Хронология далекого будущего

Некоторые термины, такие как «3101», перенаправляются сюда. Чтобы узнать о других значениях, см. Список чисел и Список лет .

Представление художника о Земле через 5–7,5 миллиардов лет, когда Солнце станет красным гигантом.

Хотя будущее невозможно предсказать с уверенностью, нынешнее понимание различных научных областей позволяет предсказать некоторые события далекого будущего, хотя бы в самых общих чертах. Эти области включают астрофизику , которая изучает, как планеты и звезды формируются, взаимодействуют и умирают; физика элементарных частиц , которая показала, как материя ведет себя на мельчайших масштабах; эволюционная биология , которая изучает, как жизнь развивается с течением времени; тектоника плит , которая показывает, как континенты смещаются на протяжении тысячелетий; и социология , которая исследует, как развиваются человеческие общества и культуры.

Эти временные рамки начинаются в начале 4-го тысячелетия в 3001 году нашей эры и продолжаются до самых отдаленных уголков будущего. Они включают в себя альтернативные будущие события, которые решают нерешенные научные вопросы, например, вымрут ли люди , выживет ли Земля, когда Солнце расширится и станет красным гигантом , и станет ли распад протона окончательным концом всей материи во Вселенной.

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	Astronomy and astrophysics
	Geology and planetary science
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	Technology and culture

Earth, the Solar System, and the universe

See also: Formation and evolution of the Solar System and List of future astronomical events

All projections of the future of Earth, the Solar System, and the universe must account for the second law of thermodynamics, which states that entropy, or a loss of the energy available to do work, must rise over time. Stars will eventually exhaust their supply of hydrogen fuel via fusion and burn out. The Sun will likely expand sufficiently to overwhelm most of the inner planets (Mercury, Venus, possibly Earth), but not the giant planets, including Jupiter and Saturn. Afterwards, the Sun would be reduced to the size of a white dwarf, and the outer planets and their moons would continue orbiting this diminutive solar remnant. This future situation may be similar to the white dwarf star MOA-2010-BLG-477L and the Jupiter-sized exoplanet orbiting it.

Long after the death of the solar system, physicists expect that matter itself will eventually disintegrate under the influence of radioactive decay, as even the most stable materials break apart into subatomic particles. Current data suggest that the universe has a flat geometry (or very close to flat), and thus will not collapse in on itself after a finite time. This infinite future could allow for the occurrence of even massively improbable events, such as the formation of Boltzmann brains.

	Years from now	Event
	1,000	Due to the lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, the average length of a solar day will be 1⁄30 SI second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a leap second will have to be added to the end of a day multiple times during each month, or one or more consecutive leap seconds will have to be added at the end of some or all months.
	1,100	As Earth's poles precess, Gamma Cephei replaces Polaris as the northern pole star.
	10,000	If a failure of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin "ice plug" in the next few centuries were to endanger the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, it would take up to this long to melt completely. Sea levels would rise 3 to 4 metres. One of the potential long-term effects of global warming, this is separate from the shorter-term threat to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
	10,000 – 1 million	The red supergiant stars Betelgeuse and Antares will likely have exploded as supernovae. For a few months, the explosions should be easily visible on Earth in daylight.
	11,700	As Earth's poles precess, Vega, the fifth-brightest star in the sky, becomes the northern pole star. Although Earth cycles through many different naked eye northern pole stars, Vega is the brightest.
	11,000–15,000	By this point, halfway through Earth's precessional cycle, Earth's axial tilt will be mirrored, causing summer and winter to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This means that the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere will be less extreme than they are today, as it will be facing away from the Sun at Earth's perihelion and towards the Sun at aphelion, while the seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, which experiences more pronounced seasonal variation due to a higher percentage of land, will be more extreme.
	15,000	According to the Sahara pump theory, the oscillating tilt of Earth's poles will move the North African Monsoon far enough north to change the climate of the Sahara back into a tropical one such as it had 5,000–10,000 years ago.
	17,000	The best-guess recurrence rate for a "civilization-threatening" supervolcanic eruption large enough to eject one teratonne (one trillion tonnes) of pyroclastic material.
	25,000	Mars' northern polar ice cap could recede as Mars reaches a warming peak of the northern hemisphere during the c. 50,000-year perihelion precession aspect of its Milankovitch cycle.
	36,000	The small red dwarf Ross 248 will pass within 3.024 light-years of Earth, becoming the closest star to the Sun. It will recede after about 8,000 years, making first Alpha Centauri (again) and then Gliese 445 the nearest stars (see timeline).
	50,000	According to Berger and Loutre (2002), the current interglacial period will end, sending the Earth back into a glacial period of the current ice age, regardless of the effects of anthropogenic global warming. However, according to more recent studies in 2016, anthropogenic climate change, if left unchecked, may delay this otherwise expected glacial period by as much as an additional 50,000 years, potentially skipping it entirely. Niagara Falls will have eroded the remaining 32 km to Lake Erie, and will therefore cease to exist. The many glacial lakes of the Canadian Shield will have been erased by post-glacial rebound and erosion.
	50,000	Due to lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one SI second longer than it is today. In order to compensate, either a leap second will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one SI second.
	100,000	The proper motion of stars across the celestial sphere, which results from their movement through the Milky Way, renders many of the constellations unrecognizable.
	100,000	The red hypergiant star VY Canis Majoris will likely have exploded in a supernova.
	100,000	Native North American earthworms, such as Megascolecidae, will have naturally spread north through the United States Upper Midwest to the Canada–US border, recovering from the Laurentide Ice Sheet glaciation (38°N to 49°N), assuming a migration rate of 10 metres per year, and that a possible renewed glaciation by this time has not prevented this. (However, humans have already introduced non-native invasive earthworms of North America on a much shorter timescale, causing a shock to the regional ecosystem.)
	100,000–10 million	Cupid and Belinda, moons of Uranus, will likely have collided.
	> 100,000	As one of the long-term effects of global warming, 10% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide will still remain in a stabilized atmosphere.
	250,000	Kamaʻehuakanaloa (formerly Lōʻihi), the youngest volcano in the Hawaiian–Emperor seamount chain, will rise above the surface of the ocean and become a new volcanic island.
	c. 300,000	At some point in the next few hundred thousand years, the Wolf–Rayet star WR 104 may explode in a supernova. There is a small chance WR 104 is spinning fast enough to produce a gamma-ray burst, and an even smaller chance that such a GRB could pose a threat to life on Earth.
	500,000	Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 1 km in diameter, assuming that it is not averted.
	500,000	The rugged terrain of Badlands National Park in South Dakota will have eroded completely.
	1 million	Meteor Crater, a large impact crater in Arizona considered the "freshest" of its kind, will have worn away.
	1 million	Desdemona and Cressida, moons of Uranus, will likely have collided.
	1.29 ± 0.04 million	The star Gliese 710 will pass as close as 0.051 parsecs—0.1663 light-years (10,520 astronomical units)—to the Sun before moving away. This will gravitationally perturb members of the Oort cloud, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter raising the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.
	2 million	The estimated time for the full recovery of coral reef ecosystems from human-caused ocean acidification if such acidification goes unchecked; the recovery of marine ecosystems after the acidification event that occurred about 65 million years ago took a similar length of time.
	2 million+	The Grand Canyon will erode further, deepening slightly, but principally widening into a broad valley surrounding the Colorado River.
	2.7 million	The average orbital half-life of current centaurs, that are unstable because of gravitational interaction of the several outer planets. See predictions for notable centaurs.
	3 million	Due to tidal deceleration gradually slowing Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one minute longer than it is today.
	10 million	The Red Sea will flood the widening East African Rift valley, causing a new ocean basin to divide the continent of Africa and the African Plate into the newly formed Nubian Plate and the Somali Plate. The Indian Plate will advance into Tibet by 180 km (110 mi). Nepali territory, whose boundaries are defined by the Himalayan peaks and on the plains of India, will cease to exist.
	10 million	The estimated time for full recovery of biodiversity after a potential Holocene extinction, if it were on the scale of the five previous major extinction events. Even without a mass extinction, by this time most current species will have disappeared through the background extinction rate, with many clades gradually evolving into new forms.
	50 million	Maximum estimated time before the moon Phobos collides with Mars.
	50 million	According to Christopher Scotese, the movement of the San Andreas Fault will cause the Gulf of California to flood into the Central Valley. This will form a new inland sea on the West Coast of North America, causing the current locations of Los Angeles, California and San Francisco, California to merge. The Californian coast will begin to be subducted into the Aleutian Trench. Africa's collision with Eurasia will close the Mediterranean Basin and create a mountain range similar to the Himalayas. The Appalachian Mountains peaks will largely wear away, weathering at 5.7 Bubnoff units, although topography will actually rise as regional valleys deepen at twice this rate.
	50–60 million	The Canadian Rockies will wear away to a plain, assuming a rate of 60 Bubnoff units. The Southern Rockies in the United States are eroding at a somewhat slower rate.
	50–400 million	The estimated time for Earth to naturally replenish its fossil fuel reserves.
	80 million	The Big Island will have become the last of the current Hawaiian Islands to sink beneath the surface of the ocean, while a more recently formed chain of "new Hawaiian Islands" will then have emerged in their place.
	100 million	Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid comparable in size to the one that triggered the K–Pg extinction 66 million years ago, assuming this is not averted.
	100 million	According to the Pangaea Proxima model created by Christopher R. Scotese, a new subduction zone will open in the Atlantic Ocean and the Americas will begin to converge back toward Africa. Upper estimate for lifespan of the rings of Saturn in their current state.
	110 million	The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 1%.
	180 million	Due to the gradual slowing of Earth's rotation, a day on Earth will be one hour longer than it is today.
	240 million	From its present position, the Solar System completes one full orbit of the Galactic Center.
	250 million	According to Christopher R. Scotese, due to the northward movement of the West Coast of North America, the coast of California will collide with Alaska.
	250–350 million	All the continents on Earth may fuse into a supercontinent. Four potential arrangements of this configuration have been dubbed Amasia, Novopangaea, Pangaea Proxima, and Aurica. This will likely result in a glacial period, lowering sea levels and increasing oxygen levels, further lowering global temperatures.
	> 250 million	Rapid biological evolution may occur due to the formation of a supercontinent causing lower temperatures and higher oxygen levels. Increased competition between species due to the formation of a supercontinent, increased volcanic activity and less hospitable conditions due to global warming from a brighter Sun could result in a mass extinction event from which plant and animal life may not fully recover.
	300 million	Due to a shift in the equatorial Hadley cells to roughly 40° north and south, the amount of arid land will increase by 25%.
	300–600 million	The estimated time for Venus's mantle temperature to reach its maximum. Then, over a period of about 100 million years, major subduction occurs and the crust is recycled.
	350 million	According to the extroversion model first developed by Paul F. Hoffman, subduction ceases in the Pacific Ocean Basin.
	400–500 million	The supercontinent (Pangaea Ultima, Novopangaea, Amasia, or Aurica) will likely have rifted apart. This will likely result in higher global temperatures, similar to the Cretaceous period.
	500 million	The estimated time until a gamma-ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's ozone layer and potentially trigger a mass extinction, assuming the hypothesis is correct that a previous such explosion triggered the Ordovician–Silurian extinction event. However, the supernova would have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth to have such effect.
	600 million	Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from Earth that total solar eclipses are no longer possible.
	500–600 million	The Sun's increasing luminosity begins to disrupt the carbonate–silicate cycle; higher luminosity increases weathering of surface rocks, which traps carbon dioxide in the ground as carbonate. As water evaporates from the Earth's surface, rocks harden, causing plate tectonics to slow and eventually stop once the oceans evaporate completely. With less volcanism to recycle carbon into the Earth's atmosphere, carbon dioxide levels begin to fall. By this time, carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which C3 photosynthesis is no longer possible. All plants that use C3 photosynthesis (≈99 percent of present-day species) will die. The extinction of C3 plant life is likely to be a long-term decline rather than a sharp drop. It is likely that plant groups will die one by one well before the critical carbon dioxide level is reached. The first plants to disappear will be C3 herbaceous plants, followed by deciduous forests, evergreen broad-leaf forests and finally evergreen conifers.
	500–800 million	As Earth begins to warm and carbon dioxide levels fall, plants—and, by extension, animals—could survive longer by evolving other strategies such as requiring less carbon dioxide for photosynthetic processes, becoming carnivorous, adapting to desiccation, or associating with fungi. These adaptations are likely to appear near the beginning of the moist greenhouse. The decrease in plant life will result in less oxygen in the atmosphere, allowing for more DNA-damaging ultraviolet radiation to reach the surface. The rising temperatures will increase chemical reactions in the atmosphere, further lowering oxygen levels. Plant and animal communities become increasingly sparse and isolated as the Earth becomes more barren. Flying animals would be better off because of their ability to travel large distances looking for cooler temperatures. Many animals may be driven to the poles or possibly underground. These creatures would become active during the polar night and aestivate during the polar day due to the intense heat and radiation. Much of the land would become a barren desert, and plants and animals would primarily be found in the oceans.
	500–800 million	As pointed out by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee in their book The Life and Death of Planet Earth, according to NASA Ames scientist Kevin Zahnle, this is the earliest time for plate tectonics to eventually stop, due to the gradual cooling of the Earth's core, which could potentially turn the Earth back into a waterworld. This would, in turn, likely cause the extinction of animal life on Earth.
	800–900 million	Carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which C4 photosynthesis is no longer possible. Without plant life to recycle oxygen in the atmosphere, free oxygen and the ozone layer will disappear from the atmosphere allowing for intense levels of deadly UV light to reach the surface. Animals in food chains that were dependent on live plants will disappear shortly afterward. At most, animal life could survive about 3 to 100 million years after plant life dies out. Just like plants, the extinction of animals will likely coincide with the loss of plants. It will start with large animals, then smaller animals and flying creatures, then amphibians, followed by reptiles, and finally, invertebrates. In the book The Life and Death of Planet Earth, authors Peter D. Ward and Donald Brownlee state that some animal life may be able to survive in the oceans. Eventually, however, all multicellular life will die out. The first sea animals to go extinct will be large fish, followed by small fish, and then finally, invertebrates. The last animals to go extinct will be animals that do not depend on living plants, such as termites, or those near hydrothermal vents, such as worms of the genus Riftia. The only life left on the Earth after this will be single-celled organisms.
	1 billion	27% of the ocean's mass will have been subducted into the mantle. If this were to continue uninterrupted, it would reach an equilibrium where 65% of present-day surface water would be subducted.
	1 billion	By this point, the Sagittarius Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy will have been completely consumed by the Milky Way.
	1.1 billion	The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 10%, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of around 320 K (47 °C; 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans. This would cause plate tectonics to stop completely, if not already stopped before this time. Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.
	1.2 billion	High estimate until all plant life dies out, assuming some form of photosynthesis is possible despite extremely low carbon dioxide levels. If this is possible, rising temperatures will make any animal life unsustainable from this point on.
	1.3 billion	Eukaryotic life dies out on Earth due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only prokaryotes remain.
	1.5 billion	Callisto is captured into the mean–motion resonance of the other Galilean moons of Jupiter, completing the 1:2:4:8 chain. (Currently only Io, Europa, and Ganymede participate in the 1:2:4 resonance.)
	1.5–1.6 billion	The Sun's rising luminosity causes its circumstellar habitable zone to move outwards; as carbon dioxide rises in Mars' atmosphere, its surface temperature rises to levels akin to Earth during the ice age.
	1.5–4.5 billion	Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from the Earth to the point where it can no longer stabilize Earth's axial tilt. As a consequence, Earth's true polar wander becomes chaotic and extreme, leading to dramatic shifts in the planet's climate due to the changing axial tilt.
	1.6 billion	Lower estimate until all remaining life, which by now had been reduced to colonies of unicellular organisms in isolated microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes and caves, goes extinct.
	< 2 billion	The first close passage of the Andromeda Galaxy and the Milky Way.
	2 billion	High estimate until the Earth's oceans evaporate if the atmospheric pressure were to decrease via the nitrogen cycle.
	2.55 billion	The Sun will have reached a maximum surface temperature of 5,820 K (5,550 °C; 10,020 °F). From then on, it will become gradually cooler while its luminosity will continue to increase.
	2.8 billion	Earth's surface temperature will reach around 420 K (147 °C; 296 °F), even at the poles.
	2.8 billion	High estimate until all remaining Earth life goes extinct.
	3–4 billion	The Earth's core freezes if the inner core continues to grow in size, based on its current growth rate of 1 mm (0.039 in) in diameter per year. Without its liquid outer core, Earth's magnetosphere shuts down, and solar winds gradually deplete the atmosphere.
	c. 3 billion	There is a roughly 1-in-100,000 chance that the Earth will be ejected into interstellar space by a stellar encounter before this point, and a 1-in-300-billion chance that it will be both ejected into space and captured by another star around this point. If this were to happen, any remaining life on Earth could potentially survive for far longer if it survived the interstellar journey.
	3.3 billion	There is a roughly 1% chance that Jupiter's gravity may make Mercury's orbit so eccentric as to cross Venus's orbit by this time, sending the inner Solar System into chaos. Other possible scenarios include Mercury colliding with the Sun, being ejected from the Solar System, or colliding with Venus or Earth.
	3.5–4.5 billion	The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 35–40%, causing all water currently present in lakes and oceans to evaporate, if it had not done so earlier. The greenhouse effect caused by the massive, water-rich atmosphere will result in Earth's surface temperature rising to 1,400 K (1,130 °C; 2,060 °F)—hot enough to melt some surface rock.
	3.6 billion	Neptune's moon Triton falls through the planet's Roche limit, potentially disintegrating into a planetary ring system similar to Saturn's.
	4.5 billion	Mars reaches the same solar flux the Earth did when it first formed, 4.5 billion years ago from today.
	< 5 billion	The Andromeda Galaxy will have fully merged with the Milky Way, forming an elliptical galaxy dubbed "Milkomeda". There is also a small chance of the Solar System being ejected. The planets of the Solar System will almost certainly not be disturbed by these events.
	5.4 billion	The sun, having now exhausted its hydrogen supply, leaves the main sequence and begins evolving into a red giant.
	6.5 billion	Mars reaches the same solar radiation flux as Earth today, after which it will suffer a similar fate to the Earth as described above.
	6.6 billion	The Sun may experience a helium flash, resulting in its core becoming as bright as the combined luminosity of all the stars in the Milky Way galaxy.
	7.5 billion	Earth and Mars may become tidally locked with the expanding red giant Sun.
	7.59 billion	The Earth and Moon are very likely destroyed by falling into the Sun, just before the Sun reaches the top of its red giant phase. Before the final collision, the Moon possibly spirals below Earth's Roche limit, breaking into a ring of debris, most of which falls to the Earth's surface. During this era, Saturn's moon Titan may reach surface temperatures necessary to support life.
	7.9 billion	The Sun reaches the top of the red-giant branch of the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram, achieving its maximum radius of 256 times the present-day value. In the process, Mercury, Venus, and Earth are likely destroyed.
	8 billion	The Sun becomes a carbon–oxygen white dwarf with about 54.05% of its present mass. At this point, if the Earth survives, temperatures on the surface of the planet, as well as the other planets in the Solar System, will begin dropping rapidly, due to the white dwarf Sun emitting much less energy than it does today.
	22.3 billion	The estimated time until the end of the universe in a Big Rip, assuming a model of dark energy with w = −1.5. If the density of dark energy is less than −1, then the Universe's expansion will continue to accelerate and the Observable Universe will grow ever sparser. Around 200 million years before the Big Rip, galaxy clusters like the Local Group or the Sculptor Group would be destroyed. Sixty million years before the Big Rip, all galaxies will begin to lose stars around their edges and will completely disintegrate in another 40 million years. Three months before the Big Rip, star systems will become gravitationally unbound, and planets will fly off into the rapidly expanding universe. Thirty minutes before the Big Rip, planets, stars, asteroids and even extreme objects like neutron stars and black holes will evaporate into atoms. One hundred zeptoseconds (10−19 seconds) before the Big Rip, atoms would break apart. Ultimately, once the Rip reaches the Planck scale, cosmic strings would be disintegrated as well as the fabric of spacetime itself. The universe would enter into a "rip singularity" when all non-zero distances become infinitely large. Whereas a "crunch singularity" involves all matter being infinitely concentrated, in a "rip singularity", all matter is infinitely spread out. However, observations of galaxy cluster speeds by the Chandra X-ray Observatory suggest that the true value of w is c. −0.991, meaning the Big Rip is unlikely to occur.
	50 billion	If the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the Sun, by this time they will become tidally locked, with each showing only one face to the other. Thereafter, the tidal action of the white dwarf Sun will extract angular momentum from the system, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate.
	65 billion	The Moon may collide with the Earth or be torn apart to form an orbital ring due to the decay of its orbit, assuming the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the red giant Sun.
	100 billion–1012 (1 trillion)	All the ≈47 galaxies of the Local Group will coalesce into a single large galaxy—an expanded "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda"; the last galaxies of the Local Group coalescing will mark the effective completion of its evolution.
	100–150 billion	The Universe's expansion causes all galaxies beyond the former Local Group to disappear beyond the cosmic light horizon, removing them from the observable universe.
	150 billion	The universe will have expanded by a factor of 6,000, and the cosmic microwave background will have cooled by the same factor to around 4.5×10−4 K. The temperature of the background will continue to cool in proportion to the expansion of the universe.
	325 billion	The estimated time by which the expansion of the universe isolates all gravitationally bound structures within their own cosmological horizon. At this point, the universe has expanded by a factor of more than 100 million from today, and even individual exiled stars are isolated.
	800 billion	The expected time when the net light emission from the combined "Milkomeda" galaxy begins to decline as the red dwarf stars pass through their blue dwarf stage of peak luminosity.
	1012 (1 trillion)	A low estimate for the time until star formation ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of the gas clouds they need to form stars. The Universe's expansion, assuming a constant dark energy density, multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwave background by 1029, exceeding the scale of the cosmic light horizon and rendering its evidence of the Big Bang undetectable. However, it may still be possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study of hypervelocity stars.
	1.05×1012 (1.05 trillion)	The estimated time by which the Universe will have expanded by a factor of more than 1026, reducing the average particle density to less than one particle per cosmological horizon volume. Beyond this point, particles of unbound intergalactic matter are effectively isolated, and collisions between them cease to affect the future evolution of the Universe.
	1.4×1012 (1.4 trillion)	The estimated time by which the cosmic background radiation cools to a floor temperature of 10−30 K and does not decline further. This residual temperature comes from horizon radiation, which does not decline over time.
	2×1012 (2 trillion)	The estimated time by which all objects beyond our former Local Group are redshifted by a factor of more than 1053. Even gamma rays that they emit are stretched so that their wavelengths are greater than the physical diameter of the horizon. The resolution time for such radiation will exceed the physical age of the universe.
	4×1012 (4 trillion)	The estimated time until the red dwarf star Proxima Centauri, the closest star to the Sun today, at a distance of 4.25 light-years, leaves the main sequence and becomes a white dwarf.
	1013 (10 trillion)	The estimated time of peak habitability in the universe, unless habitability around low-mass stars is suppressed.
	1.2×1013 (12 trillion)	The estimated time until the red dwarf VB 10, as of 2016 the least-massive main sequence star with an estimated mass of 0.075 M☉, runs out of hydrogen in its core and becomes a white dwarf.
	3×1013 (30 trillion)	The estimated time for stars (including the Sun) to undergo a close encounter with another star in local stellar neighborhoods. Whenever two stars (or stellar remnants) pass close to each other, their planets' orbits can be disrupted, potentially ejecting them from the system entirely. On average, the closer a planet's orbit to its parent star the longer it takes to be ejected in this manner, because it is gravitationally more tightly bound to the star.
	1014 (100 trillion)	A high estimate for the time by which normal star formation ends in galaxies. This marks the transition from the Stelliferous Era to the Degenerate Era; with too little free hydrogen to form new stars, all remaining stars slowly exhaust their fuel and die. By this time, the universe will have expanded by a factor of approximately 102554.
	1.1–1.2×1014 (110–120 trillion)	The time by which all stars in the universe will have exhausted their fuel (the longest-lived stars, low-mass red dwarfs, have lifespans of roughly 10–20 trillion years). After this point, the stellar-mass objects remaining are stellar remnants (white dwarfs, neutron stars, black holes) and brown dwarfs. Collisions between brown dwarfs will create new red dwarfs on a marginal level: on average, about 100 stars will be shining in what was once the Milky Way. Collisions between stellar remnants will create occasional supernovae.
	1015 (1 quadrillion)	The estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in star systems (including the Solar System) from their orbits. By this point, the black dwarf that was once the Sun will have cooled to 5 K (−268.15 °C; −450.67 °F).
	1019 to 1020 (10–100 quintillion)	The estimated time until 90–99% of brown dwarfs and stellar remnants (including the Sun) are ejected from galaxies. When two objects pass close enough to each other, they exchange orbital energy, with lower-mass objects tending to gain energy. Through repeated encounters, the lower-mass objects can gain enough energy in this manner to be ejected from their galaxy. This process eventually causes "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" to eject the majority of its brown dwarfs and stellar remnants.
	1020 (100 quintillion)	The estimated time until the Earth collides with the black dwarf Sun due to the decay of its orbit via emission of gravitational radiation, if the Earth is not ejected from its orbit by a stellar encounter or engulfed by the Sun during its red giant phase.
	1023 (100 sextillion)	Around this timescale most stellar remnants and other objects are ejected from the remains of their galactic cluster.
	1030 (1 nonillion)	The estimated time until most or all of the remaining 1–10% of stellar remnants not ejected from galaxies fall into their galaxies' central supermassive black holes. By this point, with binary stars having fallen into each other, and planets into their stars, via emission of gravitational radiation, only solitary objects (stellar remnants, brown dwarfs, ejected planetary-mass objects, black holes) will remain in the universe.
	2×1036 (2 undecillion)	The estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the hypothesized proton half-life takes its smallest possible value (8.2 × 1033 years).
	1036–1038 (1–100 undecillion)	Estimated time for all remaining planets and stellar-mass objects, including the Sun, to disintegrate if proton decay can occur.
	3×1043 (30 tredecillion)	Estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the hypothesized proton half-life takes the largest possible value, 1041 years, assuming that the Big Bang was inflationary and that the same process that made baryons predominate over anti-baryons in the early Universe makes protons decay. By this time, if protons do decay, the Black Hole Era, in which black holes are the only remaining celestial objects, begins.
	3.14×1050 (314 quindecillion)	The estimated time until a micro black hole of 1 Earth mass today, decays into subatomic particles by the emission of Hawking radiation.
	1065 (100 vigintillion)	Assuming that protons do not decay, estimated time for rigid objects, from free-floating rocks in space to planets, to rearrange their atoms and molecules via quantum tunneling. On this timescale, any discrete body of matter "behaves like a liquid" and becomes a smooth sphere due to diffusion and gravity.
	1.16×1067 (11.6 unvigintillion)	The estimated time until a black hole of 1 solar mass today, decays by Hawking radiation.
	1.54×1091–1.41×1092 (15.4 –141 novemvigintillion)	The estimated time until the resulting supermassive black hole of "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" from the merger of Sagittarius A* and the P2 concentration during the collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies vanishes by Hawking radiation, assuming it does not accrete any additional matter nor merge with other black holes—though it is most likely that this supermassive black hole will nonetheless merge with other supermassive black holes during the gravitational collapse towards "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" of other Local Group galaxies. This supermassive black hole might be the very last entity from the former Local Group to disappear—and the last evidence of its existence.
	10106 – 2.1 × 10109	The estimated time until ultramassive black holes of 1014 (100 trillion) solar masses, predicted to form during the gravitational collapse of galaxy superclusters, decay by Hawking radiation. This marks the end of the Black Hole Era. Beyond this time, if protons do decay, the universe enters the Dark Era, in which all physical objects have decayed to subatomic particles, gradually winding down to their final energy state in the heat death of the universe.
	10161	A 2018 estimate of Standard Model lifetime before collapse of a false vacuum; 95% confidence interval is 1065 to 101383 years due in part to uncertainty about the top quark's mass.
	10200	The highest estimate for the time it would take for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if they do not decay via the above process, but instead through any one of many different mechanisms allowed in modern particle physics (higher-order baryon non-conservation processes, virtual black holes, sphalerons, etc.) on time scales of 1046 to 10200 years.
	101100–32000	The estimated time for black dwarfs of 1.2 solar masses or more to undergo supernovae as a result of slow silicon–nickel–iron fusion, as the declining electron fraction lowers their Chandrasekhar limit, assuming protons do not decay.
	101500	Assuming protons do not decay, estimated time until all baryonic matter in stellar remnants, planets, and planetary-mass objects has either fused together via muon-catalyzed fusion to form iron-56 or decayed from a higher mass element into iron-56 to form iron stars.
	$10^{10^{26}}$	Заниженная оценка времени, пока все железные звезды не схлопнутся в результате квантового туннелирования в черные дыры , при условии отсутствия распада протона или виртуальных черных дыр и возможности существования черных дыр планковского масштаба. В таком огромном масштабе времени даже сверхстабильные железные звезды будут уничтожены событиями квантового туннелирования. На этом нижнем конце временной шкалы железные звезды распадаются непосредственно на черные дыры, поскольку этот режим распада гораздо более благоприятен, чем распад на нейтронную звезду (ожидаемый временной масштаб которой составляет $10^{10^{76}}$ годы), а затем распалась в черную дыру. Последующее испарение каждой образующейся черной дыры на субатомные частицы (процесс, продолжающийся примерно 10 100 лет), и последующий переход к Темной Эре в этих временных масштабах происходит мгновенно.
	$10^{10^{50}}$	Предполагаемое время появления мозга Больцмана в вакууме за счет спонтанного уменьшения энтропии .
	$10^{10^{76}}$	Самая высокая оценка времени, пока все железные звезды не разрушатся в результате квантового туннелирования в нейтронные звезды или черные дыры, при условии отсутствия распада протона или виртуальных черных дыр и того, что черные дыры ниже массы Чандрасекара не могут образоваться напрямую. В этих временных масштабах нейтронные звезды выше массы Чандрасекара быстро коллапсируют в черные дыры, а черные дыры, образовавшиеся в результате этих процессов, мгновенно испаряются в субатомные частицы. Это также максимально возможное время начала Эры Черной Дыры (и последующей Темной Эры). За этой точкой почти наверняка Вселенная будет представлять собой почти чистый вакуум, в котором вся барионная материя распадется на субатомные частицы, постепенно снижая свой энергетический уровень, пока не достигнет своего конечного энергетического состояния , предполагая, что этого не произойдет до этого времени. .
	$10^{10^{120}}$	Наивысшая оценка времени, необходимого Вселенной для достижения конечного энергетического состояния.
	$10^{10^{10^{56}}}$	Примерно в этот огромный период времени квантовое туннелирование в любом изолированном участке Вселенной может породить новые инфляционные события , приводящие к новым Большим Взрывам, порождающим новые вселенные. (Потому что общее число способов объединения всех субатомных частиц в наблюдаемой Вселенной равно $10^{10^{115}}$, число, которое при умножении на $10^{10^{10^{56}}}$, исчезает в ошибке округления, это также время, необходимое для того, чтобы Большой Взрыв, генерируемый квантовыми туннелями и квантовыми флуктуациями, создал новую вселенную, идентичную нашей, при условии, что каждая новая вселенная содержит по крайней мере одинаковое количество субатомных частиц и подчинялись законам физики в ландшафте, предсказанном теорией струн .)

Человечество и человеческие конструкции

На сегодняшний день пять космических кораблей ( «Вояджер-1» , «Вояджер-2» , «Пионер-10» , «Пионер-11» и «Новые горизонты» ) находятся на траекториях, которые выведут их из Солнечной системы в межзвездное пространство . За исключением крайне маловероятного столкновения с каким-либо объектом, корабль должен существовать неопределенно долго.

	Дата или годы спустя	Событие
	1,000	Ядерный спутник SNAP -10A , запущенный в 1965 году на орбиту высотой 700 км (430 миль) над Землей, вернется на поверхность.
	3183 г. н. э.	Zeitpyramide Вемдинге ( пирамида времени ), публичное произведение искусства, начало которому было положено в 1993 году в , Германия , планируется завершить.
	2,000	Максимальный срок службы фильмов с данными в Arctic World Archive — репозитории, который содержит код проектов с открытым исходным кодом на GitHub, а также другие данные, представляющие исторический интерес, при условии хранения в оптимальных условиях.
	10,000	Пилотный завод по изоляции отходов ядерного оружия до этого времени планируется защитить с помощью системы «постоянных маркеров», предназначенной для предупреждения посетителей как с помощью нескольких языков ( шесть языков ООН и навахо ), так и с помощью пиктограмм . Целевая группа по вмешательству человека обеспечила теоретическую основу для планов Соединенных Штатов по будущей ядерной семиотике .
	10,000	Планируемый срок существования нескольких текущих проектов Фонда «Долгое настоящее» , включая 10 000-летние часы, известные как « Часы долгого настоящего» , проект «Розетта» и проект «Длинная ставка» . Предполагаемый срок службы аналогового диска HD-Rosetta , пишущего носителя на никелевой пластине, вытравленного ионным лучом , технологии, разработанной в Национальной лаборатории Лос-Аламоса и позже коммерциализированной. (Проект Розетта использует эту технологию, названную в честь Розеттского камня .)
	10,000	в Норвегии Прогнозируемый срок службы глобального семенного хранилища на Шпицбергене .
	10,000	Наиболее вероятная предполагаемая продолжительность жизни технологической цивилизации, согласно Фрэнка Дрейка оригинальной формулировке уравнения Дрейка .
	10,000	Если тенденции глобализации приведут к панмиксии , генетические вариации человека больше не будут региональными, поскольку эффективный размер популяции будет равен фактическому размеру популяции.
	20,000	Согласно глоттохронологии лингвистической модели Морриса Сводеша , будущие языки должны сохранить только 1 из 100 «основных словарных» слов в своем списке Сводеша по сравнению со списком их нынешних прародителей.
	24,110	Период полураспада плутония -239 . В этот момент Чернобыльская зона отчуждения площадью 2600 квадратных километров (1000 квадратных миль), , территория Украины и Беларуси оставшаяся безлюдной из-за чернобыльской катастрофы 1986 года , вернется к нормальному уровню радиации.
	25,000	Послание Аресибо , набор радиоданных, переданных 16 ноября 1974 года, достигает места назначения — шарового скопления Мессье 13 . Это единственное межзвездное радиосообщение , отправленное в столь отдаленный регион галактики. Положение скопления в галактике сместится на 24 световых года за то время, пока сообщение достигнет его, но, поскольку диаметр скопления составляет 168 световых лет, сообщение все равно достигнет пункта назначения. Любой ответ займет как минимум еще 25 000 лет с момента его передачи (при условии отсутствия связи со скоростью, превышающей скорость света ).
	14 сентября 30828 г. н.э.	Максимальное системное время для 64-битной NTFS . на базе Windows операционной системы
	33,800	«Пионер-10» проходит в пределах 3,4 световых лет от Росс 248 .
	42,200	«Вояджер-2» проходит в пределах 1,7 световых лет от Росс 248.
	44,100	«Вояджер-1» проходит в пределах 1,8 световых лет от Глизе 445 .
	46,600	«Пионер-11» проходит в пределах 1,9 световых лет от Глизе 445.
	50,000	Расчетное время жизни в атмосфере тетрафторметана , самого стойкого парникового газа .
	90,300	«Пионер-10» проходит в пределах 0,76 световых лет от HIP 117795 .
	100,000+	Время, необходимое для терраформирования Марса с богатой кислородом пригодной для дыхания атмосферой, с использованием только растений с солнечной эффективностью, сравнимой с биосферой, существующей в настоящее время на Земле.
	100 000 – 1 миллион	Предполагаемое время, к которому человечество сможет колонизировать нашу галактику Млечный Путь и стать способным использовать всю энергию галактики , при условии, что скорость будет равна 10% скорости света .
	250,000	Предполагаемое минимальное время, в течение которого отработанный плутоний, в Нью-Мексико, хранящийся на экспериментальном заводе по изоляции отходов перестанет быть радиологически смертельным для человека.
	13 сентября 275760 г. н. э.	Максимальное системное время для языка программирования JavaScript .
	492,300	«Вояджер-1» проходит в пределах 1,3 световых лет от HD 28343 .
	1 миллион	Предполагаемый срок службы «Память человечества» (MOM) хранилища в стиле самостоятельного хранения в соляной шахте Гальштат в Австрии, в котором хранится информация на табличках с керамических надписями . Планируемый срок реализации проекта «Человеческие документы», разрабатываемого в Университете Твенте в Нидерландах.
	1 миллион	Текущие стеклянные предметы в окружающей среде будут разлагаться. Различные общественные памятники, состоящие из твердого гранита , в умеренном климате будут подвергаться эрозии на один метр, если предположить, что скорость эрозии составляет 1 единицу Бубнова (1 мм за 1000 лет или ≈1 дюйм за 25 000 лет). Без обслуживания Великая пирамида в Гизе разрушится до неузнаваемости. На Луне к Нила Армстронга «одного маленького шага» след на базе «Спокойствие» этому времени разрушится вместе со следами, оставленными всеми двенадцатью луноходами Аполлона , из-за накопленных эффектов космического выветривания . (Обычные эрозионные процессы, активные на Земле, отсутствуют из-за почти полного отсутствия атмосферы на Луне .)
	1,2 миллиона	«Пионер-11» проходит в пределах 3 световых лет от Дельты Щита .
	2 миллиона	«Пионер-10» проходит вблизи яркой звезды Альдебаран .
	2 миллиона	Виды позвоночных, разделенные на такой длительный срок, обычно подвергаются аллопатрическому видообразованию . Биолог-эволюционист Джеймс В. Валентайн предсказал, что, если за это время человечество будет рассеяно среди генетически изолированных космических колоний , в галактике появится эволюционное излучение множества человеческих видов с «разнообразием форм и адаптаций, которое поразит нас». Это был бы естественный процесс для изолированных популяций, не связанный с потенциальными технологиями преднамеренного генетического улучшения .
	4 миллиона	«Пионер-11» проходит вблизи одной из звезд созвездия Орла .
	7,2 миллиона	Без ухода гора Рашмор станет неузнаваемой.
	7,8 миллиона	, к этой дате человечество вымрет с вероятностью 95% , сформулированной Дж. Ричардом Готтом Согласно формулировке спорного аргумента Судного дня .
	8 миллионов	Наиболее вероятный срок службы бляшки «Пионера-10» до того, как гравировка будет разрушена плохо изученными процессами межзвездной эрозии. Орбиты спутников LAGEOS исчезнут, и они снова войдут в атмосферу Земли, неся с собой послание всем потомкам человечества в далеком будущем, а также карту континентов, какими они, как ожидается, тогда появятся.
	100 миллионов	Максимальная расчетная продолжительность жизни технологической цивилизации, согласно Фрэнка Дрейка оригинальной формулировке уравнения Дрейка .
	100 миллионов	Будущие археологи должны быть в состоянии идентифицировать «Городской слой » окаменевших крупных прибрежных городов , в основном по остаткам подземной инфраструктуры, такой как фундаменты зданий и инженерные туннели .
	1 миллиард	Предполагаемый срок службы « устройства памяти наночелнока », использующего наночастицы железа, перемещающиеся как молекулярный переключатель через углеродные нанотрубки , технология, разработанная в Калифорнийском университете в Беркли .
	1 миллиард	Предполагаемый срок службы двух Золотых пластинок "Вояджера" до того, как хранящаяся на них информация станет невосстановимой. Предполагаемое время для астроинженерного проекта по изменению орбиты Земли , компенсируя растущую яркость Солнца и миграцию обитаемой зоны наружу , достигаемую повторяющимися гравитационными воздействиями астероидов .
	292 277 026 596 г. н. э. (292 миллиарда)	Числовое переполнение системного времени для 64-битных систем Unix .
	10 20 (100 квинтиллионов)	Примерное время столкновения космических кораблей «Пионер» и «Вояджер» со звездой (или остатком звезды).
	3 × 10 19 – 3 × 10 21 (30 квинтиллионов – 3 секстиллионов)	Предполагаемый срок службы « кристалла памяти Супермена » для хранения данных с использованием фемтосекундным лазером в стекле, вытравленных наноструктур (технология, разработанная в Университете Саутгемптона) , при температуре окружающей среды 30 °C (86 °F; 303 К).

Графические временные шкалы

Графические временные шкалы и логарифмические временные шкалы этих событий см.:

• Графическая временная шкала Вселенной (до 8 миллиардов лет назад)
• Графическая хронология Звездной эры (до 10 ²⁰ через несколько лет)
• Графическая временная шкала от Большого Взрыва до Тепловой Смерти (до 10 ¹⁰⁰⁰ через несколько лет)

См. также

• Хронология Вселенной
• Подробный логарифмический график
• Далекое будущее в фантастике
• Далекое будущее в религии
• Список радиоактивных нуклидов по периоду полураспада
• Расположение Земли
• Порядки величины (время)
• Космос и выживание
• Хронология естественной истории
• Хронология ранней Вселенной
• Окончательная судьба вселенной

Ссылки

Библиография

• Адамс, Фред К. (2008). «Долговременные астрофизические процессы». В Бостроме, Ник; Чиркович, Милан М. (ред.). Глобальные катастрофические риски . Издательство Оксфордского университета . ISBN  978-0-19-857050-9 .
• Браунли, Дональд Э. (2010). «Обитаемость планет в астрономических масштабах времени» . В Шрийвере, Каролус Дж.; Сиско, Джордж Л. (ред.). Гелиофизика: развитие солнечной активности и климата космоса и Земли . Издательство Кембриджского университета . ISBN  978-0-521-11294-9 .