2008 United States presidential election in Idaho
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| Elections in Idaho |
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The 2008 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose four representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Idaho was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 25.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 major news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or a red state. Polling in the state gave a sizable lead to McCain over Democrat Barack Obama, with most polling predicting a McCain win of at least 30 percentage points. Despite his landslide defeat in the state, Obama over-performed his polls and greatly improved on Kerry's performance four years earlier. Idaho has not gone Democratic since Lyndon B. Johnson narrowly won it in 1964.
Primaries
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Predictions
[edit]There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report[1] | Likely R |
| Cook Political Report[2] | Solid R |
| The Takeaway[3] | Solid R |
| Electoral-vote.com[4] | Solid R |
| Washington Post[5] | Solid R |
| Politico[6] | Solid R |
| RealClearPolitics[7] | Solid R |
| FiveThirtyEight[5] | Solid R |
| CQ Politics[8] | Solid R |
| The New York Times[9] | Solid R |
| CNN[10] | Safe R |
| NPR[5] | Solid R |
| MSNBC[5] | Solid R |
| Fox News[11] | Likely R |
| Associated Press[12] | Likely R |
| Rasmussen Reports[13] | Safe R |
Polling
[edit]McCain won every pre-election poll with a double-digit margin and with at least 52 percent of the vote. The final three poll average gave the Republican 66 percent to Obama's 29 percent.[14]
Fundraising
[edit]Obama raised $874,523. McCain raised $441,338.[15]
Advertising and visits
[edit]Obama spent $268. McCain spent $434.[16] Neither campaign visited the state.[17]
Analysis
[edit]With a substantial Mormon population, Idaho is one of the most reliably GOP bastions in the country. Although Barack Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate since Michael Dukakis in 1988 to eclipse 35 percent of the vote in solidly red state Idaho,[18] the state was still won handily by John McCain by a margin of approximately 25.34 percent. McCain carried 41 of the state's 44 counties, with Obama winning Blaine County, home to Sun Valley and several other prime ski resorts; Latah County, home to the college town of Moscow, and Teton County, a highly affluent suburb of Teton County, Wyoming, and the last until Joe Biden won it in 2020 United States presidential election in Idaho. Obama was the first Democrat to carry Teton County since Harry S. Truman in 1948.[19][20] He also narrowed the Republican margins of victory in Ada County, and in the state capital and city of Boise to single digits. McCain's victory in Idaho, however, was less than that of George W. Bush who carried the state with 68.38 percent of the vote in 2004, a 12.78-point swing to the Democrats in Idaho.
With 61.21 percent of the popular vote, Idaho proved to be McCain's fourth strongest state in 2008 election after Oklahoma, Wyoming and Utah.[21]
Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Nez Perce County since Grover Cleveland in 1892.
During the same election, Republicans held onto the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Republican Larry Craig who reluctantly retired after it was revealed that he had solicited a man for sex in the men's restroom at an airport in Minneapolis. Former Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch, a Republican, was elected with 57.65% of the vote over Democrat Larry LaRocco who received 34.11%. A pro-life independent candidate received 5.35 point while Libertarian Kent Marmon received 1.54% and Rex Rammell, a far right-wing candidate who also ran as an Independent, received 1.34%.
At the state level, Republicans expanded their supermajority status in the Idaho state legislature as they picked up one seat in the Idaho House of Representatives.
Results
[edit]| 2008 United States presidential election in Idaho[22] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | John McCain | Sarah Palin | 403,012 | 61.21% | 4 | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama | Joe Biden | 236,440 | 35.91% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Matt Gonzalez | 7,175 | 1.09% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Chuck Baldwin | Darrell Castle | 4,747 | 0.72% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Bob Barr | Wayne Allyn Root | 3,658 | 0.56% | 0 | |
| Write-ins | Write-ins | 3,340[a] | 0.51% | 0 | ||
| American Independent (Write-in) | Alan Keyes (Write-in) | Brian Rohrbough | 40[b] | 0.01% | 0 | |
| Green (Write-in) | Cynthia McKinney (Write-in) | Rosa Clemente | 39[b] | 0.01% | 0 | |
| Socialist (Write-in) | Brian Moore (Write-in) | Stewart Alexander | 3[b] | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Totals | 658,454 | 100.00% | 4 | |||
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 60.1% | |||||
Results by county
[edit]| County | John McCain Republican |
Barack Obama Democratic |
Ralph Nader[23] Independent |
Charles Baldwin[23] Constitution |
Bob Barr[23] Libertarian |
Margin | Total | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Ada | 93,328 | 51.63% | 82,236 | 45.49% | 1,978 | 1.09% | 777 | 0.43% | 1,083 | 0.60% | 11,092 | 6.14% | 180,760 |
| Adams | 1,517 | 65.39% | 728 | 31.38% | 36 | 1.55% | 20 | 0.86% | 19 | 0.82% | 789 | 34.01% | 2,320 |
| Bannock | 19,356 | 54.62% | 14,792 | 41.74% | 485 | 1.37% | 257 | 0.73% | 215 | 0.61% | 4,564 | 12.88% | 35,437 |
| Bear Lake | 2,377 | 80.77% | 502 | 17.06% | 26 | 0.88% | 27 | 0.92% | 11 | 0.37% | 1,875 | 63.71% | 2,943 |
| Benewah | 2,646 | 63.54% | 1,407 | 33.79% | 48 | 1.15% | 38 | 0.91% | 25 | 0.60% | 1,239 | 29.75% | 4,164 |
| Bingham | 12,230 | 71.29% | 4,424 | 25.79% | 207 | 1.21% | 203 | 1.18% | 91 | 0.53% | 7,806 | 45.50% | 17,156 |
| Blaine | 3,439 | 32.53% | 6,947 | 65.71% | 106 | 1.00% | 16 | 0.15% | 63 | 0.60% | -3,508 | -33.18% | 10,573 |
| Boise | 2,433 | 64.48% | 1,240 | 32.87% | 48 | 1.27% | 25 | 0.66% | 27 | 0.72% | 1,193 | 31.61% | 3,773 |
| Bonner | 11,145 | 57.01% | 7,840 | 40.10% | 259 | 1.32% | 195 | 1.00% | 108 | 0.55% | 3,305 | 16.91% | 19,550 |
| Bonneville | 29,334 | 70.34% | 11,417 | 27.38% | 334 | 0.80% | 362 | 0.87% | 256 | 0.61% | 17,917 | 42.96% | 41,703 |
| Boundary | 3,078 | 65.02% | 1,484 | 31.35% | 67 | 1.42% | 77 | 1.63% | 27 | 0.57% | 1,594 | 33.67% | 4,734 |
| Butte | 1,056 | 75.11% | 318 | 22.62% | 18 | 1.28% | 7 | 0.50% | 7 | 0.50% | 738 | 52.49% | 1,406 |
| Camas | 422 | 68.28% | 187 | 30.26% | 5 | 0.81% | 1 | 0.16% | 3 | 0.49% | 235 | 38.02% | 618 |
| Canyon | 42,752 | 66.07% | 20,147 | 31.14% | 639 | 0.99% | 387 | 0.60% | 321 | 0.50% | 22,605 | 34.93% | 64,706 |
| Caribou | 2,656 | 80.44% | 553 | 16.75% | 56 | 1.70% | 23 | 0.70% | 14 | 0.42% | 2,103 | 63.69% | 3,302 |
| Cassia | 6,309 | 79.93% | 1,332 | 16.88% | 86 | 1.09% | 72 | 0.91% | 43 | 0.54% | 4,977 | 63.05% | 7,893 |
| Clark | 305 | 81.33% | 64 | 17.07% | 2 | 0.53% | 3 | 0.80% | 1 | 0.27% | 241 | 64.26% | 375 |
| Clearwater | 2,569 | 65.77% | 1,211 | 31.00% | 60 | 1.54% | 35 | 0.90% | 31 | 0.79% | 1,358 | 34.77% | 3,906 |
| Custer | 1,694 | 71.99% | 611 | 25.97% | 18 | 0.76% | 17 | 0.72% | 12 | 0.51% | 1,083 | 46.02% | 2,353 |
| Elmore | 5,665 | 66.76% | 2,591 | 30.53% | 110 | 1.30% | 37 | 0.44% | 33 | 0.39% | 3,074 | 36.23% | 8,486 |
| Franklin | 4,246 | 83.68% | 600 | 11.82% | 48 | 0.95% | 142 | 2.80% | 37 | 0.73% | 3,646 | 71.86% | 5,074 |
| Fremont | 4,700 | 79.92% | 1,065 | 18.11% | 46 | 0.78% | 44 | 0.75% | 25 | 0.43% | 3,635 | 61.81% | 5,881 |
| Gem | 5,585 | 70.27% | 2,166 | 27.25% | 112 | 1.41% | 52 | 0.65% | 32 | 0.40% | 3,419 | 43.02% | 7,948 |
| Gooding | 3,765 | 69.84% | 1,489 | 27.62% | 75 | 1.39% | 35 | 0.65% | 27 | 0.50% | 2,276 | 42.22% | 5,391 |
| Idaho | 5,895 | 71.79% | 2,017 | 24.56% | 77 | 0.94% | 167 | 2.03% | 54 | 0.66% | 3,878 | 47.23% | 8,212 |
| Jefferson | 8,540 | 81.79% | 1,641 | 15.72% | 72 | 0.69% | 138 | 1.32% | 50 | 0.48% | 6,899 | 66.07% | 10,441 |
| Jerome | 4,897 | 71.52% | 1,794 | 26.20% | 74 | 1.08% | 36 | 0.53% | 46 | 0.67% | 3,103 | 45.32% | 6,847 |
| Kootenai | 38,387 | 61.38% | 22,120 | 35.37% | 592 | 0.95% | 565 | 0.90% | 268 | 0.43% | 16,267 | 26.01% | 62,535 |
| Latah | 7,988 | 44.59% | 9,195 | 51.32% | 199 | 1.11% | 204 | 1.14% | 128 | 0.71% | -1,207 | -6.73% | 17,916 |
| Lemhi | 2,938 | 71.57% | 1,061 | 25.85% | 29 | 0.71% | 45 | 1.10% | 32 | 0.78% | 1,877 | 45.72% | 4,105 |
| Lewis | 1,275 | 70.68% | 479 | 26.55% | 20 | 1.11% | 23 | 1.27% | 7 | 0.39% | 796 | 44.13% | 1,804 |
| Lincoln | 1,232 | 65.88% | 545 | 29.14% | 77 | 4.12% | 10 | 0.53% | 6 | 0.32% | 687 | 36.74% | 1,870 |
| Madison | 11,131 | 85.24% | 1,627 | 12.46% | 81 | 0.62% | 149 | 1.14% | 69 | 0.53% | 9,504 | 72.78% | 13,058 |
| Minidoka | 5,087 | 73.83% | 1,630 | 23.66% | 79 | 1.15% | 52 | 0.75% | 42 | 0.61% | 3,457 | 50.17% | 6,890 |
| Nez Perce | 10,357 | 58.11% | 7,123 | 39.97% | 189 | 1.06% | 82 | 0.46% | 72 | 0.40% | 3,234 | 18.14% | 17,823 |
| Oneida | 1,724 | 79.74% | 381 | 17.62% | 11 | 0.51% | 27 | 1.25% | 19 | 0.88% | 1,343 | 62.12% | 2,162 |
| Owyhee | 3,024 | 74.52% | 944 | 23.26% | 37 | 0.91% | 29 | 0.71% | 24 | 0.59% | 2,080 | 51.26% | 4,058 |
| Payette | 5,988 | 68.88% | 2,415 | 27.78% | 105 | 1.21% | 66 | 0.76% | 39 | 0.45% | 3,573 | 41.10% | 8,693 |
| Power | 1,754 | 61.72% | 1,027 | 36.14% | 28 | 0.99% | 13 | 0.46% | 20 | 0.70% | 727 | 25.58% | 2,842 |
| Shoshone | 2,953 | 52.11% | 2,521 | 44.49% | 111 | 1.96% | 42 | 0.74% | 39 | 0.69% | 432 | 7.62% | 5,667 |
| Teton | 2,263 | 48.57% | 2,302 | 49.41% | 61 | 1.31% | 13 | 0.28% | 19 | 0.41% | -39 | -0.84% | 4,659 |
| Twin Falls | 19,032 | 66.52% | 8,621 | 30.13% | 358 | 1.25% | 181 | 0.63% | 152 | 0.53% | 10,411 | 36.39% | 28,613 |
| Valley | 2,772 | 52.33% | 2,405 | 45.40% | 65 | 1.23% | 21 | 0.40% | 33 | 0.62% | 367 | 6.93% | 5,297 |
| Washington | 3,168 | 70.31% | 1,241 | 27.54% | 41 | 0.91% | 28 | 0.62% | 28 | 0.62% | 1,927 | 42.77% | 4,506 |
| Totals | 403,012 | 61.21% | 236,440 | 35.91% | 7,175 | 1.09% | 4,747 | 0.72% | 3,658 | 0.56% | 166,572 | 25.30% | 658,454 |
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]By congressional district
[edit]John McCain solidly swept both Idaho's congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.
| District | McCain | Obama | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 61.82% | 35.88% | Bill Sali (110th Congress) |
| Walt Minnick (111th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 61.19% | 36.34% | Mike Simpson |
Electors
[edit]Technically the voters of Idaho cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Idaho is allocated four electors because it has two congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of four electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins a plurality of votes in the state is awarded all four electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All four were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[25]
- Darlene Bramon
- Ben Doty
- John Erickson
- Melinda Smyser
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
- ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
- ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
- ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
- ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ Election 2008 Polls – Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
- ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 20, 2009.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending – Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits – Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ 1988 Presidential General Election Results – Idaho
- ^ The Political Graveyard; Teton County, Idaho
- ^ "Idaho Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020.
- ^ "2008 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
- ^ "Atlas of U.S. Presidential Election Results 2008 – Idaho". Retrieved January 12, 2013.
- ^ a b c d e Our Campaigns; ID US President Race, November 04, 2008
- ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
- ^ U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election – Certificates
