2024 United States presidential election in Michigan
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| Elections in Michigan |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Michigan is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Michigan voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[2] Michigan is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.[3]
An Upper Midwestern state at the heart of the Rust Belt, no Republican presidential candidate has won Michigan with a majority since George H. W. Bush in 1988, and the last Republican to win by double digits was Ronald Reagan in his 49-state landslide four years earlier. The state was formerly part of the Blue Wall, having voted Democratic in every presidential election between 1992 and 2012, but only doing so by a double-digit margin in 1996 and 2008. Then, in 2016, Republican Donald Trump carried Michigan by a very narrow 0.23% in an unexpected sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt which earned him a presidential victory, only to have the state flipped back into the Democratic column by Joe Biden four years later with a 2.78% margin of victory as the former lost the presidency to the latter. However, it was the worst margin for a victorious Democrat dating back to the 2.01% margin of victory for John F. Kennedy in the state in the extremely close 1960 election.
Michigan is purple to slightly blue, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019. Due to the state's nearly even partisan lean and the close margin by which it was decided in 2016 and 2020, this race is considered to be a tossup, although recent polls conducted in the state have shown to be narrowly favoring Kamala Harris.
On April 18, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was nominated by Michigan's Natural Law Party.[4] Jill Stein from the Green party has ballot access.[citation needed]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]Incumbent United States President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary race, held on February 27, 2024.[5]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 625,221 | 81.1% | 115 | 115 | |
| Uncommitted | 101,623 | 13.2% | 2 | 2 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 22,865 | 3.0% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 20,684 | 2.7% | |||
| Write-in votes | 178 | <0.1% | |||
| Total: | 770,571 | 100% | 117 | 23 | 140 |
Republican primary
[edit]Former United States President Donald Trump won the Republican primary race, held on February 27, 2024.[5]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 761,163 | 68.12% | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| Nikki Haley | 297,124 | 26.59% | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Uncommitted | 33,649 | 3.01% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 13,456 | 1.20% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 4,794 | 0.43% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 3,702 | 0.33% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley | 2,348 | 0.21% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 1,077 | 0.10% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 1,117,313 | 100.00% | 16 | 0 | 16 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[9] | Tossup | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[10] | Tossup | March 14, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Tossup | July 3, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Tossup | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[13] | Tilt D | August 18, 2024 |
| CNN[14] | Tossup | August 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[15] | Tossup | August 15 2024 |
| 538[16] | Tossup | July 18, 2024 |
| RCP[17] | Tossup | August 15, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | July 10 – August 17, 2024 | August 21, 2024 | 48.6% | 46.6% | 4.8% | Harris +2.0 |
| 270ToWin | August 10–17, 2024 | August 21, 2024 | 47.8% | 46.0% | 6.2% | Harris +1.8 |
| Average | 48.2% | 46.3% | 5.5% | Harris +1.9 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[18][A] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,093 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Focaldata[19] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 47% | – |
| The Bullfinch Group[B] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[C] | August 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | August 6–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[20] | August 5–8, 2024 | 619 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| 619 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 46% | 5% | ||
| Navigator Research (D)[21] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[22] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 406 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | 6% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[23][D] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[24] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 42% | 4% |
| SoCal Research[25][E] | July 25–26, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Fox News[26] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Emerson College[27] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[28][F] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[29] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[30] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 616 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | 6% | ||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[31][A] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,093 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 4% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Focaldata[32] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 44% | 4% | – | 1% | 0% | – |
| 702 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 44% | 4% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% | ||
| 702 (A) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 42% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[33] | August 12–15, 2024 | 530 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| The Bullfinch Group[B] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 1% | – | 5% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[C] | August 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[34] | August 5–8, 2024 | 619 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 6% |
| 619 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 43% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | ||
| Navigator Research (D)[35] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[36] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 406 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[37] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 771 (LV) | – | 41% | 42% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[24] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | 5% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Fox News[26] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[38] | July 22–24, 2024 | 512 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 7% | – | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| Glengariff Group[39][G] | July 22–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 41% | 10% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Emerson College[27] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[40][H] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 7% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs[41][I] | July 13–16, 2024 | 532 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 46% | 46% | 5% | 3% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[40][H] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| EPIC-MRA[42] | July 13–17, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| Emerson College[43][J] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Marketing Resource Group[44] | July 11–13, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 39% | 25%[e] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[28][F] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[45][K] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[46] | July 1–5, 2024 | 694 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College[47][J] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 12% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[48] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| EPIC-MRA[49] | June 21–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College[50] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||
| Mitchell Research[51][L] | June 3, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[52] | May 30–31, 2024 | 723 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| 636 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 46% | 7% | ||
| Mitchell Research[53][L] | May 20–21, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| KAConsulting (R)[54][M] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Prime Group[55][N] | May 9–16, 2024 | 482 (RV) | – | 52% | 48% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[29] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[56] | May 6–13, 2024 | 606 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| New York Times/Siena College[57] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| 616 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% | ||
| Emerson College[58] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48%[d] | 52% | – | ||
| CBS News/YouGov[59] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,262 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 49% | – |
| Fox News[60] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[61] | April 8–15, 2024 | 708 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Marketing Resource Group[62] | April 8–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 42% | 22%[e] |
| The Bullfinch Group[63] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Spry Strategies[64] | March 25–28, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Wall Street Journal[65] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Echelon Insights[66][O] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| Emerson College[67] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50%[d] | 50% | – | ||
| CNN/SSRS[68] | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,097 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| Mitchell Research[69][L] | March 15–16, 2024 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[70] | March 8–12, 2024 | 1,487 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[71] | March 8–12, 2024 | 698 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| North Star Opinion Research[72][P] | February 22–25, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 13% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[73] | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Emerson College[74] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| EPIC-MRA[75] | February 13–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Fox News[76] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[77] | January 16–21, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 47% | 7% |
| Target Insyght[78] | January 4–10, 2024 | 800 (RV) | – | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Glengariff Group[79][G] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 47% | 14% |
| John Zogby Strategies[80] | January 2–4, 2024 | 602 (LV) | – | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| CNN/SSRS[81] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[82] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| EPIC-MRA[83] | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[84] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Emerson College[85] | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| New York Times/Siena College[30] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[86] | October 5–10, 2023 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[87] | October 7–9, 2023 | 820 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 17% |
| Marketing Resource Group[88] | October 2–8, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 42% | 22% |
| Emerson College[89] | October 1–4, 2023 | 468 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 43% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[90][Q] | September 26–27, 2023 | 679 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[91] | September 7–12, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| EPIC-MRA[92] | August 6–11, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Emerson College[93] | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 44% | 13% |
| Mitchell Research[94][L] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | 13% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[95][R] | Jul 8–10, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 45% | 44% | 9% |
| Prime Group[96][S] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
| 500 (RV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17%[f] | ||
| EPIC-MRA[97] | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[98][R] | April 17–19, 2023 | 500 (V) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 42% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[99][T] | December 6–7, 2022 | 763 (V) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
| EPIC-MRA[100] | November 30 – December 6, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Emerson College[101] | October 28–31, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College[102] | October 12–14, 2022 | 580 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| EPIC-MRA[103] | September 15–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[104] | August 15–16, 2022 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 19% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[105] | February 1–4, 2022 | 632 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | 40% | 22% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[106][U] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[107] | July 15–17, 2024 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| EPIC-MRA[42] | July 13–17, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 43% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 9% |
| Emerson College[43][J] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[45][K] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 44% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 5%[g] |
| YouGov[108][V] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[46] | July 1–5, 2024 | 694 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 39% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 7%[g] |
| EPIC-MRA[49] | June 21–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 42% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| Emerson College[50] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Mitchell Research[51][L] | June 3, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Mitchell Research[53][L] | May 20–21, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| KAConsulting (R)[54][M] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 41% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 7%[h] |
| Prime Group[55][N] | May 9–16, 2024 | 482 (RV) | – | 44% | 42% | 10% | 2% | 2% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[29] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 8% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[56] | May 6–13, 2024 | 606 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[57] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 16%[h] |
| 616 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 39% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 11%[h] | ||
| Emerson College[58] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Fox News[60] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[61] | April 8–15, 2024 | 708 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Marketing Resource Group[62] | April 8–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
| Wall Street Journal[65] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 39% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College[67] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Mitchell Research[69][L] | March 15–16, 2024 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University[70] | March 8–12, 2024 | 1,487 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 36% | 41% | 10% | 3% | 4% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[71] | March 8–12, 2024 | 698 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[73] | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Emerson College[74] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Fox News[76] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[109] | January 16–21, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[110] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs[41][I] | July 13–16, 2024 | 532 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 43% | 46% | 5% | 6% |
| 1983 Labs[111] | June 28–30, 2024 | 563 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | 45% | 5% | 9%[g] |
| P2 Insights[112][W] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 43% | 8% | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[52] | May 30–31, 2024 | 723 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 39% | 11% | 9% |
| 636 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 43% | 8% | 5% | ||
| Spry Strategies[64] | March 25–28, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 43% | 9% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[113] | March 14–17, 2024 | 616 (LV) | – | 39% | 41% | 6% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[114] | December 28–30, 2023 | 832 (LV) | – | 37% | 39% | 9% | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[115] | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 38% | 39% | 9% | 13% |
| New York Times/Siena College[116] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 34% | 26% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[87] | October 7–9, 2023 | 820 (LV) | – | 38% | 40% | 7% | 15% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[40][H] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 45% | 5% | 3% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[117] | May 2–4, 2024 | 650 (LV) | – | 37% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 12% |
| CBS News/YouGov[59] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,262 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 43% | 9% | 3% | 0% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS[68] | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,097 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 34% | 40% | 18% | 4% | 4% |
| CNN/SSRS[81] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 39% | 20% | 6% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[118] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 37% | 10% | 2% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[93] | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 41% | 43% | 4% | 11% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[28][F] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Glengariff Group[79][G] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[26] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 46% | 2% |
| Glengariff Group[39][G] | July 22–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[28][F] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 52% | 45% | 3% |
| Emerson College/The Hill[119] | Mar 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Glengariff Group[79][G] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Marketing Resource Group[88] | October 2–8, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[40][H] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 3% |
JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
JB Pritzker Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[28][F] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 39% | 45% | 16% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[26] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[28][F] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[28][F] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[120] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Glengariff Group[79][G] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
| CNN/SSRS[81] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 50% | 12% |
| EPIC-MRA[83] | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 47% | 17% |
| New York Times/Siena College[121] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 36% | 46% | 18% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[120] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 26% | 23% | 3% | 3% | 33% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[115] | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 37% | 25% | 18% | 20% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS[122] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[121] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[91] | September 7–12, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Mitchell Research[94][L] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[95][R] | July 8–10, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 44% | 46% | 7% |
| EPIC-MRA[97] | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[98][R] | April 17–19, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[115] | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 39% | 30% | 13% | 2% | 15% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Michigan
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Kennedy claims residency in New York, but he was removed from the ballot in that state for using a “sham” address[1]
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c d With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 14%
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ a b c Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ a b c Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b Poll conducted for The Independent Center
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- ^ Poll sponsored by Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b c d e f g Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c d e f Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
- ^ a b Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- ^ a b c d e f g h Poll commissioned by MIRS
- ^ a b Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
- ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by Citizens Awareness Project
- ^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, a sponsor for the Democratic Party
- ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
References
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- ^ a b "Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University" (PDF).
- ^ a b "Mitchell Research" (PDF).
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