 8, 2018). "Rashida Tlaib, With Primary Win, Is Poised to Become First Muslim Woman in Congress". The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 5, 2018. Retrieved November 9, 2018.
  13. ^ a b Meyers, Elle (February 23, 2024). "Michigan Arab American and Muslim leaders urging community to vote against Joe Biden in primary". CBS News. Archived from the original on February 26, 2024. Retrieved February 26, 2024.
  14. ^ a b c d Jackson, Colin (February 23, 2024). "Arab Americans in Michigan see primary ballots as a tool for building political power". National Public Radio. Archived from the original on February 26, 2024. Retrieved February 26, 2024.
  15. ^ Herman, Alice; Laughland, Oliver (February 28, 2024). "Biden wins Michigan primary but sheds support over Gaza". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 2 March 2024. Retrieved March 3, 2024.
  16. ^ Marcetic, Branco (February 28, 2024). "Michigan's Primary Shows Biden Is Courting Political Suicide". The Jacobin. Archived from the original on March 3, 2024. Retrieved March 3, 2024.
  17. ^ Hendrickson, Clara; Warikoo, Niraj (February 28, 2024). "'Uncommitted' trounces Biden in Dearborn presidential primary". Detroit Free Press. Archived from the original on March 2, 2024. Retrieved March 3, 2024.
  18. ^ a b c Grener, Eric (April 29, 2016). "Liberals won over Muslims by huge margin in 2015, poll suggests". CBC News. Archived from the original on November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  19. ^ "Power of the Muslim vote and Muslim voting patterns" (PDF). mend.org.uk. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2020-11-11. Retrieved 2020-11-22.
  20. ^ Hussain, Musharraf. "British Muslims Can Swing the U.K. Election, But Only If They Get Out and Vote". Time. Archived from the original on 21 October 2020. Retrieved 22 November 2020.
  21. ^ Homa Khaleeli (7 May 2016). "Sadiq Khan's victory won't end Islamophobia, but it offers hope". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 4 February 2017.
  22. ^ "Humza Yousaf elected by MSPs as Scotland's new first minister". Sky News. Archived from the original on 29 March 2023. Retrieved 29 March 2023.
  23. ^ Adu, Aletha; Stacey, Kiran (15 November 2023). "Dozens of Labour MPs defy Keir Starmer to vote for ceasefire in Gaza". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 16 November 2023. Retrieved 26 February 2024.
  24. ^ a b c d Shackle, Samira (15 February 2024). "In a London borough home to many Muslims, Labour loses appeal over Gaza". Al Jazeera English. Archived from the original on 25 February 2024. Retrieved 26 February 2024.
  25. ^ a b "Labour acts on fears Muslims will not vote for party over Gaza stance". The Guardian. 30 January 2024. Archived from the original on 26 February 2024. Retrieved 26 February 2024.
  26. ^ a b c d e Philpot, Robert (17 February 2023). "UK's Labour faces Muslim bloc in revolt, anti-Israel challenger in special election". Times of Israel. Archived from the original on 26 February 2024. Retrieved 26 February 2024.
  27. ^ Halliday, Josh; Ahmed, Aneesa (1 March 2024). "'This is for Gaza': George Galloway sweeps to victory in Rochdale byelection". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 1 March 2024. Retrieved 3 March 2024.
  28. ^ a b Onishi, Norimitsu; Alami, Aida (2022-04-22). "For France's Muslims, a Choice Between Lesser Evils in Presidential Vote". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on 2022-04-24. Retrieved 2022-04-24.
  29. ^ "Le port du voile, sujet qui divise la France et les deux finalistes de la présidentielle". VOA (in French). April 15, 2022. Archived from the original on 2022-05-10. Retrieved 2022-05-10.
  30. ^ Topcu, Canan. "Calling all Muslim voters: "Won′t vote" won′t wash". Qantara. Archived from the original on 29 November 2020. Retrieved 22 November 2020.
  31. ^ a b Ahmed, Hilal (24 April 2019). "BJP is emerging as second-most preferred political choice for Muslim voters in India". The Print. Retrieved 20 December 2020.
  32. ^ Kumar, Sanjay; Gupta, Pranav (3 June 2019). "Where did the BJP get its votes from in 2019?". Mint. Archived from the original on 17 December 2020. Retrieved 20 December 2020.
  33. ^ Kumar, Sanjay (30 May 2014). "Who did India's Muslims vote for in general election?". BBC News. Archived from the original on 21 November 2020. Retrieved 20 December 2020.
  34. ^ a b c Ben Solomon, Ariel (24 March 2015). "Arab sector turnout for recent elections reached 63.5%, polling data shows". Jerusalem Post. Archived from the original on 6 July 2020. Retrieved 26 February 2024.
  35. ^ a b Political Participation of Muslims in Australia Archived 2023-01-26 at the Wayback Machine. Centre for Research on Social Inclusion Macquarie University. June 2010. p.47. Retrieved 2022-06-24
  36. ^ Rachwani, Mostafa (2022-05-18). "'Taken for granted': western Sydney's Muslim community rethinks a fractured Labor relationship". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 2022-06-24. Retrieved 2022-06-24.
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