2026 Portuguese presidential election
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Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal in January 2026. The elections will elect the successor to President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who is barred from running for a third term.
Background and election procedure
[edit]Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was re-elected in January 2021 with almost 61 percent of the votes on the first round. He took the oath of office on 9 March 2021, and continued the cohabitation with Socialist Prime Minister António Costa that lasted until April 2024. This cohabitation ended after the March 2024 elections which resulted in the nomination of Luís Montenegro, from the Social Democratic Party, also the party of the President, as Prime Minister. In Portugal, the president is the head of state and has mostly ceremonial powers; however, the president has some political influence and can dissolve the Parliament of Portugal if a crisis occurs. The president also has an official residence in the Belém Palace in Lisbon.
To stand for election, candidates for the presidency each have to gather 7,500 signatures of support one month before the election, and submit them to the Constitutional Court of Portugal. Then, the Constitutional Court has to certify if the candidacies submitted meet the requirements to appear on the ballot. The highest number of candidacies ever accepted was ten, in 2016. Under Portuguese law, a candidate must receive a majority of votes (50% plus one vote) to be elected. If no candidate achieves a majority in the first round, a runoff election (i.e., second round, held between the two candidates who receive the most votes in the first round) has to be held.
Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]Independent
[edit]Publicly expressed interest
[edit]Socialist Party
[edit]- Alexandra Leitão – incumbent Parliamentary leader of the Socialist Party (PS) since 2024; former minister for the Modernization of the State and Public Administration (2019–2022)[2]
- Augusto Santos Silva – former President of the Assembly of the Republic (2022–2024); minister in the 14th, 17th, 18th, 21st, 22nd governments[3][4]
Social Democratic Party
[edit]- Luís Marques Mendes – former Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader (2005–2007)[5][6]
CHEGA
[edit]- André Ventura – incumbent leader of CHEGA (since 2019); presidential candidate in the previous election[7]
Independent
[edit]- José Castelo Branco – socialite[8]
- Pedro Santana Lopes – incumbent mayor of Figueira da Foz since 2021 (also in 1998–2002); former prime minister (2004–2005); former Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader (2004–2005)[9][10] (decision expected in mid 2024)[11]
-
Socialite
José Castelo Branco -
Potential
[edit]Socialist Party
[edit]- Ana Gomes – former MEP (2014–2019); finished in second place in the previous presidential election[12]
- António Guterres – Secretary-General of the United Nations since 2017; former prime minister (1995–2002); former secretary-general of the Socialist Party (PS) (1992–2002)[6][13]
- António José Seguro – former secretary-general of the Socialist Party (PS) (2011–2014)[14]
- Fernando Medina – former Minister of Finance (2022–2024); former mayor of Lisbon (2015–2021)[4]
- Francisco Assis – incumbent MEP since 2024 (also in 2004–2009; 2014–2019); former mayor of Amarante (1990–1995)[4][15]
Social Democratic Party
[edit]- Leonor Beleza – former Minister of Health (1985–1990)[16]
- Pedro Passos Coelho – former prime minister (2011–2015); former Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader (2010–2018)[6][17]
- Rui Rio – former Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader (2018–2022); former mayor of Porto (2002–2013)[12]
Left Bloc
[edit]- Catarina Martins – incumbent MEP since 2024; former leader of the Left Bloc (2012–2023)[18]
- Francisco Louçã – former leader of the Left Bloc (BE) (1999–2012); candidate for the 2006 presidential election[12]
- Mariana Mortágua – Left Bloc (BE) leader since 2023[19]
Liberal Initiative
[edit]- João Cotrim de Figueiredo – incumbent MEP since 2024; former leader of the Liberal Initiative (IL) (2019–2023)[20]
- Tiago Mayan – incumbent President of the Parish of Aldoar, Foz do Douro e Nevogilde since 2021; presidential candidate in the previous election[12]
Portuguese Communist Party
[edit]- João Ferreira – former MEP (2009–2021); presidential candidate in the previous election[19]
- Paulo Raimundo – incumbent secretary-general of the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) (since 2022)[21]
CDS - People's Party
[edit]- Paulo Portas – former leader of CDS - People's Party (CDS-PP) (1998–2005, 2007–2016); deputy prime minister (2013–2015); minister in the 15th, 16th, 19th and 20th governments[6][22]
- Cecília Meireles – former member of Parliament (2009–2021); former Secretary of State for Tourism (2011–2013)[23]
Livre
[edit]- Rui Tavares – incumbent member of Parliament since 2022; former MEP (2009–2014)[24]
Independent
[edit]- António Sampaio da Nóvoa – former Rector of the University of Lisbon (2006–2013); finished in second place in the 2016 presidential election[25]
- José Sócrates – former prime minister (2005–2011); former secretary-general of the Socialist Party (PS) (2004–2011)[26]
- Mário Centeno – incumbent governor of the Bank of Portugal (since 2020); former President of the Eurogroup (2018–2020); former Minister of Finance (2015–2020)[4]
- Rui Moreira – incumbent mayor of Porto since 2013[6]
Declined
[edit]- António Costa – incumbent President of the European Council since 2024; former prime minister (2015–2024); former secretary-general of the Socialist Party (PS) (2014–2024)[27][28]
- António Vitorino – former Minister of the Presidency and Defence (1995–1997)[29][30]
- Henrique Gouveia e Melo – chief of the Naval Staff since 2021; former coordinator of the COVID-19 Vaccination Plan Task Force (2021); former commander of the European Maritime Force (2017–2019); Portuguese Navy officer[31][32][33]
- José Durão Barroso – former President of the European Commission (2004–2014); former prime minister (2002–2004); former Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader (1998–2004)[13][34][35]
Opinion polling
[edit]First round
[edit]Graphic summary
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Polling
[edit]| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
O/ U |
Lead | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ind. | PS | PSD | CDS | PSD | BE | BE | PS | CH | CDU | CDU | PS | IL | PSD | PS | Ind. | PS | Ind. | Ind. | L | |||||
| Intercampus | 19–26 Jul 2024 | 609 | 9.4 | — | 14.1 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 8.4 | — | — | 11.4 | — | 1.5 | 5.7 | 4.8 | — | 19.3 | — | — | 4.6 | 2.4 | — | 5.7 [a] |
5.2 |
| Duplimétrica | 6–13 May 2024 | 800 | 10 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 7 | — | 2 | — | 5 | — | — | 3 | — | 5 | 13 | — | — | 5 | — | — | 15 | 4 |
| Intercampus | 18–23 Apr 2024 | 605 | 8.4 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 2.7 | 5.7 | — | 5.9 | — | 7.7 | — | 1.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 13.6 | — | — | 2.9 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 9.0 | 1.1 |
| Intercampus | 9–14 Sep 2023 | 614 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 15.8 | 3.9 | 6.0 | — | 5.5 | 1.5 | 9.0 | — | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 14.8 | — | — | 3.9 | 2.0 | — | 9.3 | 1.0 |
| Intercampus | 3–6 Jul 2023 | 623 | 7.9 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | — | 6.9 | 1.4 | 11.4 | — | 0.8 | 5.9 | 3.2 | — | 15.1 | — | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | — | 6.3 | 0.8 |
| Intercampus | 3–10 Feb 2023 | 602 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 15.8 | — | 3.8 | 4.3 | — | 3.8 | 9.5 | — | — | 6.0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 13.5 | 4.7 | — | — | — | — | 10.2 [b] |
2.3 |
| Intercampus [c] |
15–20 Nov 2022 | 605 | 15.9 | 9.6 | 15.2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.0 | — | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.3 | — | 8.6 | 2.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.8 | 0.7 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jul 2022 | 605 | 31.7 | — | — | 10.9 | 10.4 | 7.8 | — | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3 | 20.8 |
| — | — | — | 18.3 | 17.4 | 12.7 | — | 12.2 | — | 4.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 34.9 | 0.9 | |||
| — | 31.1 | — | 13.6 | 16.2 | 7.8 | — | — | — | 4.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 27.4 | 14.9 | |||
| — | — | 23.1 | — | 16.5 | 12.9 | — | 12.4 | — | 4.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 30.6 | 6.6 |
Preferred candidate
[edit]Poll results showing public opinion on who would be the best candidate for each political side, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.
Center-right/Right
[edit]| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
O/U | Lead | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSD | PSD | PSD | CH | CDS | Ind. | IL | |||||
| 14–18 Sep 2023 | Aximage | 804 | 19.8 | 19.5 | 13.0 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 12.2 | 0.3 |
Center-left/Left
[edit]| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
O/U | Lead | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | PS | Ind. | BE | PS | PS | CDU | |||||
| 14–18 Sep 2023 | Aximage | 804 | 34 | 19 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 15 |
Approval ratings
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Polling
[edit]The table below lists the evolution of public opinion on the President's performance in office.
| Polling firm |
Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approve | Disapprove | No opinion | Net | |||
| Aximage | 3–8 Jul 2024 | 801 | 37 | 53 | 10 | 16 |
| Marktest | 5–7 Jun 2024 | 440 | 36.3 | 44.0 | 19.7 | 7.7 |
| Intercampus | 29 May–4 Jun 2024 | 604 | 25.7 | 44.6 | 29.8 | 18.9 |
| Aximage | 17–22 May 2024 | 801 | 32 | 60 | 8 | 28 |
| Intercampus | 12–20 May 2024 | 609 | 22.5 | 48.6 | 28.9 | 26.1 |
| Marktest | 7–15 May 2024 | 497 | 30.1 | 51.4 | 18.5 | 21.3 |
| Duplimétrica | 6–13 May 2024 | 800 | 25 | 30 | 45 | 5 |
| Intercampus | 18–23 Apr 2024 | 605 | 36.3 | 33.1 | 30.6 | 3.2 |
| Aximage | 29 Mar–3 Apr 2024 | 805 | 32 | 25 | 43 | 7 |
| Intercampus | 6–10 Feb 2024 | 608 | 33.8 | 33.4 | 32.8 | 0.4 |
| Intercampus | 16–20 Jan 2024 | 637 | 29.3 | 41.3 | 29.4 | 12.0 |
| Aximage | 18–23 Dec 2023 | 805 | 28 | 45 | 27 | 17 |
| Intercampus | 18–21 Dec 2023 | 611 | 29.3 | 38.1 | 32.6 | 8.8 |
| Aximage | 18–23 Nov 2023 | 802 | 37 | 33 | 30 | 4 |
| Intercampus | 14–17 Nov 2023 | 602 | 33.3 | 36.2 | 30.4 | 2.9 |
| Aximage | 18–24 Oct 2023 | 805 | 44 | 34 | 22 | 10 |
| Intercampus | 18–23 Oct 2023 | 604 | 38.3 | 33.1 | 28.6 | 5.2 |
| Aximage | 2–5 Oct 2023 | 601 | 34 | 30 | 36 | 4 |
| Intercampus | 9–14 Sep 2023 | 614 | 44.4 | 24.2 | 31.4 | 20.2 |
| Intercampus | 7–11 Aug 2023 | 607 | 50.1 | 21.0 | 28.9 | 29.1 |
| Aximage | 6–11 Jul 2023 | 800 | 53 | 27 | 20 | 26 |
| Intercampus | 3–6 Jul 2023 | 623 | 40.0 | 30.7 | 29.3 | 9.3 |
| Intercampus | 25–31 May 2023 | 611 | 37.5 | 32.4 | 30.1 | 5.1 |
| Aximage | 10–14 Apr 2023 | 805 | 44 | 37 | 19 | 7 |
| Intercampus | 6–12 Apr 2023 | 610 | 43.6 | 25.5 | 30.9 | 18.1 |
| Intercampus | 9–15 Mar 2023 | 613 | 45.6 | 26.8 | 27.6 | 18.8 |
| Intercampus | 3–10 Feb 2023 | 602 | 41.2 | 28.4 | 30.4 | 12.8 |
| Aximage | 10–14 Jan 2023 | 805 | 45 | 35 | 20 | 10 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jan 2023 | 605 | 46.8 | 26.3 | 27.0 | 20.5 |
| Pitagórica | 9–15 Dec 2022 | 828 | 63 | 32 | 5 | 31 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 3–15 Dec 2022 | 809 | 71 | 27 | 2 | 44 |
| Intercampus | 17–22 Oct 2022 | 607 | 45.0 | 26.3 | 28.7 | 18.7 |
| Aximage | 21–24 Sep 2022 | 810 | 49 | 25 | 26 | 24 |
| Intercampus | 9–15 Sep 2022 | 606 | 52.0 | 18.1 | 29.9 | 33.9 |
| Intercampus | 3–10 Aug 2022 | 605 | 56.5 | 16.9 | 26.6 | 39.6 |
| Pitagórica | 28 Jul–10 Aug 2022 | 828 | 64 | 31 | 5 | 33 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jul 2022 | 605 | 57.2 | 19.5 | 23.3 | 37.7 |
| Aximage | 5–10 Jul 2022 | 810 | 56 | 22 | 22 | 34 |
| Pitagórica | 21 Jun–4 Jul 2022 | 828 | 70 | 27 | 3 | 43 |
| Intercampus | 8–14 Jun 2022 | 611 | 60.9 | 13.8 | 25.3 | 47.1 |
| Intercampus | 7–15 May 2022 | 611 | 61.2 | 14.6 | 24.2 | 46.6 |
| Aximage | 12–18 Apr 2022 | 807 | 61 | 15 | 24 | 46 |
| Intercampus | 13–20 Aug 2021 | 612 | 62.3 | 12.8 | 24.9 | 49.5 |
| Eurosondagem | 26–29 Jul 2021 | 1,025 | 81.1 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 73.1 |
| Aximage | 10–12 Jul 2021 | 763 | 55 | 18 | 27 | 37 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–8 Jul 2021 | 1,022 | 80.8 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 71.1 |
| Aximage | 26–30 May 2021 | 796 | 70 | 10 | 20 | 60 |
| Eurosondagem | 10–13 May 2021 | 1,008 | 80.0 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 70.6 |
| Intercampus | 5–11 May 2021 | 610 | 69.0 | 11.1 | 19.9 | 57.9 |
| Aximage | 22–25 Apr 2021 | 830 | 71 | 10 | 19 | 61 |
| Intercampus | 7–13 Apr 2021 | 609 | 67.0 | 14.7 | 18.3 | 52.3 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 5–13 Apr 2021 | 802 | 79.9 | 7.3 | 12.8 | 72.6 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–8 Apr 2021 | 1,020 | 75.1 | 4.8 | 20.1 | 70.3 |
| Aximage | 24–27 Mar 2021 | 830 | 72 | 17 | 11 | 55 |
| Intercampus | 4–10 Mar 2021 | 615 | 69.3 | 10.2 | 20.5 | 59.1 |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Leonor Beleza - 0.9%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 4.8%:
- ^ Francisco Assis - 0.5%; Others/Neither/Would not vote - 9.7%:
- ^ Voters were asked which candidate they prefer.
References
[edit]- ^ "Tim Vieira anuncia candidatura a Belém. Quer "começar a criar uma visão para o país"". Diário de Notícias (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ^ Cunha, Mariana Lima. "Esquerda procura candidata a Belém e pensa em Alexandra Leitão, que admite "interesse" em "entendimentos alargados"". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-10-16.
- ^ Duarte, José Carlos. ""Nunca digas nunca" e "futuro a Deus pertence." Santos Silva não descarta candidatar-se à Presidência da República". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-03-31.
- ^ Jump up to: a b c d "O que Medina nos anda a esconder". Jornal Expresso (in European Portuguese). 21 April 2022. Retrieved 2022-04-21.
- ^ PÚBLICO (2023-08-27). "Marques Mendes admite candidatar-se à Presidência da República". PÚBLICO (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ^ Jump up to: a b c d e “Exclusivo Palácio de Belém, 2026. Os possíveis inquilinos que se seguem”, Diário de Notícias (October 25, 2020).
- ^ Antunes, André Filipe. "Presidenciais de 2026. André Ventura assume que pode ser candidato se Santos Silva e Marques Mendes avançarem". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ^ "José Castelo Branco: "Se calhar tenho que me candidatar à Presidência da República"". Holofote (in European Portuguese). 2022-01-16. Retrieved 2022-09-04.
- ^ ""Não me excluo de nada". Santana Lopes antevê presidenciais de 2026". ZAP Notícias (in European Portuguese). 2020-10-02. Retrieved 2021-11-18.
- ^ Figueiredo, Inês André. "Santana Lopes candidato a Presidente da República? "Não vejo no centro-direita ninguém com melhor currículo do que eu"". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ^ ECO (2023-08-30). "Santana Lopes atira decisão de concorrer às presidenciais para o meio de 2024". ECO (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
- ^ Jump up to: a b c d "Sondagem TVI/CNN: Gouveia e Melo, Costa e Passos Coelho são os candidatos presidenciais com maior potencial. Sócrates e Jerónimo no fim da tabela". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-07-18.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "Serão Guterres e Barroso presidenciáveis?". Jornal SOL (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-06-15.
- ^ Lopes, Ana Sá (9 May 2023). "António José Seguro já não exclui regressar à política". PÚBLICO (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-05-10.
- ^ "Francisco Assis diz que "não está nem deixa de estar disponível" para presidenciais". www.cmjornal.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-01-06.
- ^ "António Guterres destacado na corrida às presidenciais". www.cmjornal.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-08-01.
- ^ "Passos Coelho "vai perder muito significativamente" se for candidato a Presidente. "Seja qual for o candidato do outro lado"". TVI Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-04-17.
- ^ Cunha, Mariana Lima. "Catarina Martins não vai para a "reforma". Partido admite apostar na líder cessante para Europeias ou Presidenciais". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-06-15.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "Almirante Gouveia e Melo bate políticos na corrida à Presidência". www.cmjornal.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-07-15.
- ^ "Almirante Gouveia e Melo à frente de Pedro Passos Coelho na corrida à presidência da República". www.cmjornal.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-11-26.
- ^ "Eleições presidenciais". www.cmjornal.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-07-11.
- ^ ZAP (2020-10-11). "Portas não quer Câmara de Lisboa. Já está de olho nas presidenciais de 2026". ZAP Notícias (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-01-11.
- ^ "Foi você que pediu um candidato a Belém?". Expresso (in Portuguese). 2023-08-28. Retrieved 2024-01-23.
- ^ "Costa lidera na presidência com Guterres por perto". www.cmjornal.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-08-03.
- ^ Ferreira, Mariana Lima Cunha, Marina. "Sampaio da Nóvoa corre campanhas da esquerda. Presidenciais em mente?". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-04-26.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "Sócrates diz que "mentiras caíram", promete defender-se e avisa ter "muito a dizer", Jornal de Negócios (April 9, 2021).
- ^ “Costa prepara Legislativas a pensar nas Presidenciais de 2026? Há quem aposte nisso”, Observador (June 11, 2018).
- ^ SAPO. "António Costa como presidente da República? "É cargo que nunca exercerei na vida"". SAPO 24 (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-05-03.
- ^ Mariana Lima Cunha; Rui Pedro Antunes (25 May 2023). "Vitorino, que já foi o favorito de Costa para Belém, não entusiasma PS". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-05-27.
- ^ "António Vitorino afasta candidatura a Belém". www.rtp.pt. Retrieved 2024-07-11.
- ^ "Candidatura à Presidência da República? Gouveia e Melo diz que daria um péssimo político". SIC Notícias (in European Portuguese). Archived from the original on 2021-12-08. Retrieved 2021-12-08.
- ^ Portugal, Rádio e Televisão de (16 December 2021). "Vice-Almirante Gouveia e Melo não exclui candidatura a Belém". Vice-Almirante Gouveia e Melo não exclui candidatura a Belém (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2021-12-16.
- ^ "Gouveia e Melo sobre candidatura presidencial. "Parece que alguém quer ter um seguro de vida"". Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-01-22.
- ^ "Marcelo deita o país no divã e lança mais um candidato a Belém". www.dn.pt (in European Portuguese). 21 December 2022. Retrieved 2022-12-22.
- ^ "Durão Barroso avisa PSD que tem de "ganhar" as eleições europeias (e afasta candidatura presidencial)". Expresso (in Portuguese). 2023-09-02. Retrieved 2024-01-22.
