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2024 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) leadership election

2024 Liberal Democratic Party leadership election
← 2021No later than
30 September 2024[1]
Incumbent President

Fumio Kishida



The 2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will be held in September 2024 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan for a 3-year term. The winner of the election will effectively become the Prime Minister of Japan and will lead the party in the next general election (if it takes place after the leadership election) and the next House of Councillors election in July 2025.

The leadership election will take place amidst the LDP's controversy over its affiliation with the Unification Church new religious movement following Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022, an ongoing slush fund scandal involving the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions, and other issues which has led to incumbent president Fumio Kishida becoming the most unpopular prime minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012.[2][3][4]

Background

[edit]
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reshuffled his second cabinet in 2023 to include more women and keep potential political rivals in key roles.

Following the resignation of party president and prime minister Yoshihude Suga, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida was elected President of the LDP in 2021, defeating Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform minister Taro Kono in a second round runoff, becoming the prime minister on 4 October 2021.[5]

Assassination of Shinzo Abe and ties to the Unification Church

[edit]
Main article: Assassination of Shinzo Abe
Further information: Unification Church § In Japan (1970-2023)

Following Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022, the Unification Church (UC) new religious movement was shown to have significant political influence in the LDP, and the popularity for the party, as well as Kishida's approval rating decreased.[6] Kishida reshuffled his cabinet on 10 August 2022 in an effort to remove cabinet ministers associated with the UC in order to regain public trust in his government.[6][7]

Kishida reshuffled his cabinet once again on 13 September 2023 as his premiership continued to lose public support. The reshuffle was highlighted for its comparatively high proportion of women in official roles and the inclusion of members of opposing factions in high-ranking roles such as Taro Kono and Toshimitsu Motegi.[8]

Slush fund scandal

[edit]
Main article: 2023–2024 Japanese slush fund scandal

In November 2023, it was discovered that members of the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions failed to report over JP¥600 million (US$4.06 million) in campaign funds, which they had instead placed in unlawful slush funds. This led to a scandal concerning the misuse of campaign funds by these members.[9][10]

Amidst the escalating scandal, Kishida declared on 13 December 2023 that he was dismissing Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ichiro Miyashita. Hiroyuki Miyazawa, the deputy minister of defense, was also removed from office. All the expelled officials belonged to the Seiwakai faction.[11][12][13] The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a vote of no confidence against Matsuno and the entire Kishida's cabinet as a result of the scandal.[14][15] Although both motions failed due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet, it was the closest no confidence vote in decades due to the rare unity between Japan's opposition parties in voting in favor of the vote.[16]

The first arrests took place on 7 January 2024, with former deputy minister of education Yoshitaki Ikeda and Kazuhiro Kakinuma, his assistant, being accused of concealing ¥48 million that the Seiwakai earned between 2018 and 2022. The National Police Agency justified their arrest by claiming that there was a chance of evidence destruction. Ikeda was expelled from the LDP after details of the arrests were made public.[17]

On 7 December 2023, Kishida announced his resignation as leader of the moderate Kōchikai faction, which he led since 2012 and announced he will leave the faction due to the scandal. A month later on January 2024, Kōchikai, along with Seiwakai and Shisuikai were dissolved, leaving Motegi's Heisei Kenkyūkai and Tarō Asō's Shikōkai as the only remaining factions left in the party.[18][19]

Kishida Cabinet approval ratings since 2021.

Continued unpopularity and calls for resignation

[edit]

Kishida's approval ratings continued to fall in the aftermath of the scandal, dropping to 23% on 13 December 2023, marking the lowest rating for any Prime Minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012. By 22 December, his approval ratings had further decreased to 17%. According to a Mainichi Shimbun poll conducted on 18 December 2023, 79% of respondents disapprove of Kishida's performance as Prime Minister, the highest disapproval rate since the end of World War II.[20][11][21]

Concerns emerged about Kishida's ability to lead the party to victory in the upcoming general election, with the scandal leading to speculations that the LDP could potentially lose power in favor of a CDP-led coalition.[22] Ex-Seiwakai member and House of Representatives member Takatori Shuichi said that he does not believe the party can maintain a majority in the National Diet if Kishida is reelected as party president, while Kishida's predecessor Suga on 23 June called for the resignation of Kishida, stating that the party would lose power if "things continue like this".[23][24] Mainichi Shimbun reports that the party could split between pro-Kishida and anti-Kishida forces ahead of the election, with some supporting Suga's criticism of Kishida.[25]

Campaign

[edit]

Prelude

[edit]
Fumio Kishida and Taro Kono in June 2024.

Sanae Takaichi on 18 June 2024 announced that she will be publishing a book on economic security titled "Japan's Economic Security" (日本の経済安全保障), to be published on 8th July, the second anniversary of Shinzo Abe's assassination. There are views within the party that the book is an early campaign manifesto for her presidential run.[26] On 30 June The Asahi Shimbun reported that Sanae Takaichi had decided to run for the presidential election.[27] She denied this in a post on Twitter, and later declined to comment on 2 July.[28]

On 26 June, Taro Kono, who made it to the second round in 2021, conveyed his desire to run for the presidency to LDP Vice President and his faction boss Taro Aso, during dinner.[29] Governor of Gunma Ichita Yamamoto announced his intentions to endorse Kono in a press conference the following day.[30]

Shigeru Ishiba on 28 June informed his political allies of his intentions to run for the presidency and has begun making "concrete arrangements".[31] He indicated on 11 July that he would make a decision by August.[32] Later on 21 July Ishiba said he would decide around the Obon holiday period (August 13-16).[33] Two days later he said that were he to run, he would campaign on deleting the second paragraph of Article 9 in the Japanese Constitution renouncing Japan's right to wage war.[34]

Fumio Kishida and Shinjiro Koizumi in May 2024.

Prime Minister Kishida began a nationwide tour on 29 June, first visiting Yamanashi Prefecture, which has political ties to his former faction, Kōchikai.[35][36] Media outlets analyzed the tour as a campaign tour for the presidential election.[37]

On 2 July the Yukan Fuji reported that Shinjirō Koizumi may be preparing to run for LDP president, with a goal of making it to the second round runoff.[38] While visiting Fukushima Prefecture for a surfing competition, Koizumi said he was "carefully considering" a run for the party presidency.[39] Diet Member Naoki Furukawa [ja] suggested Kishida be replaced by Koizumi on 12 July.[40]

LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi visited Fumio Kishida's home prefecture of Hiroshima on 6 July.[41] Motegei later said on 22 July that he would not be the first candidate to formally declare his intention to run, in order to avoid becoming the "Reiwa-era Nobuteru Ishihara" who ran in the 2012 election.[42] On the same day, he stated he would make a decision by early September.[43] Motegi will embark on a trip to Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines on 28 July in an effort to boost his profile.[44]

Jiji reported on 21 July that the LDP would establish an election committee for the presidential election on July 26. The 11-person committee is headed by Diet Member Ichiro Aisawa, and will most likely determine the election date to be between September 20 to 30, with the two most likely dates being the 20th and 27th.[45][46]

On 24 July Seiko Noda met with policy chief Tokai Kisaburo, Diet Affairs Chair Hamada Yasukazu (both of whom endorsed her campaign in 2021) and others to discuss her potential candidacy.[47]

Candidates

[edit]

Decision pending

[edit]

Publicly expressed interest

[edit]

Potential candidates

[edit]

Based on opinion polls[58][59][60][61][62]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Endorsements of Fumio Kishida[a]
Members of the National Diet
  • Yoshimasa Hayashi (Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2023–present; Minister for Foreign Affairs, 2021–2023; Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, 2017–2018; Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, 2012–2014; Member of the House of Representatives, 2021–present; Member of the House of Councillors, 1995–2021)[66]
  • Seiji Kihara (Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, 2023; Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2021-2023; Member of the House of Representatives, 2009–present)[67]
Endorsements of Taro Kono[a]
Prefectural politicians
Endorsements of Shinjiro Koizumi[a]
Members of the National Diet

Opinion polls

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the next Japanese general election § Before LDP leadership election.[edit]
LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 LDP leadership election with a 7-day average.
Fieldwork datePolling firmSample size[vague]Shigeru IshibaShinjirō KoizumiTaro KonoSanae TakaichiYoshihide SugaYōko KamikawaFumio KishidaSeiko NodaToshimitsu MotegiOthersNOT/

UD/NA

26–28 Jul 2024Nikkei/TV Tokyo792241558566214[b]24
20–21 Jul 2024Sankei/FNN1,03324.712.17.07.55.44.84.11.40.91.7[c]30.4[d]
20–21 Jul 2024Kyodo News1,03528.412.7910.4–8.27.51.12.52.5[e]17.7
20–21 Jul 2024SSRC2,044171247756––9[f]33
19–21 Jul 2024Yomiuri/NNN1,031251586646212[g]25[h]
13–14 Jul 2024ANN1,012271866464212[i]24
6–7 Jul 2024JNN1,0212416.69.35.85.84.92.71.40.93.1[j]25.5
22–23 Jun 2024SSRC2,043181155755––9[k]35
22–23 Jun 2024Mainichi1,05720759685–1–39
22–23 Jun 2024Kyodo News1,05626.212.17.86.8–7.86.62.42.42.8[l]25.1
21–23 Jun 2024Yomiuri/NNN1,023231567866313[m]22[n]
15–16 Jun 2024Gunosy for Senkyo Dot Com1,00013.65.86.56.7–3.33.2–0.46.6[o]53.9
15–16 Jun 2024JX for Senkyo Dot Com98423.29.94.88.5–8.67.8–0.910.4[p]25.9
15–16 Jun 2024Sankei/FNN1,01316.414.68.46.35.85.64.30.90.42[q]35.3[r]
15–16 Jun 2024ANN1,02623188657331125
18–19 May 2024ANN1,04523187659411125
17–19 May 2024Yomiuri/NNN1,0332216107674124[s]21[t]
4–5 May 2024JNN1,01324.214.18.46.177.84.51.80.310.5[u]15.3
13–14 Apr 2024ANN1,037211886595211[v]24
22–24 Mar 2024Yomiuri/NNN1,020221585697113[w]23[x]
16–17 Mar 2024ANN1,0312218965114211[y]21
16–17 Mar 2024SSRC2,044171166683––8[z]35
8–11 Mar 2024Jiji Press1,16018.612.16.44.75.75.92.30.90.42.6[aa]40.4
9–10 Mar 2024Kyodo News1,04322.215.47.98.3–10.84.91.80.93.3[ab]24.5
24–25 Feb 2024ANN1,0342317964112311[ac]34
17–18 Feb 2024SSRC2,0431710767103––7[ad]33
17–18 Feb 2024Mainichi1,02425979–12121–34
16–18 Feb 2024Yomiuri/NNN1,0832117106484222[ae]12
26–28 Jan 2024Nikkei/TV Tokyo9692215107753226[af]17
8–11 Dec 2023Jiji Press2,00015168.856.23.11.6––140.3
18–19 Nov 2023Asahi1,0861516138––7–11[ag]36
11–12 Nov 2023Sankei Shimbun/FNNN/A18.21611.95.44.24.32.5––5.232.3
23–24 Sep 2023ANN1,01818151457–5333[ah]22
1–8 Jul 2023Asahi2,113151613510–102–3[ai]27
3–4 Dec 2022JNN1,22711–1957–6221[aj]39
19–20 Nov 2022SSRC for Mainichi3,0695.9414.74.74.4–15.8––6.4[ak]17
17–18 Sep 2022SSRC6425.12.113.65.13.4–10.3––8[al]20.9

Preferred outcome

[edit]
Fieldwork datePolling firmSample sizeKishida continues as PMElection of new PMUnd. / no answerLead
22–23 Jun 2024SSRC2,0438632934

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Jump up to: a b c Has not declared his candidacy.
  2. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 2%; Yūko Obuchi: 1%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 1%
  3. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1.2%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.4%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 0.1%
  4. ^ None of these: 21.8%
  5. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.7%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.7%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 0.7%; Another MP: 0.4%
  6. ^ Another government politician: 2%; An opposition politician: 7%
  7. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 1%
  8. ^ None of these: 13%
  9. ^ Katsunobu Katō: 1%; Another MP: 1%
  10. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1.5%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.8%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 0.8%
  11. ^ Another government politician: 3%; An opposition politician: 6%
  12. ^ Another MP: 1.9%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.9%
  13. ^ Katsunobu Katō: 1%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 1%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
  14. ^ None of these: 11%
  15. ^ Another MP: 6%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.6%
  16. ^ Another MP: 8%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 2.4%
  17. ^ Kenta Izumi (CDP): 1.7%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.4%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.3%
  18. ^ None of these: 27.7%
  19. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 2%
  20. ^ None of these: 11%
  21. ^ Another MP: 8.2%; Katsunobu Katō: 1.4%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.9%
  22. ^ Another MP: 1%
  23. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
  24. ^ None of these: 15%
  25. ^ Another MP: 1%
  26. ^ Another government politician: 2%; An opposition politician: 6%
  27. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1.1%; Yūko Obuchi: 0.7%; Yasutoshi Nishimura: 0.4%; Kōichi Hagiuda: 0.3%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.1%
  28. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.5%; Yasutoshi Nishimura: 0.3%; Another MP: 2.5%
  29. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 1%
  30. ^ Another government politician: 2%; An opposition politician: 5%
  31. ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%
  32. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 3%; Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Another MP: 1%
  33. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
  34. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2%; Another MP: 1%
  35. ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2%; Another MP: 1%
  36. ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
  37. ^ Tōru Hashimoto (NIK): 2.1%; Hirofumi Yoshimura (NIK): 1.9%; Taro Yamamoto (REI): 1.4%
  38. ^ Tōru Hashimoto (NIK): 4.7%; Taro Yamamoto (REI): 3.3%

References

[edit]
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